In the current globalEconomyAgainst the backdrop of heightened uncertainty, about the United StatesEconomyThere is a lot of talk about whether there will be a recession. Recently,Federal ReserveThe release of inflation data sparked market sentiment in the USRecessionof concerns. Legendary investorBillAckerman made a bold ** about this, arguing that the United StatesEconomyThere will be a recession in the first quarter of next year, and calledFederal ReserveIn advanceCut interest rates。This sparked a lot of interest in the United StatesRecessionWhether it is beyond the expected discussion. This article will analyze the United States from multiple perspectivesRecessionand the possible impact of the recession and countermeasures.
1. The risk of hard landing is reduced
The report released by the OECD argues that despite the expected United StatesEconomyThere will be a recession, but the risk of a hard landing has decreased. In their opinion, the United States will start only in the second half of next yearCut interest rates, and the eurozoneCut interest rateslater. This is because they thinkFederal ReserveIt is necessary to confirm whether there is a permanent decline in inflationary pressures before making a choiceCut interest rates。However,BillAckerman disagrees with this conservative judgment, he predictsFederal ReserveIt will be in the first quarter of next yearCut interest rates, and noted the United StatesEconomyA larger-than-expected recession is more likely.
2. The unemployment rate has risen
Unemployment rateIt's measuringEconomyOne of the important indicators of the situation. According to October employment data, the number of new jobs in the United States fell year-on-yearUnemployment rateIt also rose to 39%。According to Sam's Law, thisUnemployment rateIt's already triggeredRecessionThe early stages of the project. This indicates that unemployment in the United States has begun to show a downward trend.
3. Consumption support weakened
Consumption is AmericanEconomyOne of the important drivers of growth. However, the purchasing power of U.S. consumers is waning. For a long time, the United StatesEconomyThe growth depends mainly on the existence of the hegemony of the dollar every timeEconomyWhen there is a downturn,United States**withFederal ReserveYesEconomyProvide stimulus. For example, in 2020, Trump introduced an unlimited easing program to stimulateEconomyand support consumption by handing out funds to households. However, recent data shows that consumers have almost depleted these funds in the third quarter of the year, as evidenced by the increase in credit card default rates. Therefore, the United States, which has lost the support of consumptionEconomyIt could soon fall into recession.
4. Inflation is under control
Despite the fact that inflation is forEconomyGrowth is very important, but at the moment in the United StatesInflation rateIt has been controlled. The core of OctoberInflation rateslowed to 4%, a new recent low. This givesFederal Reserveconfidence in accommodative policy and reduced the likelihood of a larger-than-expected recession.
If the above reasons are taken into account, it can be concluded: the United StatesEconomyof recessions have already begun, although they are still in the early stages of a recession. That could mean, the United StatesEconomyThe landing is not onlyEconomyA soft landing for scientists, but a "hard landing" that exceeded expectations.
For such a larger-than-expected recession, the impact could include a recession in the housing sector and a slowdown in consumer spendingCreditdeterioration of quality, etc. In addition, the United StatesEconomyThe fundamentals have also been severely eroded, with total debt,InterestwithFiscal deficitsare increasing, and the risk of a dollar breakup is rising.
In dealing with such a recession, ** and central banks need to take appropriate measures. For example,Federal ReserveIt can be continuedCut interest rates, relaxedMonetary policy, forEconomyYesLiquidityIn the tank. At the same time, it can be stimulated by tax cuts, increased spending, etcEconomy, increase the spending power of the population, thereby promotingEconomyof resuscitation.
In addition, there is a need to strengthen fiscal regulation andRisk managementto prevent financial crises from occurring. withFinancial institutionsAssessments and appropriate measures need to be taken to ensure:financial systemstability andSustainability
At the same time, innovation and technological progress should also be encouraged to improveEconomycompetitiveness and resilience. In the current globalEconomyAgainst the backdrop of increased uncertainty, innovation and technological progress are realizedEconomyTransformation and growthCritical
Although there are some signs of the United StatesEconomyA larger-than-expected recession is possible, but we can't ignore the role of other factors. United States**EconomyIt still has some toughness and resilience. ** and central banks should pay close attentionEconomysituation and take appropriate measures to stabilizeEconomyand promote recovery. At the same time, individuals and enterprises should also enhance their risk awareness and adjust their business strategies to adaptEconomyDownside environment. In a word, for the United StatesRecessionWhether it exceeds expectations requires comprehensive consideration of a variety of factors, and corresponding preparations and countermeasures should be made.