Recently, there is a ** called "Precision Sniper Penguin, Option Trading Earns 30 Times" on the Internet, which said that someone advanced** Penguin's put option on December 21 and made 30 times, so the ** thinks that "the news has leaked".
So what is the truth of the matter, I will explain it in detail in today's article.
120,000 put options, widely quoted.
So what's the actual situation?
I went to look at the penguin options myself.
There are many varieties of options contracts with a **, and there will be different handicaps.
The ** mentioned this 1The 20,000 volume contract refers to the put option contract with an exercise price of 300 on Penguin expiring on December 28.
The problem, however, is that this 1The volume of 20,000 contracts is the total volume of the contract on December 22.
As a result, after this ** came out, a saying began to circulate on the Internet that "on December 21, someone **6-day penguin put option, more than 1.."20,000 sheets, less than one piece of single sheet. After the news was released on the 22nd, this put option rose to a maximum of 35 Hong Kong dollars, and the profit was more than 30 times in one day!”
This statement is quite eye-catching and has been widely replicated and disseminated.
But in fact, this 120,000 put options, which is the total trading volume of the contract on December 22, was transferred to "someone ** exceeded 1. on the 21st."20,000 put options on Penguin ».
Move the total trading volume on the 22nd to the 21st.
Distort the total volume of the contract into a single entity**.
This is clearly a rumor-mongering.
The fact is that the volume of the put option contract on the 21st was 7,130 contracts with a total turnover of HK$660,000.
As can be seen from the chart, before the news came out, the trading volume and transaction amount of the contract on the 21st were not obviously abnormal.
The trading volume on December 21 was 7,130 lots, which was higher than the level of the previous two days, but it was basically the same as the previous peak.
And because the contract fell to a minimum of 0. on December 2123 yuan, so the turnover on the 21st was only 660,000 yuan, which was basically the same as the previous average daily turnover amount, without abnormal amplification, and it was far lower than the turnover of 4.27 million yuan on December 8.
On December 22, the turnover of the contract quickly expanded to 15.35 million because the contract skyrocketed by 33 times.
So, a bunch of people spread this 120,000 put options, but they didn't mention that the total transaction amount was less than HK$1 million, because they knew that if they mentioned the amount, they would be exposed.
Then there was a change on the morning of the 22nd, and we can actually look at the 60-minute chart of the contract.
The chart below shows that before the news came out at 11:30 on the 22nd, the ** and trading volume of the contract were not abnormal.
It was after 11:30 on the 22nd that the volume, transaction amount, and ** trend of the contract fluctuated abnormally large.
Moreover, he said that "the news leaked" that someone accurately ** put option time, that is, 11 o'clock on the 21st, but he ** showed that the first accurate** put option was 688, but what he didn't say was that the 688 put options had a transaction amount of only 6850,000 Hong Kong dollars, ** is displayed on the screen.
As a result, this has become evidence of what he believes is a "leak".
In fact, the total turnover of the contract on the 21st was only HK$660,000, and even if we count the total turnover of the contract market as a certain person accurately** according to him.
So the question is, a person who has the ability to obtain such heavy inside information, knowing that there is an opportunity that can skyrocket dozens of times, will only **660,000 Hong Kong dollars to short?
Moreover, the ** does not compare the 21-day trading volume of the contract with the usual average daily trading volume at all, which is a deliberate selective ignorance.
Because he also knows that as long as he compares the trading volume on the 21st with the normal trading volume before, he will be exposed.
As a result, after such a misleading situation, people who don't know about options will think that no one usually buys this contract, and it suddenly increased so much trading volume on the 21st.
This is obviously a deliberate rumor-mongering tactic.
There are many options contracts, and we can also take a look at the options contracts in other Penguin markets.
For example, I randomly click on the put option contract on December 28 with a strike price of 280 yuan.
The contract skyrocketed 150 times on the 22nd, but the volume of the contract decreased on the 21st, but did not increase.
And we can see that the contract has been trading every day for the past two months, that is, people have traded put options on Penguin every day.
But that** said as if someone suddenly had a precise ** penguin put option on the 21st.
Then there was a big V who took the rumors of copying and pasting on the Internet, and also made a ** said, "At 12 noon on the 21st, at 1 pm and almost 4 o'clock, there were three put options of **Penguin 270 yuan exercise**, and these three *** were only about two cents, and they made a profit of more than 500 times a day!”
People who don't know about options will be shocked when they see this "profit of more than 500 times a day", and "enumerate" a few data with a nose and eyes on this statement will only feel unclear.
But I actually took a look, and the put option with the 270 yuan strike price of the penguin he said was traded in various time periods on the 21st, not just those three.
Moreover, the largest trading volume of the contract on the 21st was at 13:26, with 241 contracts traded, and the corresponding transaction amount was only 482 Hong Kong dollars, because the single contract was only 002 yuan**.
Market value of 1 option = option unit price x 100.
Therefore, it is a bit ridiculous for the person who concocted this rumor to use this kind of single transaction volume of only a few hundred yuan as evidence that he thinks "leaked news".
But they didn't say the specific transaction amount, only the number of tickets, to deliberately mislead the audience, the intentions are still more sinister, obviously to increase our negative emotions.
Penguin's put options contracts have funds hedging every day.
On December 21, these options contracts generally did not show unusual growth fluctuations, which were similar to usual.
Judging from the short selling records of Hong Kong stock penguins, the total amount of short selling on Thursday, December 21 did not increase abnormally, but was lower than the daily average level.
Penguins fell 12% on Friday, so it is normal for options to be put contracts expiring on December 28 to skyrocket by 30 times or hundreds of times, after all, the volatility is too great.
Moreover, there are capital transactions every day, and the overall trading volume of the 21st day right has not been enlarged.
It can be seen that the ** only based on the contract option** soared 33 times, and it is considered that the news is leaking and is not reliable.
This is a classic reversal of effect.
Preset the results first, and then look for the arguments.
Therefore, the so-called "put option skyrocketing dozens of times" alone cannot confirm that there is "leakage news", but it cannot be falsified.
I don't know if there is any leakage, after all, there is no shortage of such things in history.
I'm just talking about things here, and I can't just use options to make a profit of dozens of times and then come to the conclusion of "leaking news".
If someone feels that "leaked information", more evidence needs to be presented.
Although it is not uncommon for some people to rely on inside information to make profits around the world, if this kind of inside information leaks in advance, it will usually be reflected in the stock price in advance.
In fact, looking at the trend of the A-share game sector, the trend on Thursday and Friday mornings was still normal, and it fell directly after the opening at noon.
Penguin's stock price also began to dive at 11:30 on the 22nd.
And this time the news was released around 11:23.
In addition, some people say that there was this news at 3 o'clock in the morning on the 22nd, but I searched around and didn't find it, it should just be a **display error, and someone took a screenshot.
If the news came out at more than 3 o'clock in the morning, it would be impossible for Hong Kong stocks and A shares to react in early trading.
After the news came out at 11:23, it did not instantly trigger a dive in the game plate.
The penguins were very precise and did not dive until 11:30 a.m.
From this point of view, this time the news is still very tightly covered, at least it has not leaked out in advance on a large scale.
The big money of A-shares is also very sensitive, and there have been some news in the past before the landing, some sectors have funds entering or leaving the market in advance, but this will be intuitively reflected in the trend.
But this time, at least I didn't see such a large-scale trend of early leakage.
As an aside, I personally think that there is nothing wrong with the content of the new regulations, but the timing of the release is not very good, and there is a lack of expectation management, which amplifies the negative impact.
If it can be released after the market, the negative impact of ** will be reduced a lot.
Some people may also say that if there is no leak, why did they go to short Penguin in advance.
This still has to introduce the knowledge of options.
First of all, I would like to emphasize that ** and options such a highly leveraged market, I have always strongly recommended ** do not touch, if ** is 80% of people lose money, then ** and options are 99% of people lose money, gambling is too strong.
I'm just here to make it easier for you to understand this matter, and I'm going to explain options.
Options are different from **, options are a bit like lottery tickets, with different contract "handicaps".
For example, the figure below refers to the contract that expires on December 28 and has different exercises.
Take the put contract with a strike price of 280 in Turi as an example, which means that if the penguin stock price is less than $280 on December 28, the contract will have value, for example, if the penguin stock price is $270 on December 28, the contract will have actual value.
But if on December 28, the penguin's share price is higher than or equal to 280 yuan, then the contract will be worthless, directly to zero, and the money to buy the contract will be wasted.
It's like buying a football lottery, you bet on the opponent to score more than 5 goals in this game, and if the opponent scores less than or equal to 5 goals, you can't get back the money you paid for the lottery ticket.
The characteristics of options are that the larger the difference between the contract you buy and the current price, the shorter the time, the smaller the probability of realization, and the greater the leverage. Once you reach your goal, the greater the multiplier.
For example, before the 22nd**, the market believes that the probability of falling below $280 before December 28 is very low, so the market gives only 008 yuan**, basically belongs to the meaning that no one believes that it will fall below 280.
However, because of the Penguin's single-day **12% on the 22nd, the stock price fell directly from 312 yuan to 274 yuan, which has fallen below 280 yuan.
Therefore, the market directly gave this 280 yuan put contract 12 yuan **, which directly skyrocketed 150 times.
The ** of 12 yuan, part of which is the actual value, and part of which is the time value.
The actual value is the exercise price of 280 yuan minus the difference of 274 yuan in the spot, so the actual value of the contract is currently 6 yuan, and the other 6 yuan is the time value.
In put options, there is an actual value, which is called a money-for-money contract.
If the current contract has no real value, only time value, then it is called an out-of-the-money contract.
Deep out-of-the-money contracts** are usually cheap because the lower the probability of realization, the greater the leverage.
It's like in the football lottery, if you bet on a dark horse, the odds will be very large.
Conversely, if you bet on the favorite, the probability is relatively large, the leverage will be smaller, and the odds will be small.
The ** of the option contract will decrease over time, which is one of the main features of options.
This time value also includes the volatility value.
To put it simply, in the case of you betting in the right direction, the greater the volatility, the higher the time value, and the higher the option.
Because of the large fluctuations, the probability of achieving the goal**, whether it is a positive or negative goal**, is also greater.
Option buyers can use a small premium to bet on the characteristics of large returns, so at the beginning of the design of options, they are used to insure with spot funds.
For example, if there is a large amount of money holding a large amount of **, but he is afraid of extreme ***, he can take out one-thousandth of the spot funds to buy put options.
If the Penguin's stock price rises by more than 10%** during the period when he holds the put option, the put option he holds may skyrocket by a hundredfold, just enough to make up for the loss of a large spot position.
Therefore, this is equivalent to spending money to buy a "consumer insurance" to ensure that it will prevent extreme *** in the future
Funds can also choose to buy mildly out-of-the-money contracts, just to prevent small fluctuations**.
Of course, there are many ways to play and strategy options, and this insurance strategy is just one of them.
For example, the more important way to play with a big capital is to be a seller and earn the time value of the option steadily.
If the volatility is not large and long-term, then the value of the option in the buyer's hand will decrease over time, and the seller can earn a steady income.
However, if the volatility is amplified violently, the seller will bear huge risks and losses.
And most of the ** play options, usually as a buyer, is simply used for gambling, when the lottery is played, do not need to hold spot.
Therefore, there is a way to play options called betting on the doomsday round contract, which is to pick the contract that is close to exercising, because there is no time value, so as long as there is a little fluctuation, there will be a huge amplitude, but on the contrary, if there is no huge fluctuation, the contract will be zero, which is a very high-risk game, but as long as the bet is right, there will be dozens of times, hundreds of times the return.
Therefore, whether it is U.S. stocks or Hong Kong stocks, there are actually a large number of funds in the most deep put out-of-the-money contracts every day.
As long as there is a huge fluctuation, we can hear that there are options contracts that have risen dozens of times or hundreds of times, which is very normal in options, and it cannot be used to infer that there are funds to get the news in advance.
For example, after a long period of continuous decline, lithium carbonate suddenly rose on December 7, so the "doomsday round" call option of lithium carbonate also soared 400 times intraday.
Therefore, it does not prove that there are funds to bet in advance and engage in insider trading, because there are funds hedging and betting every day.
Ordinary people don't understand the characteristics of options, and they think that this is a very rare thing, so they are misled by some people with ulterior motives who use the funds to short Penguin and make dozens or hundreds of times more money.
In the current **continuous** situation, people's negative emotions are bursting, which also makes this kind of eye-catching rumors have a large market, and will also amplify our **negative emotions.
Therefore, I made this **, a detailed clarification and explanation, hoping to help you think rationally.
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