With 2022U.S. GDPIt is expected to exceed $25 trillion, and the gap with China's GDP is expected to widen further due to inflation and exchange rate factors. However, the widening gap does not fully reflect the reality of China and the United StatesEconomyGap. Among them, the inflation problem is the causeU.S. GDPOne of the core causes of inflatedness. As the U.S. experienced sharp inflation last year, prices** led to an increase in nominal GDP, and in real termsEconomic growthNot an exact match. In contrast, the Chinese onecpiThe data is relatively stable, even deflationary, and stable prices make China's GDP growth more reliable in a practical sense.
In addition, exchange rates also have an impact on the GDP figures of China and the United States. Considering that the global GDP is measured in US dollars, the US dollar has continued to strengthen in recent years, and other currencies have depreciated relatively, resulting in a decline in GDP in other countries when converted into US dollars. In this case,RMBis under pressure, further increasing the number of China and the United StatesEconomyThe "culprit" of the gap.
Despite the widening gap between the US and China's GDP, the outlook is relatively optimistic from an exchange rate perspective. withU.S. interest rate hikesThe end of the cycle andCut interest ratesof the beginning,U.S. dollar exchange rateIt is expected to decline,RMBThe exchange rate is expected to strengthen, thereby narrowing the GDP gap between China and the United States.
According to the CME, the probability of the Fed ending its rate hikes is gradually decreasing, and it is even expected in 2024Cut interest ratesThe probability of 100-125 basis points is more than 50%. It is worth noting that the Fed has also begun to mention itCut interest ratespossibilities. The move shows that while inflation remains high, there is no room for the Fed to continue raising interest rates in the face of a deepening fiscal crisis. Fiscal deficitsThis will further increase the debt burden and create a vicious circle. Therefore, the future if the United States startsCut interest rates, which is likely to bring about a big reversal.
To better assess the countryEconomyThe level of development, just looking at the GDP data has limitations. The most important thing is to improve the living standards of the people and pay attention to the practicalEconomyDevelopment, not paper. in the settlementEconomyWhen it comes to disparities, we need to look globalEconomyand policy measures of various countries to achieve a more stable and sustainable situationEconomyDevelop.
China and the United StatesEconomyThe widening gap does not fully reflect the reality of the two countriesEconomyGap. Among them, the inflation problem in the United States has led to an inflated nominal GDP, while China's stable prices have made GDP growth more reliable. In addition, exchange rate factors are also important for China and the United StatesEconomyThe gap has an impact,RMBThe pressure on the exchange rate has made the GDP ratio between China and the United States even more unfavorable. However, withU.S. interest rate hikesThe end of the cycle andCut interest ratesAt the beginning of the exchange, the exchange rate factor is expected to reverse, in order to narrow the Sino-US sideEconomyThe gap creates the conditions. Ultimately, we should focus on a more holistic approachEconomyindicators, focusing on realityEconomyDevelop and improve the living standards of the population.