Real estate has entered the "post-development era". Feng Lun believes that the future industrialization of housing can solve the problem of "thunderstorms".Text: "Chinese Entrepreneur" reporter Li YanyanEdited by Zhao Jiankai
Meeting site
On December 9th and 10th, the "21st Annual Meeting of Chinese Business Leaders" sponsored by China Entrepreneur magazine was grandly held. On the first day of the "Mentor Class" session, Feng Lun, Chairman of Yufeng Group and founder of Vantone Group, gave a keynote speech on "Using Technological Innovation to Get Residential Development Out of the Dilemma".
Key takeaways:
1.Real estate has entered the "post-development era" from the past "development era".
2.In the future, the overall market will remain below 10 trillion yuan, of which four or five trillion yuan will be for new houses.
3.The regional market is more important, the market segment should be deeply cultivated, and the residential market stratification should pay special attention to its own positioning.
4.In the future real estate industry, residential industrialization can solve the problem of thunderstorms, because houses are finished products and will not be unfinished.
5.The construction of affordable housing has become a top priority. Affordable housing is dominated by **, and this will probably rise to 60%.
The following is a transcript of Mr. Feng Lun's on-site speech (with deletion):
It's a pleasure to share it with you here. The real estate industry has been concerned by everyone for almost 20 years, and there are many stories every day, but recently "thunder is rolling", most real estate developers are under great pressure, and there are many "thunderstorms" happening. In addition, it is also a "burst of footsteps", * a lot of policies have been introduced to stimulate demand and stimulate supply, so we say: thunder rolls, footsteps burst.
How do I see this process as a practitioner?Recently, I think there are four most important changes worth noting.
First, times have changed. Real estate has entered the "post-development era" from the past "development era". What does "development era" mean?That is to say, before the per capita GDP reaches 10,000 US dollars, we are in a real estate era of high-speed development, construction, sales and turnover with housing as the core, and this development era is a phased product of economic development, not forever.
I often go to the United States, and I ask them, why is there no company like Vanke?They say that 30 years ago such a company ended. For a period of time after World War II, the United States and European countries experienced a stage of high-speed housing construction, about twenty or thirty years, but this time ended 30 years ago.
Another time, their boss took me by helicopter to see a piece of land, and I told him about our Chinese house method. He said that I didn't understand Mr. Feng at all, not that I was ignorant, but that everyone couldn't understand him. Why?He said the story had long been untold in the United States. That is to say, in a stage of economic development, housing is the core product, and such a stage of high-speed construction has also experienced more than 20 years in our country, and now, we have also entered a new stage of real estate narrative.
The story of real estate in advanced economies is probably a "1+7" story, and before our per capita GDP is 10,000 US dollars, we only have one story, called "housing". The "7" of "1+7" refers to "7" different real estate categories, office buildings, commercial, hotel and vacation, logistics and warehousing, medical and health care, education and research and development, and ** property.
In addition to the level of economic development, there are several particularly important factors that affect the development of the residential market, which have prompted the residential market to enter the stage of deceleration, price reduction and volume reduction. First, the current slowdown in population growth and the aging trend should reduce the number of residential buildings. Second, the economic development model has shifted from simple extension and rapid growth, focusing on urbanization, to connotative high-quality development, and the economic and industrial pattern of some cities has also undergone many changes, with uneven local economic development and slowing down the increase in housing.
One more factor,Financial and institutional changes have also had a significant impact on housing. For example, our tax system, the future inheritance system, the exchange rate, the interest on bank loans, the policy of housing not speculation, and so on. Real estate has entered the post-development era, "1" has slowed down, but "7" has accelerated, and "7" has accelerated the most in two things related to us
The first is logistics and warehousing, which have three products that are now developing the fastest. Separately: one is the cold chain, the second is intelligent warehousing, and the third is the data analysis center. Twenty years ago, there was a special real estate company in the United States, we didn't understand it at the time, I always thought it was an Internet company, and finally I realized that it was a real estate company. Why?There are a lot of servers in this house, the house can collect rent, and the power consumption is very large, and the requirements for security are very high. This kind of house that constantly charges a stable rent is called a data center, and the rate of return is particularly stable, and this kind of property is also a very important kind of logistics and warehousing. This is what we now call "new real estate".
The second is medical health. Our company has been doing real estate around medical and health care for the last seven or eight years, and the fastest growing space in the world is also related to physical health. In addition to hospitals, we have a lot of health-related space needs. One of the largest spaces in the world, with the largest number of medical aesthetic institutions, in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, South Korea, a 200,000-square-meter house is full of faces and nails.
In addition, we also have the best field layout. Our daily running, fitness, and yoga are all related to health, and these things need a lot of property support, and this kind of property becomes a real estate related to health. We have made a lot of such products in recent years, such as industrial parks, medical malls, healing hotels, health apartments, etc.
Therefore, we say that "7" is very important, this is the new real estate, and the main direction is medical health and logistics warehousing. We have entered a new era, and real estate has entered a comprehensive "1+7" development stage from a single residential development, which is called the "post-development era".
The second and most important change is the market change.
For one, market segmentation is becoming increasingly important. As we all know, the era of flood irrigation and rapid development has passed, and market segmentation is very important. How much has the reduction been reduced, the original real estate market with a scale of nearly 16 trillion (sales) in 2019, new houses plus old houses, and now we have reduced it to less than 10 trillion, almost halved. In the future, the overall market will remain below 10 trillion yuan, of which four or five trillion yuan will be for new houses.
After the reduction, how to subdivide?For example, the women's segment. When I went to Taiwan, China, I saw that they were very finely divided, called single not living alone, single living alone. There are some elderly people who need to be cared for, some are blue-collar workers, some are rental, some are sales, some are two-generational residents, and some are single and a small family. The smallest unit can now be 17 square meters, which is a market segment.
Second, regional markets. Now, the difference between the regional market and the national market is becoming clearer. In the past, large housing companies were the same as the whole country, and one drawing was done all over the country, but now they are deeply engaged in the regional market, and the growth of housing is greater in developed areas, areas with concentrated populations, and areas with a higher degree of openness. On the contrary, in underdeveloped areas, closed areas, and areas with declining industries, the market has shrunk sharply, so the market cannot do it. So now, companies with a large amount of residential development are all shrinking their fronts, and the number of companies in underdeveloped areas is very small.
Third, market stratification. For example, what we are talking about now is affordable housing, and commercial housing is commercial housing. China's affordable housing (proportion) is now less than 30%, and it is proposed to develop to 60% in the future, and affordable housing is affordable housing, low-rent housing and houses where people with low and middle income levels live. Affordable housing and luxury housing are two majors, and the requirements are different.
So, the fundamental change that has taken place in the housing market isThe regional market is more important, the market segment should be deeply cultivated, and the market stratification should pay special attention to your own positioning, and you should do it in the stratified market.
The third change is that the level of technological development will have a fundamental change in housing.
In recent years, the level of technological development in the housing sector has completely changed my perception of traditional housing. For example, in the past, everyone's traditional view of housing was to build a house with reinforced concrete, lay ground, and then sell and decorate, and the process went down, two and a half to three years. Houses built of cement have a useful life, and they are highly polluting, and the earthquake-proof structure is not elastic enough. In addition, the cost of electricity for building a house is relatively high.
How far has our housing technology advanced now?After 14 years of R&D and investment, Yuanda Technology Group now builds a house that is completely comparable to building a car and an industrialized house, which is a house made of an assembly line, which can do 60,000 square meters a day, and 12 million square meters can be done in 200 days a year, and we have 2 million square meters in the past 15 or 20 years to complete, and now the speed is so fast.
From the start of a project to the foundation to the completion of the house, the factory housing takes less time, and it can be completed in two to three months. This house comes down from the assembly line, then pulls it over in a container, and finally assembles it on site, which is two to three months. And it is finely decorated, and the standard is much better than what we bought ourselves. To use an analogy,Cars are definitely more refined than tractors, and factory assembly lines are fast.
Second, the standard is high, and the kitchen and bathroom configuration and air conditioning fresh air system are one level higher than the current one. Plus, it's cheaper, why?The bigger the factory, the cheaper it is. Tesla to China, at the beginning of more than 700,000 units, how many now?200,000. Finally, operating costs are low, and electricity bills are one-third the size of a traditional home.
Therefore, the progress of science and technology has accelerated the transformation of the housing industry. For the real estate of the future, the problem of thunderstorms can be solved with industrialized housing, because the housing is a finished product, no longer a semi-finished product, nor will it be unfinished, it is a house that is directly pulled over.
In addition, there is no need for high-leverage development, and it can be served in a financial way. In addition, all the products will not become vacant houses, assuming that 10 houses are made, 5 are sold, and the remaining 5 are not sold, then, if there is another project, it can be removed, moved, and installed again, so there is no vacancy and no backlog. This is the impact of technological progress on the industry.
The color of science and technology in the future housing field is not only reflected in the production, but also in the transaction. As you know, now when buying and selling houses, the agent gives you **, and you think that he seems to be beating randomly, but in fact, he is playing accurately. Now the broker gets an accurate **, about 40 yuan to 1200 yuan. If I open a brokerage firm, I need to know who might buy itWhere do I find **?
In fact, there are such data companies that provide such ** information, and they can find out potential buyers from the massive information. Behind these is all technology, and now the participation of artificial intelligence can quickly screen out who wants to buy a house, and tell you, how much is this house?How many times have you traded in history?What is the valuation?That way you'll be able to make a decision quickly.
Technological advancements are essential for quality assurance and efficient transactions in the housing industry.
Finally, there is another important change in the future of real estate, which is the change of the system. I have been in business for more than 30 years. The real estate industry has been saying that we are faced with a dual choice between the market and the system.
When it comes to real estate, there are basically three systems that have been changing, one is completely solved by the market, and the other is solved by leasing, and in principle, commercial housing is not developed. There is also a "Singapore system", 20% of which is the competition of commercial housing and market-oriented development, and the remaining 80% is docked by the first and does not enter the commercial housing market. For more than 20 years of real estate development in China, these three systems have been tried, and they are still being adjusted.
While the market sometimes faces some particularly difficult choices, we can also see some important changes in the future. For example, **emphasis,The construction of affordable housing has become a top priority. Affordable housing is dominated by **, which will probably rise to 60%, and 40% is commercial housing, which is left to the market to compete and decide. Such a change in the system is very important for the future development of our industry.
Therefore, the four changes that I am talking about today: the advent of the post-development era, the stratification of the housing market, the change of housing by scientific and technological progress, and the changes in China's housing system in the future, these contents are very important to us. In this context,Generally speaking, housing prices have entered an era of stability and decline. If we are in a market segment and have a good product that stands up, it may also go up.
In this process, it should also be noted that the existing laws in China are not clear about property rights, for example, housing we used to be a house ownership certificate and a state-owned land use right certificate, which together are real estate property rights certificates. Our house is 70 years old, used 20 to 30 years, how to get it in the back time?In fact, there are not many agreements that clearly charge fees. Therefore, there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the future of these property rights.
Therefore, we need to be cautious about future residential investments. Because its property rights are incomplete. In the current transaction process, all properties that are less than 20 years old, such as office and commercial buildings, are generally 40 years or 50 years, and now no one has bought them after 20 years. This may also be the case in the future for residences. Assuming that there are still 20 years left in this house (when the house capital expires), I don't know how much to receive, how to invest in this case?So,The residential rental market will get better and better in the future, but investment needs to be more and more cautious.
In short, the real estate industry, especially since the beginning of the commercialization process, there is one criterion that has not changed, that is, to create a fixed man-made space in which we live and develop. The real estate industry is here to staySo we pay attention to this industry, and in the future, this industry will also enter the stage of sustainable development, so that real estate will enter the stage of real industrialization.