In 2023, the European Power Exhibition will be held in Paris, France, with a total of 12,000 attendees and 700+ international exhibitors participating in the grand event. The next European Power Show will take place in Milan, Italy, from October 22 to 24, 2024. Organizer: Guangzhou Baisheng Exhibition.
European Power Show 2024 Market Analysis
Europe's political response to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine was to accelerate the power transition. The focus now is on rapidly cutting gas demand while phasing out coal. This means that a massive expansion of clean energy is underway.
In 2022, wind and solar accounted for one-fifth (22%) of the EU's electricity, surpassing fossil energy (20%) for the first time and continuing to outperform coal (16%).
However, the twin crises of Europe's electricity system in 2022 have put the shift away from fossil fuels on hold. A once-in-500-year drought across Europe has led to the lowest level of hydropower generation in at least 2,000 years, as well as widespread power shortages. Just as Germany's nuclear power plants were shutting down, there was an unexpected nuclear blackout in France. This creates a power generation gap of 185 TWh, equivalent to 7% of Europe's total electricity demand in 2022. Five sixths of that shortfall is made up by more wind and solar power generation and a drop in electricity demand. But the remaining sixth is met by an increase in fossil production. As coal is cheaper than natural gas, coal accounts for the majority of the increase and will increase by 7% (+28 TWh) in 2022 compared to 2021. As a result, EU electricity sector emissions increased by 39%（+26 mtco2）。2022 compared to 2021. There was little change in natural gas power generation (+0.).8%), and since natural gas was already more expensive than coal in 2021, there will be no more switching from natural gas to coal in 2022.
The situation could be even worse: declining demand for wind, solar, and electricity is hindering a larger-scale return of coal. Overall, the growth is modest: in 2022, coal power grew by just 15 percentage points, or 16% of the EU's electricity, is still below 2018 levels. Coal power generation in the EU increased by 28 TWh, accounting for only 03%。
In 2023, the situation will be completely reversed. Hydropower will be generated, nuclear power units will return in France, wind and solar deployments will accelerate, and electricity demand is likely to continue to decline in the coming months. In 2023, fossil fuels (coal power, especially natural gas) will fall sharply in Europe.
Italy was the 7th largest economy in the world in 2008, after the United States, China, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and France, according to the GDP data of the International Currency**. Italy is one of the four largest economies in Europe and a member of the G8 and the European Union.
At the end of the Second World War, Italy went from a weak economy based on agriculture to a highly industrialized country and a world leader in terms of international growth and exports. Not only that, but the Italian economy is about the same size as the British economy.
Italy has a high Human Development Index and ranks 28th in the world, surpassing Greece. Italy's ** reserves are 2,4518 metric tons, ranking fourth in the world, behind the International Monetary Organization**, the United States and Germany, and surpassing France and China. Italy's capitalist economy is made up of large, developed private industry in the north and traditional agriculture in the south. Italy is also known for its influential and innovative business, its industrious and competitive agriculture, its innovative and high-quality automotive and electrical industries, and its apparel design.
Coal power in Europe is now declining.
The last four months of 2022 saw a decline in coal power generation. Compared to the same period in 2021, there was a decrease of 6% from September to December (-9.).6 twh）。This is mainly due to the decline in electricity demand. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the average utilization rate of the 26 coal-fired units restored to emergency standby was only 18%; Nine of the 26 units did not provide any power generation. These backup increments only increased EU coal power generation by 09%。Although 22 million tonnes of additional coal were imported throughout 2022, only one-third of that was used by the EU and the remaining two-thirds remained unused. Perhaps most encouragingly, countries remain as committed to phasing out coal as they were before the crisis.
Electricity demand began to decline rapidly.
Electricity demand in the EU has begun to decline rapidly, falling by 7 in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the same period last year9%, a decrease close to the 96%。This trend is observed in all EU countries. Before October, the decline was much smaller. All three months of the fourth quarter of 2022 were warmer than in 2021, but weather alone cannot explain such a large decline. The temporary cuts are likely to be largely due to concerns about affordability and the fact that many citizens have come together to cut energy demand and improve energy efficiency in times of crisis. This shift will eventually lead to a significant increase in demand through electrification. With the development of heat pumps, electric vehicles, and electrolyzers in 2022, it is clear that this change will happen soon. We must not allow the current decline in demand to slow down the rollout of clean energy.
The solar boom has just begun.
In 2022, solar power generation grew by a record 39 TWh (+24%), helping to avoid €10 billion in gas costs. This is due to a record 41 GW of installed capacity in 2022, a 47% increase from 2021. 20 EU countries achieved the highest share of solar power ever. The Netherlands leads the way, with 14% of its electricity coming from solar energy, surpassing coal for the first time. Greece ran on renewables for just five hours in October and is on track to reach its target of 8 GW of solar power by 2030 by the end of 2023, seven years ahead of schedule. In 2022, wind and solar accounted for more than one-fifth (22%) of the EU's electricity for the first time.
Natural gas power generation will hit an all-time high in 2023.
Fossil power generation increased by 3% in 2022. According to the latest industry**, this situation will not be repeated in 2023. With many nuclear power plants in France set to resume in 2023 (many of which are already back in operation), European wind and solar industry groups have shown that solar and wind power generation should grow by around 20%, hydropower inventories are close to normalisation, and electricity demand is likely to continue to decline in the near term. As Germany completes the phase-out of nuclear power, the only obstacle will be a decline in nuclear power generation. Based on these signs from the industry, Ember estimates that fossil power generation could plummet by 20% in 2023, double the pre-2020 record. Coal power generation will decline, but natural gas generation will fall the fastest, as natural gas generation is still expected to be higher than in 2020. Based on current forwards**, coal is going to last until at least 2025. The power sector is likely to be the segment with the fastest decline in gas demand in 2023, which has helped the European gas market return to calm as Europe adjusts to life without Russian gas.