Why is Ten Hag's pessimistic assessment of United's prospects for the winter turn entirely justified?
If United fans are looking to sign a couple of new signings in the January transfer window to turn around the team's often disappointing performances on the pitch this season, Ten Hag may have poured cold water on him.
Not that the reconstruction is complete – it is obvious to anyone. In an interview with the fan magazine United We Stand, Ten Hag stressed the importance of improving his squad of players.
We have to develop and improve this team. In fact, as we head into the next summer transfer window, there will be new signings coming in. Ten Hag said.
That being said, what about January?
I don't think (there are new signings). Ten Hag added: "As a club, you have to look for improvements. So, if you find a better [player] that is financially realistic and in line with the Financial Fair Play Act (FFP), I think the club needs to go for it. ”
But as far as market reality goes, most of the time, you won't attract the best players in the winter window. Top players will not leave in the winter window. Players who have moved in the winter window have either been disappointed, injured, or not suitable for the team. ”
Overall, Ten Hag is right. In his first year in charge, United's winter transfer window proved that view to some extent, when the Reds were in at least one of three scenarios he listed.
Weghorst has scored just two goals in 31 games and is undoubtedly disappointing, although his unquestionable appearance shows that he is still often favoured over other strikers.
Sabitzer's short-term addition to midfield is not as good as it could be – a deal he quickly struck after Christian Eriksen's ankle injury – but not a suitable option for the long term. Butland was signed by United as a goalkeeper substitute after Dubravka was recalled by Newcastle but did not play a single minute.
All of this seems to support the idea that a month-long winter transfer window is usually slower than a summer window. Clubs tend to save priority deals for later in the year. But this is more of a guideline than a rule. There are still high-quality players until the clock rolls to the next period.
In January last year, Chelsea broke the Premier League transfer fee record by signing Enzo. Previously, they had already agreed a transfer agreement with Europe's most promising young full-back, Gusto.
Also in January last year, Gordon joined Newcastle and Gakpo joined Liverpool. In January the year before, the two clubs signed Guimarães and Luis Dias respectively, while Manchester City brought in Alvarez.
Then there was the only regular first-team starter in the last four years to join United in January – United's most influential player at the time, their captain Bruno Fernandez.
In other words, to borrow a phrase from Sir Alex Ferguson in early 2010, it was not that "there was nothing good in the market", but that the Glazer family had a detrimental effect on United's transfer business by refinancing through the issuance of high-yield bonds.
But "nothing good on the market" is essentially Ten Hag's argument. While there is some truth to it, it is not so much a lack of choice as a financial dilemma that is the constraint.
Just a few months ago, Manchester United was fined €300,000 by UEFA for breaching the Financial Fair Play Act (FFP).£70,000, 32$30,000), but luckily – they won't be required to do a break-even assessment this season, just like other European clubs, during the transition to the new FFP rules.
However, Manchester United's compliance with the Premier League's profitability and sustainability rules (P&S) remains a real issue. The pre-tax loss for the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 seasons is as high as 1£8.2 billion (2$2.9 billion), leaving the club with little room to manoeuvre.
Under the P&S rules, Premier League clubs are allowed to lose 10.5 billion pounds (1$3.2 billion) – but crucially, £90 million of them (1$1.3 billion) must be subsidized by the club's owner.
Given that the Glazer family are known for their penny of a dime, United may need to meet a lower £15 million ($19 million) deficit this season to avoid breaches. And it's still difficult to determine what deductions clubs can use – such as Covid losses, the development of women's football, youth development and community work.
Despite the penalty for breaking the lower limit of losses, Everton has lost 1 in the last three years£2.5 billion (1.)US$5.7 billion) was deducted 10 points to the harsh side, but the ruling shows that the Premier League is not afraid to sanction clubs that are struggling to make ends meet.
Therefore, Manchester United need to spend their money carefully. This is despite the fact that they have spent 1£6.3 billion (2$0.5 billion) may not be obvious, but more caution is warranted before the transfer window closes.
Only the deal for Dean Henderson's £15million move to Crystal Palace will be completed for Amrabat, Sergio Reguilon and the relatively cheap, £4.3 million signing of goalkeeper Baindir from Fenerbahce.
The short-term loan spells of Amrabat and Sergio Reguilon on short-term loans at Weghorst, Sabitzer and Butland earlier this year speak for themselves.
*Players are one of the ways to achieve greater P&S fiscal clearance. The departures of Harry Maguire or Scott McTominay could have helped increase the summer budget, but the duo have regained Ten Hag's trust and become regular starters.
Jadon Sancho is the most high-profile player in United's transfer window right now. Despite more than £200,000 (25.).$2 a week, which could be a stumbling block for clubs outside the Saudi Pro League to sign him.
Donny van de Beek is another player United would like to listen to. But after spending more than two years on the fringes in the first team, he may also struggle to make a move.
Anyone who believes Sir Ratcliffe will soon emerge like a white knight, going crazy in the January transfer window with his 25% minority stake, may be disappointed.
The problem is that the INEOS-led sporting structure is not expected to be completed by the time the winter window opens. And, as there has been no official announcement, it's hard to say whether INEOS will be officially in place before the transfer window closes.
Once Ratcliffe's investment is confirmed, it is likely that it will also need to be approved by the Premier League. While this process is unlikely to be an obstacle, it may also take 6-8 weeks to complete all the relevant paperwork.
As things stand, those close to the INEOS bid are not counting on any official impact on United's transfer in January. But that doesn't necessarily rule out the possibility of an impact through other channels – other influences can be expected when a £1.3bn** deal in exchange for sporting control – but only once new management is in place can the deal be led and executed.
Once in place, Ratcliffe will also undertake a comprehensive review of the internal structure of the football department. This will almost certainly continue beyond the winter window deadline of 11 p.m. on Feb. 1.
So, no matter how you do the math, Ten Hag's estimate of the club's prospects in the upcoming transfer window seems to be accurate.
Whether it's 'nothing good on the market', the financial situation or the state of change at the club's hierarchy, United cannot be expected to improve on their disappointing season so far with January signings.