2024 must be the year when the dust settles on the world pattern.
After many years of competition and cold war between the democratic camp and the authoritarian camp, the situation has become quite clear, and the authoritarian camp is completely at a disadvantage. There is a high probability that the self-throwing net against the democratic camp initiated by Russia will come to an end in 2024, so that the world will basically be dominated by the democratic camp, and the world pattern formed after World War II will be basically adjusted and will be stable for a long time.
Although there will still be small-scale geopolitical conflicts in a world dominated by the democratic camp, because Russia, the world's biggest destabilizing factor, has been contained, other small geopolitical conflicts will not set off any big waves, and they can be completely controlled by the democratic camp. Just like the Hamas in Palestine, the United States only needs to send a few aircraft carriers to suppress the field.
Below, we might as well make an extremely rough analysis of the world situation in 2024.
First, the strength of the US-led democratic camp has increased unprecedentedly
No matter how some authoritarian countries sing the praises of the United States and the West, since Russia launched the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the influence and strength of the United States and the Western camp have entered the fast lane, not only more small countries are rushing to join the United States and the West, but even China, Russia, Iran and other major countries have also lowered their posture towards the United States and the West, especially the United States. For example, the Chinese side has made it clear that it has no idea of replacing or surpassing the United States;In the predicament of internal and external troubles, Russia has recently made it clear that it hopes to establish good relations with the United StatesIran's desire to improve relations with the United States has always been strong, but many of their practices are unacceptable to the United States.
In 2024, the expansion of the US-Western camp will reach its peak, and more countries and even some authoritarian countries, such as Venezuela, may quickly throw themselves into the arms of the US and the West.
Second, there is a high probability that Russia will withdraw its troops from Ukraine and turn to the West. A Russian-Ukrainian war has caused Russia to lose almost all the capital of arguing with the United States and the West. Putin** also knows very well that he has long been defeated in the Russian-Ukrainian war, but he can't find a decent ending. Although they have thousands of boxes of eggs in their hands, it's okay to bluff people with their mouths, if they really beat the boxes of eggs, it will be self-destruction. They started the war to live a better life, not to destroy themselves. Therefore, when they saw that they didn't bluff people, they were embarrassed to mention the box of eggs again, but shouted every day to negotiate.
In fact, no matter who becomes Russia in 2024, ending the Russian-Ukrainian war as soon as possible is the top priority. Even if Putin is re-elected, he must end the Russian-Ukrainian war as soon as possible to ensure that he can be more down-to-earth for at least another 6 years. Because they know very well that if the Russian-Ukrainian war does not end one day, they will not be able to get the understanding and acceptance of the United States and the West, and they can only live alone in this world.
Moreover, the Russians know very well that their future destination is still the West, and joining forces with the East is only a stopgap measure, but just to have more bargaining chips with the West, because they have too few chips in their hands.
Of course, after 2024, Russia should not count on any presence in the world.
Third, Ukraine, Israel, and Argentina will begin to rise
In fact, Ukraine and Israel have risen. Needless to say, Israel's defeat of Hamas will further consolidate its position in the Middle East and further expand its influence in the world. Even Ukraine has shown its strength, dignity and momentum in its own Great Patriotic War, its firm belief in pursuing independence, freedom and democracy, and Ukraine's future status as a great power in the world. It is foreseeable that after the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ukraine, with the full support of the world's democratic camp, will not only make extraordinary achievements economically, but also have a decisive voice in international affairs, and will become a political and economic power that cannot be ignored.
As for Argentina, many people will definitely scoff: how can a "madman" rise when he is **?Not really. Argentina will certainly have a difficult time in the early part of 2024, but from the second half of the year it should start to stabilize and recover, and from then on to success. Because, all the governing programs advocated by Milley are quite in line with the general trend of the development of our human society, especially his governing concept of "minimality + liberalization + privatization", which will surely make Argentina return to the glory of a hundred years ago. Argentina went from being rich to beggars only because they fell into the trap of "political and economic nationalization", from which they will surely be able to "be great again", as Millet said, and may gradually become the next beacon of our human society.
Don't underestimate these three countries, their impact on the world after 2024 will be unimaginable.
Fourth, China will encounter unprecedented challenges in all directions
Although China is making every effort to ease relations with the United States and the West and adjust its national economic policies, great challenges will still come as promised.
First, international standing will be further isolated. Because its values, social system, and economic system are vastly different from those of the United States and the West, China will never be sincerely recognized and reassured to cooperate with the United States and the West, and will remain in a state of being guarded against and constrained by the United States and the West for a long time. In addition, some countries that have been wavering will eventually turn to the United States and the West, whether in terms of international discourse, international discourse or economy, China is in a very disadvantageous position, and the challenge is unprecedented.
Second, the constraints of the domestic economy will greatly restrict the exertion of international influence. The economic problems that have accumulated over the years may erupt more intensively in 2024, and China will be more flawless in its handling of international affairs, making it possible for China to be more on the defensive in handling international affairs.
However, it is okay to develop yourself well.
Therefore, in order to do a good job in domestic economic construction and cope with the extremely unfavorable international environment and the general trend of world development, China may make major strategic adjustments in many aspects in 2024.
Fifth, the process of global political and economic integration is accelerating
Authoritarian politics, the nationalized economic system, and the planned economic system have been completely defeated after more than 80 years of practice in the world since World War II, and the vast majority of countries in the world have fully realized that only a democratic political system and a liberalized market economic system can be the correct way for a country to become prosperous and strong. Therefore, in 2024, more countries will further implement reforms in political democratization and economic liberalization to enhance national strength and improve people's livelihood and well-being, thereby further accelerating the process of world political and economic integration.
No matter how many countries are striking, our world will eventually move towards great harmony. The so-called world harmony means that all countries are under the dominance of democratic politics and market economy, and then form a world ruled by law in which all countries strictly abide by common laws and rules.
Whether it is a democratic politics or a free market economy, they all have one fundamental thing in common, that is, they are all strictly constrained by law. That is to say, democracy is essentially a politics of the rule of law, and a market economy is essentially an economy of the rule of law, both of which inherently exclude all privileges that are above the law. Of course, in a society governed by the rule of law in a democratic politics and a market economy, it is even more impossible to produce any leaders and hegemons. It can be said that the hegemons and hegemons are the natural enemies of a society governed by the rule of law in democratic politics and a market economy. Therefore, all the struggles of human society, in the final analysis, are the struggles for the gradual elimination of the leaders and the hegemons.
Therefore, 2024 is definitely not a friendly year for all ** and hegemons. Because, all the leaders and hegemons are the biggest stumbling blocks to the world's political and economic integration. In 2024, there will definitely be more ** and hegemons invited out of the stage of history.
In addition, the United Nations is likely to carry out major reforms and introduce some more rigid world laws to more effectively restrain some ** and even terrorist state regimes or organizations, so as to prevent them from wantonly waging wars, undermining the international order, and violating human rights like Russia and Hamas.
In short, 2024 will be a year of great breakthroughs, the year of laying the foundation for the world pattern for a long period of time in the future, and a crucial year for world political and economic integration. The European Union, in particular, has set an example for the political and economic integration of the world, and is attracting more countries to join urgently. It is believed that Europe, the birthplace of modern civilization, will continue to lead the new voyage of world political and economic integration together with other influential powers.