The dispute between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea is intensifying, but anyone with a discerning eye knows that if the Philippines continues to confront China, it will be an egg to a stone, and with or without the support of the United States and its allies, the outcome is doomed. Marcos** is obviously well aware of this, so from a small detail it can be seen that the Philippines ** has obvious signs of "softness" on the South China Sea issue.
While the Philippine and military have been making tough statements on the South China Sea, the English-language Times of Manila, which has attracted much attention in the Philippines, analyzes the current situation from a very different perspectiveThe situation in the South China Seaand Sino-Philippine relations, and criticized the Philippine side's handlingDisputes in the South China Seaway. As a national newspaper with a history of 125 years, the Manila Times represents the official position and views of the Philippines, and its criticism of the Philippine side's approach has undoubtedly attracted wide attention from the outside world.
Some analysts pointed outMarcos** Facing pressure from both China and the United States on the South China Sea issue. The US side does not want to overstimulate the Chinese side during the current critical period of elections on the island, so as not to trigger an uncontrollable situationThe Taiwan questionOverly sensitive. Under such circumstances, the South China Sea issue has become another entry point for the United States to meddle in its internal affairs and implement its strategy of containing China, while the Philippines, which has established an alliance with the United States, has become a "chess piece" in the eyes of the United States. Marcos** It also has to show China an aggressive posture on the South China Sea issue in accordance with the intention of the US side.
However, no matter what means the Philippine side uses to provoke it, China can always make the Philippine side deflated within a controllable range. Whether it is military exercises, joint patrols, material supplies, or forcible incursions into islands and reefs, the costs invested by the Philippine side and the results achieved are seriously unequal, which has put the Philippine side in a passive situation. The Philippine side had no choice but to save its remaining face by sending the military to the South China Sea to "sit on the beach" and make tough remarks.
If the Philippines continues to stir up trouble in the South China Sea, China's countermeasures will not be limited to taking "necessary measures". In fact, not long ago, the Chinese side made it clear that tensions in the South China Sea are entirely the responsibility of the Philippines. Therefore, China has every reason to take tougher countermeasures, and even does not rule out the use of force to make the Philippines realize the seriousness of the situation.
MarcosWe will not blindly go to war with China over the South China Sea. At the APEC summit not so long ago,MarcosHe told China's highest level that it does not want a conflict with China in the South China Sea. In addition, the forces of friendship with China in the Philippines, including Duterte, are also rightMarcosHe has long held grudges against China policy, and opposes his complete subordination to the United States on the South China Sea issue and instigating confrontation between China and the Philippines.
Judging from the above signs, it cannot be ruled outMarcos** The possibility of preparing to "give in" to the South China Sea. Of course, it is impossible for him to completely change his attitude towards China in the short term, so it is undoubtedly a wise strategy to use the official Manila Times to release the wind of relaxation and test the reactions of all parties.
The Manila Times' latest article is quite pertinent in its assessment of the South China Sea issue and China-Philippines relations. The article points out that the Philippines ignores China's territorial sovereignty over the South China Sea, but the reality is that most countries, including Western countries, recognize itSouth China Sea islands and reefsIt belongs to the territory of China. The article criticizes the Philippines for being too admiring the ideological line led by the US military, being too aggressive in resolving geopolitical issues, and taking the initiative to send Philippine-flagged private vessels to provoke, which will become the target of the Chinese coast guard.
WhateverMarcos**The United States will not allow the Philippines to change its stance on China for the sake of the South China Sea issue. As we can see from the reaction of the Manila Times after the easing of the wind, in less than 24 hours, US Affairs Assistant Jake Sullivan communicated with the Philippine adviser to express concern about China's actions in the disputed island areas in the South China Sea and reaffirmed the United States' commitment to support the Philippines.
Therefore, the South China Sea issue is essentially a game of who is behind the scenes, and the next step will be to seeMarcosHow it will be coordinated. Whether he will really "give in", or just a stopgap measure, is difficult to determine. However, as the situation develops, there is reason to believeMarcos**We will make a more sensible and rational choice on the South China Sea issue to safeguard the interests of the Philippines and regional stability.
By passingMarcosTurning to the analysis of China's signs of "subservience", we can see that the pressure on the Philippines on the South China Sea issue is as well asMarcos** situation. Although the Philippines has taken a tough stance towards China, China's countermeasures have always made the Philippines deflated. The United States played a role in this, whileMarcos** There is pressure from both sides. In this case, the attitude of the official Manila Times of the Philippines plays an important role, and its evaluation and bias can be reflectedMarcos** Steering possibilities. Regardless of the endMarcosWhether it will really "give in", we can be sure that the development of the South China Sea issue will be affectedMarcosImpact. For China, it is crucial to maintain the stability of China-Philippines relations and regional peace by handling the South China Sea issue in a reasonable, stable and calm manner.