The semiconductor industry is nothing more than two types of "normality": one is that chips are in short supply, and the other is chip overcapacity, which corresponds to a downturn or slowdown in the market. In the past two years, we have just superimposed multiple debuffs such as the impact of the epidemic, the tension of the first chain, and the strategic game between China and the United States, the semiconductor market has been weak, and the chip market around the world has shown a relative recession. Until the end of the year, I was impressed by the pessimism** of various well-known analytical agencies at the beginning of 2023.
In fact, last year, the revenue of his friend's related company declined, and he was deeply anxious when chatting, for fear that he would also be suddenly laid off. At the beginning of 2023, the investment shrinkage of many semiconductor companies is also visible to the naked eye. Fortunately, the ice and rain are getting warmer, and the memory chips performed well in the first half of the year (manifested in the fact that the solid-state disk memory module of the Yangtze River Storage's domestic core continued to break the monopoly of the three giants), and the "AI computing power" turned the tide (ChatGPT was a blockbuster, and the ban on the sale of high-computing power cards, etc.), in the middle of the year, there were frequent explosions in the field of smartphone chips, and Huazi and Guozi contributed (Huawei's Kirin 9000s 4 with 5nm process.)9999...G chips are especially worth mentioning), the domestic "chip self-research boom" continues, as well as the strong rise of domestic new energy vehicles, the total output value of the semiconductor chip industry will begin to rebound in the second half of 2023, and people will rekindle hope.
According to the September report of the well-known research institute OMDIA, the total output value of the semiconductor industry in 2023Q2 reached 124.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 38%；The November report announced that the total output value in 2023Q3 was 139 billion US dollars, an increase of 8 from Q24%。The continuous growth for 2 consecutive quarters means that the whole industry has successfully reversed the decline after 5 consecutive quarters of revenue decline, and most of the worries about the industry's prospects have disappeared.
The sustained recovery in these two quarters is due to the following:
First of all, the background of global economic recovery has brought new development opportunities to the semiconductor chip industry, and the steady recovery of economic activities in various countries and regions has also promoted the steady growth of semiconductor market demandIn addition, the problem of the previous ** chain has been basically solved, and the increase in production capacity has accelerated the recovery of the industry.
Other opportunities come from the application and development of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and cloud computing. Among them, artificial intelligence, which is widely used in smart cars (assisted driving), whole-house intelligence, and medical fields, is very powerful, and the large model training behind AIGC applications has brought about an increase in the demand for computing chips, and the expansion rate of memory chips is also obvious, and the upper limit of future chip development is relatively objective, thus injecting more confidence into the future development of the whole industry.
However, the entire semiconductor industry is still in a state of cycle bottoming, and the competition intensity of various companies is also at a high level, and more challenges will be metOverall, enterprises with strong technological innovation strength and can continue to produce high-performance and high-quality products are more likely to gain a firm foothold.