"If you don't see the coffin, you won't shed tears", after Armenia was pitted by the United States, it turned back to Putin
Recently, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan traveled to Russia for a two-day visit and shook hands with Azerbaijan Aliyev in front of Putin at an informal CIS summit in St. Petersburg.
It is no secret that Armenia has long maintained close ties with Russia. However, since Pashnyan came to power in 2018, Armenia has embarked on a policy of so-called "balanced diplomacy", trying to frequently make overtures to the United States and the West while alienating Russia.
In the face of Armenia's "defection" at its doorstep, Russia initially chose to wait and see rather than actively woo it. When the Nagorno-Karabakh issue sparked renewed military conflict in 2020, Russian peacekeepers quickly stepped in to force the two sides to negotiate a ceasefire. It is noteworthy that, despite the ostensible neutrality of Russia at that time, in fact Armenia became the victim of the war. Russia's involvement is in fact an indirect support for Armenia.
However, Pashnyan did not express gratitude for Russia's kindness. With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's failure to achieve a quick victory in the war, coupled with the defeat of Russian troops in Kiev, has weakened Moscow's prestige in the former Soviet Union member countries. After that, Armenia gradually distanced itself from the path of alienating Russia.
Not so long ago, Pashnyan declared in an interview that over-reliance on Russia's security was a "strategic mistake." To some extent, such rhetoric can be seen as a clear signal of Armenia's move towards the West.
Ironically, however, in September of this year, when Armenia conducted joint exercises with the U.S. military, Azerbaijan launched another offensive against the Nagorno-Karabakh region, quickly destroying dozens of Armenian strongholds in the region. And the United States, which Armenia expected support at the time, did not take substantive action, and the only response was Blinken's blitly "call for dialogue between all parties."
Of course, this American response was not unexpected. The United States has long preferred to provide verbal support to its allies, but has not delivered on its substantive commitments. Moreover, if Biden is still interested in discussing a deal with Erdogan regarding Sweden's accession, then meddling in the situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region would obviously embarrass Turkey and Azerbaijan. Pashnyan's rhetoric and Armenia's diplomatic expectations have been met with enormous challenges in the face of reality.
Therefore, Armenia behaved hesitantly in the face of the blow, and Pashnian, out of concern about the situation, even openly stated that Armenia was ready to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan if Azerbaijan could ensure the security of the Armenians. Why did Pashnyan change his degree so unusually?
In addition to recognizing the true face of the United States and the West, a large part of the reason is that the development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has taken a new turn, and this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has regained the attention of the international community.
For Moscow, this is undoubtedly very advantageous. On the one hand, the Russian army can accelerate its offensive while the West is mired in internal problems;On the other hand, Russia can finally have the opportunity to intervene in the situation in Central Asia, the Middle East and the Caucasus. Coupled with Putin's recent visit to the Middle East and his meeting with Iranian Raisi in Moscow, this in itself shows that Russia's diplomatic environment has fundamentally changed, despite the constant pressure from the United States and the West.
The relationship between countries is essentially based on interests. Previously, Pashnyan had pinned his hopes on US assistance, but Armenia's vacillation among the great powers would only bring disaster of its own, as evidenced by the loss of the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Earlier, Pashnyan refused to attend the CSTO summit, but now he not only personally visits Russia, but even shakes hands with Aliyev in front of Putin. This is enough to show that Armenia's position may have changed, but it remains to be seen whether Armenia and Azerbaijan will sign a peace treaty as the Kremlin said.
Transformations in international relations often depend on the real interests of the country, and Armenia's policy adjustments may be based on a rational understanding of the current situation. However, it remains to be seen whether Armenia and Azerbaijan will be able to reach a peace agreement in the future.