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From 2021 to 2022, there will be a shortage of global chip production capacity, and there will be a chip shortage in all walks of life. Chip manufacturers have an endless stream of orders, and chips continue to skyrocket, and many dealers take this opportunity to hoard and make a lot of money.
By 2023, the chip shortage will be alleviated, and no one seems to want 7nm high-end chips that were originally in short supply, and the proportion of TSMC's revenue will continue to decline, compared to the spring of mature chips. Foreign media: The chip situation has begun to reverse
High-end chips have a wide range of strong demand, in the field of artificial intelligence, requires powerful computing power and efficient data processing capabilities, high-end chips can provide higher performance and energy efficiency to meet these complex computing needs.
In addition, the rapid development of cloud computing and data centers requires higher computing and storage capabilities to meet users' needs for large-scale data storage, processing, and analysis.
High-end chips can provide higher performance and efficiency, so that the computing power demand can be guaranteed. Not to mention smart consumer electronic devices, which have supported the market size of tens of billions and hundreds of billions of dollars.
During the global chip shortage, TSMC and Samsung undertook a large number of 7nm chip foundry orders, and this kind of process became the most important revenue for the two**. In particular, TSMC, at its peak, 7nm contributed more than 30% of sales.
However, the demand for chip manufacturing has changed, and in the third quarter of this year, 7nm accounted for only 17% of TSMC's revenue, and customers continued to cancel 7nn orders, resulting in a decline in capacity utilization to about 50%. Demand determines the market, and when the demand is no longer strong, even if TSMC's 7nm process is mature, no matter how much production capacity there is, it will not help.
Why doesn't anyone want 7nm?In fact, the demand for high-end chips is limited, not all industries need high-end chips, and not the more high-end chips the better. Refrigerators, air conditioners, cars and other common living equipment do not need high-end chips, if high-end chips are used, it will not only cause excess performance, but also not cheap.
On the contrary, mature chips with wider applicability are favored by consumers.
Chinese mainland is the world's largest chip consumer market, and China's chip demand determines whether many semiconductor companies can make a lot of money. TSMC, Qualcomm, ASML and other chip manufacturers, leading companies and lithography machine manufacturers are inseparable from the Chinese market. Foreign media bluntly said: The chip situation has reversed, and mature chips are becoming more and more important in China.
This can also be seen in ASML's performance. ASML's third-quarter results show that relying on a large number of mature process DUV lithography machines, China's revenue accounts for as much as 46%.
Could it be that the spring of mature chips is coming?Emerging technologies such as the Internet of Things and 5G continue to develop, and the demand for chips is also increasing. These emerging technologies require more chips to support connectivity and data processing, so the demand for mature chips is increasing.
Although the shift in market demand may lead to a decrease in the demand for high-end processes, overall, the chip industry is still in a stage of rapid development, and mature chips still have huge market potential.
TSMC, Samsung has attached importance to the competition of mature chips, and wants to use the ** battle strategy to win more mature chip orders, but Chinese mainland has SMIC, Huahong Group and other manufacturers, and will definitely be able to stand out in their own home field.
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