ChinaEconomyWe are now faced with a major choice, which is to choose to returnPlanned economyOr continue to deepen reforms and abolish non-market-oriented privileges?The reality is that there will be no regressionPlanned economysituation, the key now is to deal with itThe economy is in a downturntrends. However, the data for October turned out to be a surpriseEconomyThe problem is that four months of weak recovery have been interrupted. Despite a series of stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, the market response has been unusually lukewarm, suggesting that the root of the problem may be systemic. The problem lies with ChinaEconomyThere is a dualistic structure that leads to a misallocation of resources, causing resources to flow to inefficient state-owned enterprises and efficient private enterprises to be neglected, which is contradictory to reality, but it is difficult to change. If this problem is not addressed, many beautiful ideals will only become a pipe dream. It can be seen from this that ChinaEconomyIt has stood at the crossroads of history.
CurrentDebtThe issue has attracted the attention of all parties. The fact that various localities have begun to issue special treasury bonds to fill their fiscal deficits is not a positive performance, but an inevitable result of local fiscal revenues exceeding their expenditures. Nowadays, the debt has affected the normal operation of the local **, and then compare different countriesDebtProportions are meaningless. In addition, there are many hidden properties that cannot be quantifiedDebt, theseDebtwill continue to stack up so thatDebtThe problem has become even more serious. WhileEconomydoes not show signs of high growth, which makes it massiveEconomyThe stimulus plan has become a high probability event.
MassivelyEconomyThe stimulus package is not intended to be pursuedEconomybut to hedge against the housing bubble through a monetary bubble, so as to achieve the sharing of the sunk capital of the richDebtof the mitigation. One of the main objectives of the plan is to lift the cap on land auctions**, so that:Commercial housingand affordable housing have returned to the attributes of commodities and security respectively, further strengthening the regulation and control of the real estate market. Against this backdrop, the investment choices of the wealthy will face more tests, as they need to weigh the risks and rewards of investing and buying heavy assets in the first-tier property market, or wait for the inevitable arrival of depreciation. This is high for the containment of capital loss as wellNet worthRational investment choices for families are of great significance.
At present, the Fed's interest rate hike is nearing its end, and high-level contacts between China and the United States are also frequent, which lays the foundation for a good situation in 2024. However, for ChinaEconomyThere is still some uncertainty about whether it will be able to enter the track of high growth. Among them,Private economyThe state of development has become an important indicator of judging. Currently,Private economyIt is generally faced with the dilemma of overcapacity, which is not conducive toEconomyThe development and growth will only promote the reshuffle of the survival of the fittest. Based on this situation, large-scale is introducedEconomyThe stimulus package will become a high-probability event.
By ChinaEconomyof observation and analysis, we can see that ChinaEconomyWe are facing a series of challenges and choices. In the current situation, on a large scaleEconomyThe introduction of a stimulus package was an inevitable choice. However, this does not meanEconomyThere will be high growth, but I hope that it will be solved by such a stimulusReal estate bubbleswithDebtProblem, pushEconomySustained and stable development. On the road ahead, we need to find the right way to balance the various interests and challenges in order to achieve thisEconomysustainable development.