In 2023, China's real estate market has undergone a series of adjustments and changes. From policy regulation to changes in market demand, various factors jointly affect the development of the real estate industry.
no.1丨One
Real estate market analysis
In 2023, the best policy in China's real estate market has undergone changes after stabilization. With the Politburo meeting in July as a watershed, the tone was set as "a major change in the relationship between supply and demand in the industry", and the policy intensity gradually shifted to "lifting and using". On the demand side, measures such as reducing down payments, interest rates, and recognising houses without recognising loans have been introduced to support residents to buy houses with mortgages. On the supply side, the "three not less than" and the same measures to support financing and equal protection have been implemented to alleviate the financial pressure of real estate enterprises.
At the same time, the local government has also actively adjusted its real estate policies, and the relaxation of local policies has increased. According to statistics, as of December 18, 751 local relaxation policies have been issued this year, an increase of more than 140 times over last year, covering more than 330 cities. Among them, the number of promulgations in September reached the highest since last year, and more than 140 were issued in a single month, and the policy environment is close to the most relaxed stage in 2014, and almost all restrictive administrative measures have been withdrawn.
Although the policy environment continues to be loose, the real estate market is not repairing as expected, and the overall situation is still in the process of adjustment. After experiencing a low rise in the first quarter, the lack of momentum began to fall in the second quarter, and it has been hovering at a low level in the second half of the year, and the cumulative performance of real estate companies continued to show negative growth. Due to factors such as weak residents' income expectations and housing price expectations, which still restrict the pace of market repair, the real estate market differentiation has intensified.
In terms of land, against the backdrop of a cold market environment, the national land market will still operate at a low level in 2023. Although the cancellation of the "price limit" has left enough profits for developers to mobilize their enthusiasm for land acquisition, and the land auction market has transitioned to marketization, considering the different location conditions and land values of different plots, even if the profit expectation is better, it is still more important for enterprises to make decisions at a time when real estate companies are under pressure on funds. The overall investment strategy of real estate companies is to stay cautious and focused, abandoning most third- and fourth-tier cities, while increasing the number of high-quality land plots in first- and second-tier cities. Under such circumstances, the total scale of land transactions in the country this year has refreshed a new low in the past decade.
Specific to the Anhui market, the province's property market regulation continues to be relaxed, with the demand side supporting rigid and improved housing purchase policies, the overall effect is not obvious, and the province's commercial housing transactions continue to be sluggish. The supply and demand of land in various cities generally declined year-on-year, the transaction volume shrank, the transaction volume in some cities was cut in half, and the foreign real estate enterprises paid low attention to the local market, mainly local real estate enterprises took land, especially the local state-owned enterprises to acquire land is still the main force.
no.2丨II
The annual list will be released soon
The list mainly includes the 2023 Hefei regional commercial housing sales amount list, Hefei real estate enterprise sales amount list, Hefei residential project sales amount list, and 2023 Anhui 16 city land transfer area list, Anhui county land transaction list, real estate enterprise land acquisition list, etc., using data to talk about the real estate situation in Anhui.
According to the statistics of the Spreading Cloud AI property market index system, the sales amount of Baohe District from January to November this year is far ahead, and it is basically the top position this year.
In the list of sales amount of real estate enterprises, the sales amount of Poly, China Merchants and China Resources is more than 10 billion, and it is worth looking forward to who can finally top the list. In addition, in the project sales list, this year's best-selling projects such as Jingyuan, Vanke Langshi, Landmark Center, Poly and Guangxiyue, High-speed Xinda Times Galaxy, and High-speed Shangqi Yuan have all been shortlisted in the TOP20 list.
In the land list, the provincial capital Hefei sits on the top of the list, and at the end of December, Hefei will usher in the last land auction of this year, with 4 cases of about 19247 acres of land, especially the provincial government plot, has a high degree of attention. The sales of Chuzhou and Fuyang are quite strong, and the main transactions in the two cities are concentrated in the county market, and most of them are mainly land acquisition by platform companies.
With real estate companies focusing on the first- and second-tier core cities, the county land market can be described as bleak, especially in the marginal counties. This year, Tianchang City has performed outstandingly, and it is basically the top of the list, and the land auction in Feixi this year is significantly higher than the year-on-year **, but it is relatively good compared to the land auction in Hefei City.
For real estate enterprises, land reserve is a sharp weapon in market competition, and even a hard currency with rapid value-added. However, in the current real estate environment, real estate companies are under greater financial pressure and are more cautious in acquiring land, which is indeed a way to show the strength of real estate companies.
no.3丨Three
Conclusion
In 2023, both real estate companies and ** are doing the final sprint, the data speaks, the list leads, how is the real estate market in Anhui Province in 2023, the First Housing Research Institute will soon release the 2023 annual real estate list for you.