In the era of globalization, the world economic pattern is an important factor affecting the development and cooperation of all countries. In recent years, with the United States' attempt to decouple from China and the impact of the new crown epidemic, the world economic pattern has undergone some changes, which has aroused attention and discussion from all parties. Professor Yao Yang believes that China's connection with the world has not been broken, and even if the United States tries to decouple from China, it will have many disadvantages for the United States itself.
He believes that China's economy has huge growth potential, industrial transfer is not necessarily a bad thing for China, China's comprehensive cost advantage and the integrity of the first chain make it favored by the world, although foreign investment has decreased, but does not mean to leave China, but foreign investment in the country declined. What are the bases and arguments for Professor Yao Yang's views?How does he see China's future economic development and international cooperation?
China and the rest of the world have not decoupled, but have become closer
Professor Yao Yang pointed out that since the beginning of the epidemic, the so-called decoupling theory has been rampant, and many people say that the world should decouple from China and break the chain. But this does not correspond to the laws of economics. It is precisely during the epidemic that the growth rate of China's foreign trade has increased, and the export growth rate is higher than the world average, so the proportion of our exports in the world has not only not declined, but is rising.
Before the epidemic, we accounted for only 14% of the world's share, and now it has reached 14%, in other words, the world's dependence on China has increased in the past three years, not decreased, so the so-called "the whole world has left China" and other statements are wrong.
Why has China not only maintained its position in foreign trade, but also strengthened it?Because China's manufacturing strength is very strong, not only has a certain technical advantage, but also a comprehensive cost advantage, this cost advantage makes it more difficult for other countries to catch up, first of all, it is impossible for developed countries, they have passed this stage, although many developing countries have labor advantages, but in other aspects can not catch up with China. Talking about a simple logistics cost, about seven or eight years ago, we were still talking about logistics costs are too high, accounting for 30% of the entire sales cost, who still talks about logistics costs today?
Buying things and sending logistics, unconsciously our logistics has become the world's first, we live in China, many times we don't notice this, and we can be aware of it when we go abroad. In terms of export value, China's exports of goods in the first three quarters of this year fell slightly year-on-year, but the total global exports are declining this year. China's current advantage lies in the fact that its surplus is still quite impressive, and its share of exports to Asian, African and Latin American countries is gradually rising.
Despite some fears of losing dependence on the markets of developed countries, the reality is that developed countries have a relatively small share of the population, while countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America constitute the world's major economies and are full of development potential. Over this time, our exports to these regions have continued to grow, and the countries involved in the Commerce and Trade Initiative have accounted for 46 percent of China's total exports5 per cent, and this proportion will increase further.
In addition, China's exports of three emerging industries – electric vehicles, solar panels and lithium batteries – are increasing rapidly, and this growth covers not only the global market but also exports to developed countries. In the global market, the light of the East is becoming more and more brilliant.
Professor Yao Yang believes that industrial transfer is a natural economic phenomenon, not a negative impact, but a positive driving force. He said that industrial transfer does not mean that China's industry is gone, but that China's industrial structure is changing, and some low-end, low-value-added, and high-pollution industries have been transferred to other countries, while China is focusing on the development of high-end, high-value-added, and low-carbon industries, which is a process of industrial upgrading and innovation, which is in line with the direction of China's economic transformation.
Professor Yao Yang said, for example, China's garment industry is a typical example of industrial transfer, China used to be the world's largest garment exporter, but in recent years, China's garment exports have gradually declined, while Vietnam, Bangladesh and other countries have risen rapidly, this is because the garment industry is a labor-intensive industry, with the disappearance of China's demographic dividend, China's labor costs have risen, China's garment industry has lost its competitiveness, and transferred to other countries.
Professor Yao Yang also said that industrial transfer is not only beneficial to China, but also to the world, because industrial transfer can promote global resource allocation and efficiency improvement, can help other countries achieve industrialization and development, can increase global supply and demand, can promote global cooperation and cooperation, can alleviate the global gap between the rich and the poor and contradictions, can improve global welfare and happiness.
Professor Yao Yang used his professional knowledge and insights to interpret the connection and influence between China and the world, show us China's economic strength and potential, and point out China's economic direction and goals. His views have both theoretical basis and practical evidence, both historical perspective and future prospect, both international perspective and domestic perspective, macro analysis and micro cases, both objective evaluation and subjective suggestions, both serious discussion and humor, which is a very wonderful commentary. Pay special attention to him, what Yao Yang said is very reasonable