The most crazy economists need to push inflation to 6 as soon as possible

In the past two days, the domestic macroeconomics circles have been relatively lively.

The reason is that the well-known economist *** published an article, and the suggestions in the article caused a lot of controversy.

The academic status of the company will not be elaborated too much, and you can search for it yourself if you are interested. He is one of the founders of modern new institutional economics and modern property economics, and he has always been arrogant and uninhibited, and he is overjoyed, just by looking at his hairstyle.

In this article, his core point is:

Keynes believed that the consumption of nationals was based on their income, while Friedman believed that the consumption of nationals was based on their wealth. But from the point of view of consumption, all the evidence says that Friedman was right. One of the difficulties of China's economy today is that for a number of reasons, property prices have fallen, which is the w decline of the above equation. This decline in wealth is devastating to the economy because it is not like income. Income is transitory, but wealth is not. The decline in wealth means that the public's expectations of future income have fallen forever.

In addition to not restricting property prices, China's central bank should push the annual inflation rate to about 6% as soon as possible, and then adjust it to 4%, and then let the 4% inflation rate continue until the overall economy has a comprehensive and considerable development.

has also sparked a series of discussions.

For example, the former chief of the Bank of Communications, Hong Hao's view:

For example, Wu Ge, the chief of the Yangtze River, actually mentioned a similar point of view in the research report 1 day before the publication of the article:

From an international point of view, only a more resolute counter-cyclical policy rather than a market clearing can stop the downturn.

At least ***'s view, judging from the real situation overseas, is supported.

For example, Japan's inflation has been very strong recently, and the GDP in the third quarter was directly -25%, but the Bank of Japan still did not dare to raise interest rates, because in August 2000, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates after only half a year of interest rate cuts, which stifled Japan's recovery.

Lao Nan also talked about his own views.

When discussing issues, a lot of controversy is that the definition is not clear, which leads to chickens and ducks talking. For example, the short- and medium-term difficulties and the long-term direction are not absolutely contradictory. For example, the de-bubble of housing prices and the stabilization of employment and income are not absolutely contradictory. It's just a matter of policy and proportion.

For example, Lao Nan mentioned in "The Transformation of the Wind Outlet and You Should Stand on the **" that "the essence of the series of difficulties we have encountered in recent years is that China's economy has shifted from "debt-driven" to "productivity-driven", which has led to a series of drastic changes in the traditional model risk release, asset pricing framework, career development, etc. ”

This path is certainly right, but the process is long, and starting towards this goal does not mean that we should ignore the current stable employment and income.

If there are often fan messages, why do you write about financial management, but often write about real estate?That's because real estate, which accounts for up to 60% of residents' assets in China.

The same 20% decline, for the middle class, the pain and impact of the monthly income from 10,000 to 8,000 is much smaller than their own real estate, from 4 million to 3.2 million.

Therefore, moderate intervention is necessary before domestic housing prices are cleared to a certain stage, and consumption has been significantly suppressed, which may trigger Fisher's "debt-deflationary theory".

In particular, last month's CPI was -05%, it is even more necessary to shoot.

This year, there are many macro analyses in China, and by the end of the year, there have been a series of misjudgments, which can be expressed in a practical picture:

Source: Wind, Haitong Research Institute

The expected fiscal support has been significantly lower than expected this year. Of course, there are objective constraints in this, such as the Federal Reserve's crazy interest rate hikes, the RMB is facing greater depreciation pressure, and there are constraints on monetary and fiscal policies. For example, the process of demobilizing local debts will constrain fiscal expenditures.

But at this point in time, the Fed's interest rate hike has basically come to an end, and although it will not cut interest rates quickly, the pressure on the RMB to depreciate is much less. For example, domestic deleveraging has been released a lot after the liquidation in the past few years.

At this time, in fact, it is also the time when it is suitable for policy action.

So I don't know if you have paid attention to the just-concluded ** economic work conference, CCTV highlighted 12 words in the report - seeking progress in stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking.

The original words in the news are:

At this meeting, after "seeking progress while maintaining stability," the words "promoting stability through progress, first establishing and then breaking" were added. This is to pay more attention to the role of "progress", climb the slope to pass the hurdles, break through the barriers, and it is difficult to "stabilize" without "progress".

In fact, during the epidemic, the United States issued money to the whole people, which also belonged to optimizing the balance sheets of enterprises and families through fiscal spending.

However, the difference is that in the past, many times in China was spent through infrastructure investment, while the United States is more inclined to spend money on consumption.

This time, it is actually worth seeing what kind of approach will be adopted in China, and it is possible that it will be both.

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