At its last meeting in 2023, the Fed sent a clear signal to the world that the world will face the challenge of a recession in 2024. Previously, globalEconomyIt is in a special phase triggered by the pandemic, and 2024 will be this newEconomyA turning point in the cycle. Among the performance of the stagflation period, the United States and the European Union are particularly prominent. The United States passedQuantitative easingPolicy stimulusEconomy, which resulted in a serious inflation problem. The EU does not only existQuantitative easingphenomenon, which has also exacerbated the inflation problem due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In order to fight inflation, Europe and the United States, etcEconomyThe body has already taken measures such as raising interest rates. However, by 2024, while inflation is likely to be under control, globallyEconomyBut it is possible to enter a recession cycle.
However, a recession during the stagflation period is not just a digital shift, there are complex problems behind it. In this new oneEconomycycle, majorEconomyThe body will try to get out of the stagflation period, but it will also fall into the recession phase. Especially the United States and the European Union, among othersDeveloped countries, they may be affected by a global recession. Although these countries have taken a series of measures to deal with it, they still cannot completely avoid a recession. Therefore, the transition from a global stagflation period to a stagflation recession period will have a global impactEconomyMake a far-reaching impact.
In the face of an impending recession, central banks are likely to take aggressive measures to stimulateEconomyIncrease. As the United States, which has the hegemony of the dollar, it is possible to implement easing policy again. However, this has also sparked concern for the followingU.S. TreasuriesExpansion of the size of the issuance andU.S. TreasuriesConcerns about the possibility of default. At the same time, the eurozone is also at risk of a recession, which is expected to accelerate further next year. Market** The EU is likely to cut interest rates in June 2024, while some countries such as Peru and Brazil have already started cutting rates. These measures have mitigated the impact of the recession to some extentEconomypressure, but also exacerbated globallyEconomyof worries.
However, despite the globalEconomyAt risk of recession, Asian countries are showing some growth potential. India and Vietnam, among other countriesEconomyGrowth has exceeded market expectations, and Japan is on track to emerge from decades-long deflation. In particular, it is worth looking forward to China, as the second largest in the worldEconomyChina's growth is gradually recovering. At present, China's GDP growth rate has exceeded 5%, and it is expected to increase further in 2024. ChinaEconomyThe recovery for the worldEconomyplayed an important role in the stabilization.
Faced with the possibility of a global recession, China has expressed its opposition. China has always been committed to maintaining global stability and sustainable development, and does not want to see the world fall into deeper predicament. China has shown to be strongEconomyThe momentum of recovery has demonstrated its global support with concrete actionsEconomydevelopment. China's GDP growth rate is more than 5%, which proves that China is driving the worldEconomyIt plays an important role in growth.
Although globallyEconomyThere are many challenges and uncertainties, but we cannot give up on the futureEconomyBe alert and well prepared. The recurrence of black swan events could make the worldEconomyIt is also possible to fall into deeper troubles, and the continuation of stagflation and recession is also possible. Therefore, we need to keep a close eye on the worldEconomyand be prepared for all eventualities. Only in this way can we be globalEconomyMaintain stable and healthy development in the midst of changes.
The global recession in 2024 is a wake-up call. The current stagflation period is transitioning to a stagflation recession period, which will have a global impactEconomyMake a far-reaching impact. Faced with the challenge of a recession, central banks are likely to take a series of aggressive measures to stimulateEconomygrowth, but it has also raised concerns about financial risks. In this process, China is the second largest in the worldEconomyto oppose the recession and support the world through practical actionsEconomydevelopment. However, we still need to remain vigilant and keep a close eye on the worldEconomyand be prepared to deal with the crises and challenges that may arise. Only in this way can we be globalEconomyMaintain stable and healthy development in the wind and waves.