Last night, with Powell's dove support, the market priced in a 150bp interest rate cut next year, which was more relaxed than the original market expectation of a 125bp rate cut, which made U.S. stocks enter the Christmas carnival ahead of schedule**, the Dow Jones index hit a record high, and also drove Europe ** to a new high, and the resilience of U.S. stocks is really convincing.
U.S. stocks hit new highs, and A H shares are still grinding the bottom, and extreme games often cause other butterfly effects, if from the perspective of financial products, A shares are not the most stressful end, the most pressure is the REITs real estate investment trusts listed in the first two years**, the situation is somewhat similar to the three-year closed-end ** we mentioned last week.
Since the beginning of this year, the CSI REITs index has fallen by 30%, which is the worst year since its listing in September 2021.
In terms of breakdown, all the 28 constituent targets of CSI REITs have lost money this year, and the largest losses are CCB Zhongguancun and Zhongjin Prologis, both of which have fallen by more than 40%.
Among them, several products were issued with a scale of 10 billion, and now they have shrunk to the level of 6 billion to 7 billion, which is a very rare situation for fixed income products, and most investors cannot afford it. The reason is that two years ago, when the market advertised REITs, they all believed that this was a fixed income asset with controllable risks.
On the surface, this kind of product is indeed very attractive to low-risk investors, with a product duration of more than 20 years, and you can receive 3-5% interest every year after that. If you don't want to continue to hold it, you can still trade it on the secondary market. When the economic cycle of this type of product is stable, the volatility is controlled within 5%, and if the macro environment improves, it may also bring a trading premium, but this is the most ideal situation.
But this also has a drawback, investors with low risk appetite cannot afford large-scale discount losses, and when the ** of REITs has a large loss, the redemption request of investors with low risk appetite will be more aggressive, such as the ** trend of REITs now.
Taking Jianxin Zhongguancun REIT as an example, it fell by 40% this year. For investors who hold at the outset, the discount premium is -33%. The annualized crediting interest rate of this product is 5.51%, 6 this year3%, that is, investors with low risk appetite have held the product for two years and lost more than 20% of the interest.
From the trend point of view, the trend of this product was relatively stable two years ago, and the discount rate was controlled at the level of 6-8%. Even, in August last year, the product had a 15% premium rate.
It wasn't until December 2022 that the premium rate of the product turned from positive to negative. After that, the product fell for a full year from December last year.
Especially in the case of continuous declines, investors are even more panicked, and the REITs have come out of the panic stampede trend in the past month.
So, although this year's macroeconomic recovery is not as strong as expected, the economy is still growing, and it stands to reason that it is expected to get better and better
In essence, under the influence of this year's macro environment, the underlying assets of these REITs have deteriorated fundamentals. On the other hand, from a trading point of view, if the demand of low-risk investors is stable and high dividends, then the hot high-dividend medium-value strategy this year basically has a dividend yield of more than 5%, and even the Hong Kong stock market can go to the level of 7-8%. And this kind of special valuation has a stable moat, and there is a lot of growth during the year, from the perspective of attractiveness, there is no doubt that the special valuation is more attractive to investors. Therefore, when the rise of China Special Valuation, the REITs market will also be affected to a certain extent.
Let's look at it more intuitively from the image below. Before 2023, there was no divergence between the two trends, and this year, when state-owned enterprises demanded an increase in the dividend rate, the REITs index and the special valuation trend were opposite, and the special valuation outperformed by a large margin.
What's more, REITs, the underlying asset with low risk appetite, will also affect other assets with high risk appetite.
For example, a fixed income + strategy, asset allocation may be 50% of bonds + 30% of REITs + 20% of the portfolio, but when the decline of REITs is too large, the proportion of the rest of the asset allocation will be substantial, the only way is to reduce the rest, and the worst case will cause the mincing of REITs** stop loss at the same time, but also to reduce **.
In other words, this year's A** field encountered unprecedented negative factors and broke out at the same time. But as an investor, you either exit the market or adapt to the market. Historically, optimistic investors win wealth, while pessimistic investors can only learn knowledge. At present, when all the negative factors have been fully deduced, it means that as long as there are slightly positive factors, the market may usher in a wave of short forcing at any time, especially after the market Beijing and Shanghai have successively introduced new real estate policies.
At the same time,The market will always be full of strange rumors and noises in the bottom range, and the bearish view will always appeal more to the mass psychology than the bullish view. But keep in mind that this type of bears are often the longs of the subsequent relay, because they don't have chips in their hands at the moment, and they are just bearish. At the bottom of the market, common sense is often more important.
Looking back on history, at the beginning of 2016, Moutai did not fall to 10PE, and now the hot New Oriental and Good Future are not without falling below the net cash value. Extreme panic in the market often creates various windows of opportunity for good investors.
For the adjustment of this a** field, I believe it will be no exception. Instead of indulging in all kinds of empty cool articles, it is better to calm down and look for excellent companiesOpportunities will only be reserved for those who are prepared.