The opening essay is purely entertaining, so don't take it seriously.
Before the game in Xinjiang and Guangdong. This way.
Instructor Qiu: Ah Hao, against Fujian that day, do you know why you acquiesced to shoot ten times from a distance?
Ah Hao: Lean archery, save Xinjiang!
Director Qiu: Wrong!It is for you to know yourself and know that every arrow you miss will be repaid by the enemy's broken bow!
Hao: The last general is ashamed!Please hand over Brother Shui to the last general!The last general will not be in the water brother will not be in the middle, and the last general in the water brother will not think about it!
Qiu Guide: Son Doll!I can avenge my blood!
Generals: Xinjiang Laodao!Xinjiang Laodao!Xinjiang Laodao!
Over there. Du Feng: Leaving for the Northwest on the same day, who dares to be a pioneer?
Du Feng: Where is Rui Shao, Rui Shao, Rui Shao?
Xiaohu: I ...... in my hometown in Xinjiang
Zhou Qi: Don't panic, the coach knows everything about Wushi, and he can break the enemy army by recommending one person!
Du Feng: Hurry up!
Zhou Qi: General Water!The water general can attack and shoot Ah Hao, and the guard can spread his hands to humiliate Ah Hao, Ah Hao loses his trust, the enemy army is in chaos, and he wins without a fight, what is it?
Du Feng: Wonderful, wonderful!
The battle between Xinjiang and Guangdong has attracted much attention, about the old hatred of the two teams in the finals about ten years ago, about the new hatred of Zhou Qi forcing the palace to leave, about Du Feng, Hu Mingxuan, Zhao Rui and Zhu Xuhang The four people are mixed with the historical entanglement between the two teams, these grievances and grievances that are difficult to determine right and wrong seem to have become more and more profound with the rise of Xinjiang this season, and everything is self-explanatory.
Get a close-up preview so you can watch the game.
Compared to the post-match analysis, the preview is actually the most difficult to write, and it will roll over if you are not careful. Because there are a lot of uncertainties in competitive sports, even if the advantages and disadvantages, characteristics and routines of both sides are clear, but the small probability event is never equal to 0, not to mention, the factors on the court affect each other, and the whole body is affected by one shot, and the whole game is lost if you are not careful. Even if two teams with equal strength may have a huge point difference, the two teams with a huge difference in strength do not rule out a narrow victory or defeat, and there is no inevitable connection between strength and result, only probability tendency.
Therefore, no matter how powerful a basketball expert is, he often makes mistakes, and when he is right, it may be just luck, of course, in 10,000 games, experts must have a higher accuracy rate than ordinary people.
Comments, judgments, and ** on any outcome of a single game are actually the total probabilities of the probabilities of countless factors superimposed by some extremely complex relationship (at least no one has discovered this fx at the moment), that is, the probability above the probability. So, doesn't it make sense to look ahead?No, basketball has its own rules, laws are not equal to formulas, truths, but laws can maximize probability, and the maximum probability has the meaning of maximization. So we only discuss the best defense contest, not the results.
Beginning!
The premise of the opening is that Weems does not play, Zhou Qi plays, and Zhao Rui is not injured (even if he plays, Zhao Rui may play due to a slight fracture in the fibula), which is divided into two large parts:Xinjiang attack Guangdong defense and Guangdong attack Xinjiang defense.
Xinjiang attacked and defended.
Xinjiang's offense is not good, the efficiency of the first stage ranks last, and there is no strong reference for now, because the personnel in the first stage are not neat, the lineup is in the run-in, and Qiu Biao will bring new attempts in almost every game. After returning from the second stage, the offensive efficiency gradually increased, and he is currently ranked 13th, which is actually not very convincing, because the opponent is relatively weak.
But what is certain is that Xinjiang's superior offensive is a "three-board axe":Zhao Rui + Jones' breakout, Abudu's paint blast and Qi Lin's off-ball coverThese guys are also among the top players in the team. The important thing is, what rank is this "three-board axe" placed in the alliance?How many boards can Guangdong's defense limit?To what extent?
About Zhao Rui + Jones's breakout.
Mainly with the help of 15 blocks, Xinjiang's 15 pick-and-roll is actually not the top threat, Zhao Rui and Jones's 3 points are not good, and the center has no baskets, which is not the kind at all. What's more, Guangdong's defense has always been tough, and the guards are very good at chasing defense, even if the center (defense) squats and lets go of the outside line, the guard (defense) can pass through or squeeze through, so that you are forced to take the initiative to give up 3 points.
Anti-Jones, Guangdong center (defense) has a high probability of squatting, if Jones is full of firepower, he can frequently break through the serpentine breakthrough shooting distance or break through the 15 lines after the feint in a straight line, and directly hit the Guangdong center squatting, Du Feng may adopt a more aggressive defensive strategy, high pinch or blue defense (also called ice, blocking the edge) to force Jones to hand over the ball, not to mention whether it is Zhao Rui or Yu Dehao who partners with Jones, if Jones plays without the ball, the effect will not be good, because he has no basket, the space will be very crowded, within the 3-point line, almost equivalent to 4 to 5。 Naturally, the offensive in the paint area, on which Xinjiang depends, will be more difficult.
Almost all of Jones's offense takes place in the paint area, and Guangdong's paint area to the basket is handled by Zhou Qi, he wants to play well in this Xinjiang-Guangdong battle, in fact, it is difficult, unless he travels at the wrong peak, decisively attacks the frame when Zhou Qi is off the court, or uses experience to create kills on the free throw line, or increases offensive and defensive conversions, and hits the opponent unstable on the ground.
Anti-Zhao Rui, Guangdong center (defense) will inevitably be raised, although Zhao Rui's 3 points are not so accurate, absolutely no one dares to enlarge the vacancy. In the face of pinching, Zhao Rui will definitely be able to pass the ball, and now he likes to do it very much, which means,Wu Mei wears three centers and needs to be faster than in the past, and the success rate of finishing is higherAt the same time, when encountering the middle of the defense, do not attack, pass the ball as soon as possible, look for Abudu, Zhu Xuhang or Qi Lin on the outside, the shooter will most likely not be let go, if necessary, Yu Dehao, Huang Rongqi and other 3 points, it is best not to be lazy or too confident, increase the cut into the frame, and respond to the center's pass at any time.
Playing Guangdong, when the main defender is taken care of, it is likely to test the strategy ability of Xinjiang center and the play of role defender.
About the blasting of the paint area in Abudu.
Guangdong No. 4 position is mainly Du Runwang and Ren Junfei, from the current arrangement, the opponent is weak, Du Feng will take Du Runwang as the starter, the other party is strong, first on Ren Junfei, and Xinjiang No. 4 Abudu has outstanding offensive ability, so there is a high probability (just maybe) that Ren Junfei will be the starter.
Aligned with Ren Junfei, can Ah Bu do it?It's not as easy to fight as it used to be. In addition, Zhou Qi guarded the basket, the empty cut was reduced, and the back hit was only left to turn around and lean back reliably, as for the 3 points, he could only resign himself to fate. If Abudu can't blast on a single point, his assists will also drop, and as for rebounds, it may also decrease. In the two meetings last season, Abdu averaged 6 points and 6 points per game5 boards, and in the previous season, two encounters, Abudu averaged 16 per game5 points and 6 boards, not bad?In fact, 5 out of 18 and 7 out of 16 in a game are not very efficient.
So, there could be a catastrophe in Abudu?There is a certain possibility, but you also have to know that the current Xinjiang is different from the past, in the past, it was fighting separately, and now it has a team basketball styleAfter 15 blocks and dismantles, the center covers 3 points, 14 blocks and 3 points, switches to attack the frame and misplaced back play, all of which are ways for Abudu to attack the defense of Guangdong's No. 4 positionWhat matters is whether Xinjiang will pay attention to these methods, and what matters is what the state of Abudu is.
About Qi Lin's off-ball screen.
The good news is that Qi Lin's 3-point shooting is finally back, and the number of 3-point shots and quality have both improved, and with his current performance, he can be called the top scorer performance in the CBA (8 shots per game, 40.).2%), the sudden outbreak of the shooter is actually ironclad evidence that the offensive environment in Xinjiang has improved.
Qi Lin's point is very critical, Xinjiang's 3 points are not good, the investment is small, the efficiency is low, how to make good use of Qi Lin is definitely a major issue in Xinjiang this season. At this point, Qiu Biao is indeed thinking of a way, Xinjiang may be the most frequently used no-ball screen tactics in the entire league, you can note that the No. 45 position is always in the cover. Of course, Du Feng must also be eyeing Qi Lin, so he will compete with his opponent in speed.
However, Qi Lin may be the key to Xinjiang's competition with Guangdong, if Qi Lin can score about 30 points, Xinjiang can compete with Guangdong until the last moment. Of course, there is a big premise that other people's play can't be too stretched.
In view of the 3 points from the bottom of the Xinjiang ranking league, as well as the sudden score that relies more on Zhao Rui + Jones,It is not ruled out that Du Feng will defend the joint defense for a long timeNote that Guangdong's joint defense is a great threat, although the joint defense leaks 3 points, but Guangdong's defensive end is very active, and 131 joint defense, 23 joint defense, 32 joint defense, mixed joint defense, etc., are varied, changing at any timeCan Xinjiang withstand Guangdong's pressure on the defensive end?The situation is not so rosy.
As for the other Telles, Zhu Xuhang and Tang Caiyu (whether they will play or not is uncertain), these 3 can play more than the past, it may be a small probability event, of course, you can't give up **, or that sentence, strong dialogue, role players are extremely crucial.
Xinjiang's offensive is not good, don't expect too much, then look at the defense, the time has come to test "Ahao"!
Guangdong attacked and defended.
Guangdong's current offensive efficiency ranks No. 1, and although Marchand played well against Beijing in the last game and got a triple-double, the most consistent offensive firepower is still Waters and Zhou Qi.
How difficult it is to defend these two people, every point can be blasted, almost never pick opponents, Waters is the best at small and big, as long as Zhou Qi covers, forming a local dislocation, Waters kicks his calf, and then suddenly brakes, and then whether to throw or continue to accelerate, continue to attack the frame, you can switch choices at will, I already have a hunch that Wu Mei Dai three centers may be played. The good news is that Waters' 3-point shooting is actually average, worthy of 3 percent, so he would rather go up than down, rather go up (blue defense) than yellow (strong delay defense), rather than pinch the ball and not let Waters tear through the defense line to tandem teammates.
Why is it said that the time has come to test Yu Dehao?
Xinjiang is currently No. 1 in the league in defensive efficiency this season, why?There is no doubt that the defenders have made a difference. Even compared with Liaoyue, the defensive strength of the Xinjiang guard group is the strongest in the league, with Zhao Rui, Jones, Yu Dehao, Huang Rongqi, and Sirzati ......Wait, the bench may be stronger than the starting backcourt defense, and the role guard may be stronger than the main defender. Among them, Yu Dehao's death entanglement is the most critical.
Strong defense is almost the only value of Yu Dehao's existence in the Xinjiang team at present. The little story at the beginning of the article actually wants to express thatMaybe Yu Dehao's 3 points are very poor, but he can use his defense to make the opponent's 3 points also poor, and if he misses 1 3-pointer, then let the opponent also lose the ball and shoot off (broken bow). Offense and defense are actually the same yin and yang, defense is offense, offense is defense, let the opponent score less points, relatively speaking, isn't it just to score more points yourself?The game is not about not having 100 points in the final score, but whether there are more or less than the opponent. At the same time, there are few offensive and defensive top players, even if the offensive and defensive skills are top, but people's physical fitness and concentration are limited after all, and it is almost impossible to achieve full marks in offense and defense, just like stepping on two boats will always fall into the sea.
That's the value of Yu Dehao:If the offense is not good, then defend to the extreme!Keeping an eye on Waters will be Yu Dehao's only mission!Yu Dehao himself knows this, and now is the time to repay the team's trust. I'm not worried about whether Waters can be limited by Yu Dehao, but I'm afraid that the two will clash ......
About Zhou Qi.
After 15 blocks and dismantling, it is almost impossible to have a short lower shun, generally a short lower shun is a ground pass, or an online pass, but to Zhou Qi passed, but after the lower shun, the high hanging ball on the lower line, nothing else, because of the height of 2.16 meters and the arm span of 2.31 meters, pure crushing Wu Meidai. As long as Waters throws the ball into the sky, Zhou Qi can catch it, which is really terrifying. And even if the basket is not out of position, I don't believe that Wu Meidai can make Zhou Qi play below the average efficiency value of the season.
The best center in Xinjiang is Davis.
How about Davis and Achuer?Davis is 208 tall and has an arm span of 213, and Achuer is 2.13 meters and has an arm span of 228. How did Zhou Qi and Aqiuer fight?In the NBL, the four games are all head-to-head, and Zhou Qi averages 17+9 per game5+4 caps, shooting 682%, Achuer 18+95+3 caps, 57% shooting. Moreover, these fights were at least more than a year ago, and the current Zhou Qi is stronger than in the past, so the 34-year-old Davis is likely to be unable to limit Zhou Qi, who is now in the prime of life, not to mention Edison Wu and thick eyebrows.
What matters is not whether Zhou Qi can be completely restricted, but how to limit Zhou Qi to a relatively acceptable range as much as possible. As I did in the past, in the face of Zhou Qi's downward shun, Abudu made up for the basket, and if Waters passed to Du Runwang, Abu needed to pounce as soon as possible after Wu Meidai returned to the basketRace against the ball. Abudu's defensive effort may be greater than in the past, which may also be part of the reason for the impact of Abudu's offensive efficiency in the future.
Rebounding will definitely be the key to the contest between the two teams, nothing else, card in advance, lock Zhou Qi, and hand over the rebounding to the other 8 people.
As for the others, Xinjiang would rather let others have a big vacancy, but also focus on Du Runwang's 3 points, Marchand may continue the good form of the last game, but it is by no means the end of the world, no team can do everything on the defensive end, snuff out all firepower.
In short, if we want to grasp the main contradictions and main problems, if Xinjiang wants to win, the three points must be high in quantity and high yield, that is, in an extraordinary performance!If Guangdong wants to win, in fact, as long as the two small outsiders do not go up. Of course, you have to find some steps for yourself, or that sentence, the premise of these conclusions is the occurrence of high-probability events, not sudden low-probability events.
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