According to reports, Melbourne's population is expected to surpass Sydney in the next 10 years and regain the title of Australia's largest city.
The new ** survey of Australia's population suggests that with a record proportion of people moving to urban areas in Australia, any political party based outside the main capital city faces a growing problem. Melbourne was Australia's most populous city until 1905 and is expected to recover from the pandemic, mobility restrictions and restrictions. and a full recovery from the demographic blow caused by the closure of borders. Melbourne's population will increase from 520,000 this year to 6.45 million in 2034, according to the Commonwealth Finance Population Centre. Sydney currently has a population of 5.46 million and is expected to grow to 6.36 million by 2034.
The centre expects Melbourne to become Australia's largest city by 2031-32. Demographic changes will lead to an increase in federal constituencies, and Melbourne already has 29 of Australia's 151 seats. The Liberal Party occupies only 3 seats. Both Victoria and NSW have lost seats in the current redistricting, with the number of federal constituencies reduced to 150 based on 2022 population data. But according to the centre's **, Victoria could add two more seats over the next 10 years, both in Melbourne. The centre expects Australia's total population to grow from about 26.5 million to 30.9 million between this year and 2034. Almost all will be concentrated in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Canberra. The proportion of residents of these cities will increase from 606% grew to 625%, which will also shift the constituency from remote areas to these major population centers. The only exception is the Queensland region, which is currently dominated by the Liberal National Party. These areas, which stretch from Cairns in the north to Tweed River in the south, will maintain their population proportions.
During the pandemic, Australia's regional population surged as many city dwellers relocated. But the center found that this would end and the city would become home to young families and more immigrants. Brian Loughnane and Jane Hume, reflecting on the Liberals' defeat in the 2022 Federal**, noted that the party has only four of the 44 inner-city seats left. While the League has a presence in rural constituencies, there is a warning that "any party seeking to form a ** will not be able to obtain a majority through rural and regional voters alone". Labor also has its own concerns, with its review of the 2022 election campaign noting a significant drop in Labour's primary vote for inner-city seats, particularly in Melbourne. Kos Samaras, chief of polling firm Redbridge, said Melbourne's strong population growth meant it would play an increasing role in federal election results and influence policymaking by the major political parties. Samaras, who was Labour's deputy Victoria campaign deputy from 2005 to 2019, said migrants were drawn to Melbourne because of their affordability because housing prices in Melbourne's outlying suburbs were much cheaper than in Sydney. This growing group of voters will play a key role in the outcome of the election.
These voters support Labour because the Liberals have a hard time connecting with them. But the 2022 federation** also shows that these voters can easily switch from Labour to a third party. The latest report from the Population Centre points to the ongoing impact of the coronavirus pandemic, including border closures, on Australia's population. Despite the recent surge in population growth, Australia's total population will be 600,000 fewer by the early 2030s than in 2019. One reason for this is the surge in coronavirus-related deaths: the centre has warned that life expectancy in Australia will be affected by the second half of the 2020s. Data compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that between March 2020 and November this year, nearly 20,800 people died of or related to the new crown. More than half of that happened in 2022, and about 4,000 people are expected to die from Covid this year.