Today, I saw an article by the well-known investor Ying Jianzhong, entitled "Grasp next year's investment opportunities from three dimensions", which touched me deeply, some of the views and ideas involved in it, some of which are very popular, but not taken seriously, and some of them seem to be very novel, often contrary to the public's opinion, but I feel that it is still quite valuable, at least it can bring a certain impact to our investment ideas.
For next year's investment opportunities, the author used three dimensions: time, market and stock. From the perspective of timing, you can become a winner by proposing an annual low** and then selling at a high. This is indeed very popular, the truth seems to be understood, but there are very few things that can be done, but the author proposed a way, that is, you look at the end of each year at the end of the overall ** in a kind of situation, if the whole year is a bull market, the end of the year is also in the bull market relative profit margin is relatively large, then in the next year when you have to think clearly, from the perspective of my experience, when** At the end of the year, it is in a very crazy situation, at least until the first half of the next year, there is no chance, and the probability of losing money at the beginning of the year is very large;For example, when the whole year is weak and at a low level at the end of the year, then the next year's upward space will be very large.
If this probability is used now, does it indicate that there is a lot of room for the market to rise next year, even if there is not much space, I think the basic conditions for profitability exist, and it will not be so bad this year.
Finance
The author's market selection refers to the selection of markets, which are mainly the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the Beijing Stock Exchange and the Beijing Stock Exchange. In fact, in the past, I have always had a different view of the Beijing Stock Exchange, and I always felt that the texture of related companies could not be compared with the main board market, and there was always a subjective definition of "junk market" in my heart.
However, reading the author's comment today, I changed my opinion somewhat, because two years ago, the senior management announced that it would continue to support the innovation and development of small and medium-sized enterprises, thus establishing the Beijing Stock Exchange, which is unprecedented to build a new exchange with such a high standard, and has laid a solid foundation.
Judging from the scale of the current Beijing Stock Exchange, there are more than 230 **, specialized, special and new have become the mainstream, although there are more listed companies, but the total market value is only more than 410 billion yuan, and the circulating market value is only more than 210 billion yuan, such a scale is not as good as the market value of a company on the main board, and the daily turnover is more than 30 billion yuan, which is only a fraction of the main board market.
The logic is precisely here, at present, the Beijing Stock Exchange is still a mini market, which is related to "high specifications" It is not consistent, from this point of view, there is a process of expanding the scale in the future, in my opinion, any emerging market, at the beginning of the scale is relatively small, opportunities and space often exist, when the market is mature enough or the scale expands to a certain extent, it appears bloated, and the upward space is also narrow, which is the same as the current many people are still optimistic about the CSI 300 index, in fact, I think the future of this index is upward, but from the perspective of the industry and the economic cycle, it may be difficult to show the glory of the past, and it is precisely this understanding that the author's novel views on the Beijing Stock Exchange have a great impact on my thinking, which made me re-examine my previous views, and felt that I should still make some corrections and objectively look at the opportunities that may exist in the future of the Beijing Stock Exchange.
Generally speaking, A-shares are at a relatively low level, and the performance in the whole 2023 is unsatisfactory, **type** has lost money for 2 consecutive years, from this point of view, the opportunity to go up in 2024 is greater than the downside, at least in the first half of the year is still worth looking forward to.
Disclaimer: The content in this article is for reference only and does not constitute any operational advice or tips