Cooperation between the Philippines and China on railway projects was originally one of Duterte's important measures to improve relations between the two countries. After Duterte took office, in order to promote the economic development of the Philippines, he signed a railway project agreement worth nearly $5 billion with China.
The project involves three routes, the most important of which is the northern route, which connects the Philippine capital, Manila, with the Special Economic Zone of Clark Freeport. China and the Philippines have held many friendly consultations on this project.
Duterte has also repeatedly praised China as a "close friend" of the Philippines and has shown restraint on the South China Sea issue, which has led to a "honeymoon period" in China-Philippines relations.
In order to ensure the smooth implementation of the project, China has invested a lot of energy and resources from preliminary survey to design.
Unfortunately, since Marcos Jr. became Philippine Secretary of Transportation, the project has encountered frequent difficulties and ended up at a complete impasse.
Marcos Jr. announced in an interview that the Philippines is no longer negotiating loans with China for rail projects, but is seeking cooperation with other countries.
It is reported that the reason for the Philippines is that the interest rate on loans offered by China is too high, with a minimum of 3%, while the Philippines is only willing to accept 25% or less interest rate.
Such an interest rate requirement is obviously unreasonable, and for China, too low an interest rate will increase risks and losses.
In addition, the Philippines has recently challenged China's bottom line on the South China Sea issue, such as forcibly entering Second Thomas Shoal and deliberately ramming Chinese ships, which has led to tensions between China and the Philippines.
Since the Philippines is not sincere, there is no need for China to continue the talks.
Therefore, when the Philippines announced the termination of cooperation with China, China did not make any response, which shows that the Philippine approach will not have any impact on China.
On the other hand, the Philippines, without China's cooperation, has made the future of the railway project very uncertain.
At the moment, the Philippines claims that Japan, South Korea and India are all willing to take over the project, but none of the three countries have publicly confirmed it.
Japan has a certain advantage in high-speed rail technology and may cooperate with the Philippines, however, Japan's high-speed rail technology has stagnated and has been surpassed by China.
There are also rumors that Japan offers 01% ultra-low interest rate loans.
This is Japan's usual tactic, which has been used to snatch India's Mumbai-Ahmadibad high-speed rail project.
However, the project started in 2017 and has been five years now, and Japan has only built 10 kilometers, far behind schedule, and will not be completed until 2028.
By contrast, China's Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway, which started construction in June 2018 and was operational in September this year, reached a speed of 350 kilometers per hour, faster than Japan's Shinkansen.
In terms of efficiency and technology, China is a leader.
South Korea and India's high-speed rail technology, not to mention, South Korea's high-speed rail technology developed late, there are no outstanding achievements, and the technical level is far inferior to Japan.
India's high-speed rail still relies on Japan to build it, and it has no ability to help others repair it.
To sum up, China is the best partner of the Philippines, and China has a high level of infrastructure capacity, sufficient capital, technology and experience to help the Philippines build railways.
However, the short-sightedness and dishonesty of the Philippines have made it impossible for China and the Philippines to cooperate, and whether other partners can be found in the end depends on the test of time.