"It is useful to use policies to support stable expectations and strengthen confidence, but this role can only be auxiliary, and the main hope cannot be pinned on macroeconomic regulation and control, and on macroeconomic policy arrangements. The fundamental policy to stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence lies in comprehensively deepening reform and opening up. â
On December 16, at the Sanya Finance and Economics International Forum with the theme of "Exploring the Road to High-level Opening up in a Complex Environment", Gao Peiyong, member of the Faculty of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and former vice president, made the above conclusion.
The first economic work conference held a few days ago said that some difficulties and challenges need to be overcome to further promote the economic recovery, mainly due to insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and still many hidden risks.
Gao Peiyong said that China's economy has entered the post-epidemic recovery stage, and the most important keyword in China's economic operation is economic recovery. At present and for some time to come, the most important task facing economic work is to promote economic recovery and speed up the process of economic recovery.
Gao Peiyong believes that the complexity of the current economic environment is concentrated in the weakening of expectations, if the main contradiction is the weakening of expectations, it is obvious that the first "bull's nose" is to strengthen confidence and stabilize expectations. It is necessary to grasp strong confidence and stable expectations as a top priority, and introduce policies and implement reforms around strong confidence and stable expectations. Strengthening confidence and stabilizing expectations is the only way for economic work at present.
He pointed out that at present, the reform tasks in many key areas still need to be further completed, especially the reform tasks in improving market expectations and stimulating market vitality are still facing many challenges, there are also weaknesses in the rule of law in the way and means of economic governance, and there is also a long way to go in the construction of marketization, rule of law, internationalization, and business environment. To plan and explore the road of high-level opening up, we must further emancipate our minds, unswervingly deepen reform and opening up, and strive to break down deep-seated, institutional, and institutional obstacles.
**Zhang Junkuo, former deputy director of the Development Research Center, also mentioned at the forum that the current problem of unstable expectations and weak confidence is still relatively prominent. Since the beginning of this year, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), which reflects corporate expectations and industrial prosperity, has been up and down and changeable. On the one hand, this situation shows that the problem of unstable expectations and weak confidence is still relatively prominent, and on the other hand, it also shows that the factors affecting expected confidence are relatively complex, including short-term market reasons and deeper structural and institutional reasons in the medium and long term, and more targeted countermeasures need to be taken.
Zhang Junkuo said: In recent years, along with the complex changes in the domestic and international environment and situation, in the process of coping with various risks and challenges, there have been signs of "non-marketization" in some fields to varying degrees, such as increased administrative intervention and weakening of market-oriented forces. For example, in order to control the development of some important commodities, some localities and departments often implement administrative intervention and even direct price limits. In order to meet emission targets, some localities simply adopt measures such as power rationing and gas rationing. Even in the process of implementing policies such as "optimizing the structure", "industrial upgrading", and "converting old and new kinetic energy", the power of administrative intervention is getting stronger and stronger.
In this regard, Zhang Junkuo said that although there is a certain policy basis for such intervention, no matter what the reason, if it is used too much or even becomes the norm, it will objectively lead to the strengthening of planning and administrative forces and the weakening of market forces, which will destroy the market regulation mechanism and make the first signal fail. It will not only produce a huge crowding out effect, but also be detrimental to the optimization of the business environment and the enhancement of the confidence of market players, and ultimately damage the stamina of development.
Zhang Junkuo stressed that it is important to consolidate the positive trend of economic recovery, promote innovation and expand demand, and other supportive policies, but what is more important and fundamental is to deepen reform and expand opening up. This is not only the most basic guarantee for short-term stable expectations, strong confidence and vitality, but also the most important measure to further release the potential of domestic demand and enhance the momentum of development.
The next step of reform must be in accordance with the general laws of the market economy and the requirements of promoting high-quality development, further clarify the boundaries of the role, and strive to do a good job of what should be done, what should be managed in place, what should be provided should be fully provided, and at the same time, the things that should be decided by the market should be fully liberalized. Zhang Junkuo said.