There were some posts circulating on the Internet before, discussing a theory, that is, if Timur had not died suddenly on the way to the east, would he have led a million army to break through the mountains and rivers of the Ming Dynasty and recreate the glory of the Mongol Empire.
I don't quite agree with this statement, there are multiple factors superimposed, and it is difficult for Timur to unify China.
Timur began to replace the Western Chagatai Khanate in 1370 A.D. as the de facto ruler of the Timurid Empire, and after decades of expansion in the east and west, it occupied today's Central Asia, the Middle East, Afghanistan and other regions, becoming a vast empire. In particular, he marched into the Golden Horde twice, ransacked the rich cities and steppes in the Golden Horde, and seized a large number of war horses, gold and silver treasures, which greatly enriched the national strength.
The strength of the country is reflected in the strength of the national defense army, the enrichment of the national treasury, the prosperity of the people, the overall administrative management efficiency, the overall social identity of the people, the overall resource conditions of the country, and the ability to regulate and control the external environment.
Timur wanted to expand all the way eastward to the territory of the Ming Dynasty, and there were several problems that needed to be solved, otherwise it would be difficult for him to gain an advantage against the Ming Dynasty, and even the Great Wall of Jiayuguan, the westernmost point of the Ming Dynasty, could not enter.
1. There are still two forces in front of the Ming Dynasty.
Although the Chagatai Khanate is **, the Eastern Chagatai Khanate still continues the orthodox status of the Chagatai Khan, and Timur is a chaotic minister and thief who usurps power and seizes the throne in the eyes of the kings of the Chagatai Khanate. Although he was forced to submit to the Timurid Empire under pressure, it was difficult to guarantee that he would not be stabbed in the back when Timur's crusade encountered obstacles.
In addition, there is a force, in 1368 A.D., the upper echelons of the Yuan Dynasty withdrew from Beijing and returned to the Mobei grassland, which as a whole still continued the legal status of the Genghis Khan ** family, and always claimed to be the Zhengshuo of the Mongol Empire. Although the Mongols lost the eighteen provinces of the Han region in the Central Plains, they still maintained a strong military strength, with nearly 200,000 cavalry corps.
If Timur wants to establish the Second Mongol Empire, and if he wants to destroy the Ming Dynasty, he must first solve the group of tigers and wolves on his side on the way to the east. The Northern Yuan Dynasty in Mobei would not be easily annexed by Timur, and the first opponent that the army from the Western Regions was very likely to encounter was the Northern Yuan. Of course, another possibility is not ruled out, the two sides reached some kind of tacit understanding, and joined hands to attack the Ming Dynasty, but in the end it should be the Northern Yuan Dynasty descended from Kublai Khan, and the Mongols once again entered the Central Plains.
2 Decades of continuous expansion, the internal need for recuperation, the territory is too vast, and the people of the conquered forces are unstable.
In fact, the problems faced by Timur's grandson were similar to those of the former Qin Dynasty of the Di nationality, which relied on strong military strength and brought the tribal regimes of different ethnic groups under their rule, and did not properly adjust policies to appease and deal with long-standing contradictions, resulting in a strong state on the outside and turbulence on the inside.
For example, the Transoxiana region of Central Asia was originally the territory of the Chagatai Khanate, and there are still many suzerains in the Chagatai system living on this land. The Afghan region is also home to the descendants of the left-behind legions arranged by Genghis Khan, and the Hazara tribe has a strong armed force. In Persia, it was originally the territory of the Ilkhanate established by Hulegu, and after the Golden Horde Zanibe Khan defeated the Ilkhanate, the local governors of the Ilkhanate supported their own troops and fell into the Great **, Timur led the army to break through, and incorporated the rich territory of the Islamic world in the Middle East into the territory of the Timurid Empire.
The two marches into the Golden Horde caused thousands of people to the Golden Horde, and hundreds of thousands of people themselves, damaged the country's vitality, and also deepened national grievances, especially the inhumane plundering and destruction in the Golden Horde, which made every Golden Horde's subjects grit their teeth with hatred.
However, whenever Timur's Eastern Expedition to the Ming Dynasty encountered obstacles, and the news of the defeat reached the Timurid Empire, these forces that were not sincerely surrendered would not hesitate to counterattack and carry out the restoration movement until the Timurid Empire was divided.
3 His opponent, the Ming Dynasty, was in a thriving trend at this time, and at the same time had a strong military force.
In 1405 AD, when Timur was preparing for his eastward crusade, it was at the beginning of the reign of Zhu Di, the Yongle Emperor of the Ming Dynasty. The Yongle Emperor, who usurped power as a vassal king and seized the throne of his nephew, has dealt with various problems after the "Battle of Jingyan", pacified all forces, and the entire Ming Dynasty is developing on the right track of prosperity.
Starting from Zhu Yuanzhang, the Hongwu Emperor, in order to prevent military threats from the north, the Ming Dynasty set up a nine-sided important town on the line of the Great Wall from Jiayuguan to Shanhaiguan, with a garrison of more than 900,000 people. The soldiers of the Ming Dynasty are also the elite divisions of a hundred battles trained in the bloody and bloody unification war for many years, and they are still fighting at ease on their own land. Even if Timur's army marched to the frontier of the Ming Dynasty to fight, it would have to pay a great price.
4. Whether the Timurid Empire had the strength to support a million-strong army to fight is a question.
The number written on the Internet that Timur led a million-strong army to the east to conquer the Ming Dynasty is a big exaggeration. Historically, all kinds of war accounts have a tendency to exaggerate numbers and bluff to frighten the enemy. The agricultural resource endowment formed by the climatic and geographical conditions of Central Asia and the Middle East was not enough to support the million-strong army to the east, and Timur mainly relied on cavalry legions to fight, and the financial resources and materials needed to support large-scale cavalry legions were very huge. When Genghis Khan first conquered the Khorezm Kingdom in Central Asia, he mobilized only about 200,000 cavalry corps in the country. Therefore, it is difficult to lead a million troops across nearly 7,000 kilometers to attack the Ming Dynasty.
In 1405, Timur, a tyrant, died of illness in the army, and his dream of restoring the Mongol Empire came to an end.