The Philippine conflict in the South China Sea has raised US concerns, and the United States has shown great interest in Philippine provocations in the South China Sea. On December 9 and December 10, the Philippines carried out provocative actions at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal for two consecutive days. These provocations are clearly well planned and are escalating. On December 10, after the China Coast Guard took control of its illegal resupply, a Philippine vessel deliberately rammed a Chinese coast guard vessel. This series of provocations was clearly premeditated, both in scale, step and level. What is even more impossible to ignore is that the US side seems to be eager to show its strength and prepare for possible further actions. There are various indications that major emergencies may occur on the islands and reefs in the South China Sea during the "Christmas" period in late December. Previously, we analyzed that the Philippine supply window for illegally "beaching"** at Second Thomas Shoal was at the end of November, but it was obviously postponed by 10 days. The Philippines' provocative action was dramatic, first causing trouble at Scarborough Shoal and then moving to Second Thomas Shoal overnight.
This can be called "Ming Xiu plank road, secret crossing Chen Cang", or called "sound east to west". The Philippines has gone so far as to display its art of war in front of China, the birthplace of military strategy. According to information released by the China Coast Guard on December 9 and 10, the Philippines first sent three fishing and official vessels into the vicinity of Scarborough Shoal with the aim of providing supplies to nearby fishing vessels. Subsequently, the Chinese coast guard imposed "control measures" on it, that is, two large coast guard ships used water cannons to drive away the three Philippine vessels. The Philippines even claimed to have been "attacked" by a remote sonic device, causing many crew members to react unwell. The Chinese Coast Guard's water cannon "control" of Philippine government vessels trespassing on Scarborough Shoal has been escalated. Compared with the incident in August this year, the last time it was more of a warning nature, and did not directly impact the Philippine ship, but this time it was the water cannon that directly hit the official ship of the Philippines. However, the Philippines did not stop the operation and ran to Second Thomas Shoal overnight. The Philippines may believe that their provocation has diverted the attention of the Chinese coast guard from Second Thomas Shoal to Scarborough Shoal, thereby increasing the success rate of restocking at Second Thomas Shoal.
However, the Chinese coast guard has seen through the Philippines' scheme. When two Philippine Coast Guard vessels, one official ship and one supply vessel attempted to illegally "beach" and transport construction supplies to Second Thomas Shoal**, the Chinese Coast Guard took "control". This time the supply failed again, causing the Philippines "Yunaza." At 06:39, the No. 1 boat deliberately rammed the China Coast Guard Boat 21556, causing the two boats to scrape. According to the development of the situation, the two provocations in two consecutive days should only be an "outpost war", and the next major crisis around the islands and reefs in the South China Sea will be faced, because it cannot be ruled out that the US military will officially end up and stir up the situation. The Philippine provocation comes in the context of the US littoral combat ship USS Giffords trespassing into the waters adjacent to Second Thomas Shoal on December 4 without China's permission. This can be understood as a temptation. Although during the last U.S.-Philippine military exercise, the United States informed the Philippines that it would assist it in completing its resupply, the United States is still waiting for the accumulation and foreshadowing of a "** atmosphere."
At present, the US military and the Philippines are still "acting separately", which shows that the US military is judging that it is still not the most suitable time to "end". The Philippines seems to have been trying to use international support to gain an advantage in the South China Sea. It is reported that the Philippine Coast Guard announced that it would strengthen maritime vigilance during the "Christmas" period and organize a "Christmas fleet" composed of 40 fishing boats and coast guard boats to go to the vicinity of Second Thomas Shoal. At the same time, the United States has stepped up its voice in the South China Sea, condemning China's alleged aggression against Philippine ships and pledging to support a free and open Indo-Pacific. At the Japan-South Korea summit, US adviser Jake Sullivan called for strengthening cooperation among the coast guards to safeguard freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, East China Sea and Taiwan Strait. However, all this seems to be a well-planned "drama", and the PLA seems to have been prepared for a long time. According to satellite images disclosed by foreign media, the PLA has deployed a Type 052D destroyer, a Type 056A frigate and a Type 022 high-speed missile boat on Mischief Reef, which is only more than 30 kilometers away from Ren'ai Jiao.
If the Philippines and the United States want to launch a provocation during Christmas, they may face a resolute response from the PLA. The King of the South Seas has prepared a "Christmas gift" for them.