Liu Shengjun: How can you solve your worries?Only reform

The full text is 4080 words in total and is about 8 minutes long.

This article**: Liu Shengjun's overall view (produced by Liu Shengjun Micro Finance).

Text: Liu Shengjun.

The next China is still China. ——

Reform and opening up is a key move in determining the fate of contemporary China. ——

The Third Plenary Session of the 11th CPC Central Committee was epoch-making, and the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee was also epoch-making. ——

In the past 10 years of the new era, the reforms we have promoted have been all-round, deep-seated and fundamental, and the achievements we have made have been historical, revolutionary and groundbreaking. -- The first meeting of the 20th ** Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reform

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it has been repeatedly emphasized that reform and opening up is a key move to determine the fate of contemporary China, as well as a key move to achieve the "two centenary" goals and realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. This is true knowledge derived from practice. Practice is the only criterion for testing truth.

From 1989 to 1990, China's economy faced a severe test, and the year-on-year growth rate of the two years was only that. 84 percent, well below 113%。

The only way to solve worries is through reform. This was the way out for China's economy, borrowed by Zhu Rongji, then secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, to describe the way out of China's economy by borrowing the words of Cao Cao during the Three Kingdoms period. In April 1990, ** was officially announcedDevelop and open up Pudong；At the beginning of 1992, *** made a speech in the south;In 1993, China was officially formedEstablish a socialist market economic system

Subsequently, China's economy achieved a "shocking reversal", and the year-on-year growth rate soared to. 24%, from overcooling to overheating overnight, economic troubles from deflation to inflation, foreign media described "half of the world's cranes concentrated in Pudong, Shanghai".

The 90s can be called the eventful years of reform and opening up. The Great One:State-owned enterprises have broken the three railways (iron wages, iron rice bowls, and iron chairs), the reform of the tax sharing system, and the commercial restructuring of banks

In this process, the reform has been accompanied by the rapid rise of the private economy and the influx of foreign-funded enterprises.

In the Asian financial crisis in 97, China's economy was hit again, and the growth rate fell below 8% for two consecutive years. Reform is working again:In 1998, the reform of the housing system, the reform of the first institution, the new round of state-owned enterprise reform in 1999 (the "Decision on Several Major Issues Concerning the Reform and Development of State-owned Enterprises"), the establishment of four major asset management companies, the inclusion of the non-public economy in the constitution, and the signing of the WTO accession agreement between China and the United States

As a result, China's economy has started a decade with the fastest growth rate since the reform and opening up. The 2001 book "The Imminent Collapse of China" by the Chinese-American scholar Zhang Jiadun has become a laughing stock of history.

In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States, announcing the end of the latest round of globalization, and the world economy began to bid farewell to prosperity and move towards a "new mediocrity". Since China's economy was much more outward-looking than it was in 1997, the impact was greater and deeper.

In order to alleviate the severe impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, China stimulated the economy with a "4 trillion yuan" spur, although it reaped the miracle of high-speed rail, but also paid the price of soaring debt and overcapacity, and entered a complex situation of "three phases of superposition" (the period of shifting the growth rate, the painful period of structural adjustment, and the digestion period of the early stimulus policy). In the face of new problems, we had to take a sharp brake to control, and the economic growth rate began to decline again. Therefore, the effect of the "four trillion stimulus" is only short-lived. This teaches us a lesson: stimulus cannot be a substitute for reform. Yang Weimin, former deputy director of the Central Finance Office, pointed out

One of the lessons learned from the response to the international financial crisis is that fiscal and monetary policies can iron out economic fluctuations and prevent economic ups and downs, but the height or potential growth of growth is determined by reform.

The supply-side structural reforms launched in 2015, especially the "de-capacity" and "real estate de-inventory", have greatly alleviated the pressure on overcapacity and real estate inventories, and promoted the economy to bottom out.

However, long-standing structural and institutional problems have not been fundamentally resolved. Some problems have been further solidified, such as the real estate bubble and the problem of shifting from real to virtual.

Since 2018, China-US relations have undergone drastic changes, and the evolution of major changes unseen in a century has accelerated, and export-oriented industries and high-tech industries have been significantly affected.

The new crown epidemic from 2020 to 2022 has brought a deep impact on the economy and society, and the sequelae of the "scarring effect" are difficult to digest in the short term.

The drastic changes in Sino-US relations and the impact of the epidemic have also interfered with the process of economic reform to a certain extent.

Today, in the face of the complex situation at home and abroad, "how to solve the worries?".Only reform", this phrase is still our motto:

1. China's economy in terms of innovation, consumption, and urbanizationThere is still a lot of potential。China is highly dependent on developed countries in terms of key technologies, which in turn means that there is a huge space for innovationChina's household consumption accounts for only 40% of GDP, far below the world average of 60%.The urbanization rate of China's permanent population is 6522%, while the urbanization rate of the registered population is only 477%, which is much lower than the 80% urbanization rate in developed countries.

Institutional factors remain the key constraint on economic potential。For example, too many administrative approvals restrict the vitality of innovation;The "four mountains" of education, pension, medical care and real estate have inhibited consumptionFactors such as land transfer, household registration, and social security have constrained the urbanization process.

Therefore, to unlock new room for growth, we must rely on reform. In recent years, the biggest constraint we face in our transition to "high-quality development" is the lack of new growth momentum. This is the fundamental reason why economic growth is difficult to get rid of traditional factors such as real estate, infrastructure, and debt expansion.

At the same time, with the changes in the domestic and foreign environment, some new challenges have become more prominent:

1. The expectations of the private economy are unstable and the confidence is insufficient. It is important to know that the private economy is not only the "five, six, seven" but also the main force of innovation.

2. The "decoupling and chain breaking" promoted by the United States has had a certain impact on attracting foreign investment and stabilizing the industrial chain.

3. The scarring effect of the epidemic has made consumers more cautious.

4. The problem of local debt has repeatedly gotten out of control.

To solve these problems, the way out is still reform

1. Only by deepening reform and truly realizing the competitive neutrality of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises can we fundamentally stimulate the confidence and vitality of private enterprises

2. Only by deepening institutional opening-up can we attract and retain foreign investment and counter the "decoupling and broken chain";

3. Only by promoting the reform of the income distribution system and increasing the proportion of residents' income can we stimulate the consumption potential

4. Only by promoting the reform of the local financial system, improving transparency, and establishing an effective restraint mechanism can we get rid of the impulse of land finance and political performance.

Fortunately, the 336 reforms proposed in the Decision on Several Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reform at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in 2013 provide us with a clear top-level design, and their significance is extraordinary. For almost all issues in economic and social development, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee gave a specific top-level design.

The Third Plenary Session of the 11 th CPC Central Committee was epoch-making and opened a new historical period of reform, opening up, and socialist modernizationThe Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) was also epoch-making, opening a new era of comprehensively deepening reform and promoting reform through the overall design of the system, and creating a new situation in China's reform and opening up.

Yang Weimin said: The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee has made unprecedented efforts in reform. Every sentence is reform, and every word has strength. After repeated scrutiny and tempering, the full text 210,000 words, 16 parts, except for the first part is a general introduction, the other 15 fields, 60 tasks, each sentence is a reform, or a reform direction, a reform goal, a reform measure. Personally, I believe that compared with the reform decisions of the previous six Third Plenary Sessions, the reform of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee is the most vigorous.

Needless to say, the current reforms face greater vested interest obstacles than they did in the eighties. Simplification, one-size-fits-all, layer-by-layer, low-grade red, high-grade black, these phenomena are all "".Reform the deep water zone"Embodiment of syndrome. Breaking through the resistance of vested interests is not an easy task. It can be seen from the Qinling villa incident.

However, reform is like sailing against the current, and it can only advance but not retreat. On the one hand, we must use historical courage to attack vested interestsOn the other hand, it is also necessary to stimulate the enthusiasm of the **. Only by mobilizing the enthusiasm of the first can the reform be effectively implemented and the reform can be avoided from idling。To achieve this,The construction of a first-class assessment and incentive mechanism guided by "reform performance" is the bull's nose to break through reform.

Reform is also inseparable from the emancipation of the mind. The progress of concepts has always been the source driving force for promoting reform and opening up. For example, in order to achieve the neutrality of competition between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, it is necessary to emancipate the mind;In order to completely dispel the concerns of private enterprises, we also need ideological emancipation and theoretical breakthroughs.

For how to promote reform, a series of important expositions by the general secretary provide us with a way to go and a roadmap:

We have used the method of reform to solve a series of problems in the development of the cause of the party and the state. At the same time, in the process of understanding and transforming the world, old problems have been solved, new problems have arisen, and the system always needs to be constantly improved, so reform can neither be achieved overnight nor once and for all.

At present, extremely extensive and profound changes are taking place in the domestic and international environment, China's development is facing a series of outstanding contradictions and challenges, and there are still many difficulties and problems on the way forward. The key to solving these problems lies in deepening reform.

Reform and opening up are only in progress, not completed. China has entered the deep water area of reform, and what needs to be solved are hard bones, and at this time we need the courage to "know that there are tigers in the mountains, and prefer to go to the tiger mountains", and constantly push the reform forward. Our principle in promoting reform is to be bold and steady.

It is necessary to take grasping implementation as the focus of promoting reform work, do solid work, move steadily and steadily, and seek practical results. With regard to the reform measures that have already been introduced, it is necessary to strengthen follow-up and understanding, summarize experience and solve problems in a timely manner, and consolidate and develop the achievements of reform. With regard to newly launched reform measures or reform pilot projects, it is necessary to intensify the organization and coordination of work to ensure that results are achieved.

To develop a mixed-ownership economy, the basic policy has been clarified, and the key is the detailed rules, and the success or failure lies in the detailed rules.

In carrying out reforms, it is impossible for the existing work pattern and system to be completely broken, and it is impossible for them to be stable and free from any risks. As long as it has been fully demonstrated and evaluated, as long as it is in line with reality and must be done, it is still necessary to do it boldly.

Breaking through the barriers of ideology and concepts, breaking through the barriers of solidified interests, and emancipating the mind are the most important things. On the issue of deepening reform, some ideological and conceptual obstacles often come not from outside the system but from within the system. Without emancipating our minds, it will be difficult for us to see clearly the crux of the solidification of various interests, to find the right direction and focus for breakthroughs, and to come up with creative reform measures.

In April this year, the first meeting of the 20th ** Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reform clearly pointed out:

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, we have deepened reform in an all-round way with great political courage, adhered to the guidance of goals, highlighted the orientation of problems, dared to break through the deep water area, dared to gnaw hard bones, dared to wade into dangerous waters, dared to face new contradictions and new challenges, resolutely eliminated the shortcomings of various systems and mechanisms, and opened up a new situation with unprecedented strength. In the past 10 years of the new era, the reforms we have promoted have been all-round, deep-seated and fundamental, and the achievements we have made have been historical, revolutionary and groundbreaking. Looking at the whole world, no country or political party can have such political courage and historical responsibility, dare to make bold moves, turn inward, and revolutionize itself, and no country or political party can promote such a large-scale, large-scale, and large-scale reform in such a short period of time, which is a distinctive feature and significant advantage of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics.

The author believes that as long as we break through the resistance of vested interests with historical courage, boldly promote the emancipation of the mind, mobilize the enthusiasm of the highest level of development, take reform as the main method to solve various problems, and make the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources and better play a leading role, the potential and vitality of China's economy can be stimulated and gradually move towards high-quality development.

The next China is still China.

Liu Shengjun

Economists who insist on telling the truth

Political Economy + Big Historical View

In 2014, he participated in the Prime Minister's Economic Symposium

Chief Economist of Tianjushi Group

Liu Shengjun is the founder of Micro Finance

Member of the Shanghai Economic Committee of the Zhi Gong Party

Chief expert of Shandong Provincial Human Resources Development Promotion Association

He is the author of "The Next Decade".

Shandong Heze Dingtao people