China-Singapore Jingwei, December 12 (Xinhua) -- In 2024, the reserve requirement ratio is expected to be cut twice, and the RMB exchange rate will gradually appreciate.
The author: Lian Ping, Chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum.
Otaku Finance 100 scholars foresee that in 2024, there will be a series of new characteristics and new states in the macroeconomic operation in 2024, which need to be well grasped. From the perspective of the external environment, global policies will undergo significant changes, and at the same time, the cyclical trend of economic operation will also undergo a series of changes, which are mainly reflected in two aspects.
First, the Fed's monetary policy is likely to gradually move from stable to loose in 2024, because the data of the US economy in some aspects looks good, but at the same time, there are some data that prove that the US economy has begun to weaken, and the current European economy has been in recession, and the recession in major European countries is more obvious. In addition, the economic operation of some other regions of the world has also been affected and pressured, so in this case, the Fed's monetary policy in 2024 may be adjusted according to actual needs after stopping interest rate hikes for a period of time.
Second, in the process of the above-mentioned monetary policy adjustment, global investment and investment will be affected by a series of impacts, such as some changes in the direction of capital flows, and the global growth rate may be affected by the downward pressure on the economy, and some countries may have more obvious balance of payments abnormalities. These are two of the most important new features that the global economy is likely to emerge in 2024.
Judging from the domestic situation, the general trend of the "troika" in 2024 is "one rise, one stability and one tenacity". The so-called "one liter" refers to investment. There are two positive factors in the investment, one is infrastructure construction investment, a large number of projects will be implemented under the promotion of policies, especially in 2024, the easing of fiscal policy and the degree of expansion will have a greater impact. Second, manufacturing investment, driven by technological progress, coupled with the further rebound in demand, the equipment manufacturing industry has moved forward vigorously, which will drive the growth rate of investment in the manufacturing industry to accelerate significantly. The acceleration of the pace of investment in these two areas will help the growth rate of fixed asset investment increase by more than one percentage point compared with 2023, and may reach 4% or higher.
At the same time, consumption will still maintain a steady growth, but I am afraid that there will not be a more obvious ** like in 2023, because 2023 will appear on a low base in 2022**, and the growth rate will slow down in 2024, so consumption is "stable".
From the perspective of exports, we have analyzed the operation trend of the international market above, and exports will be under pressure to a certain extent in 2024, but China has a good industrial chain and a good chain foundation, and the categories are relatively complete, so China's export resilience will continue to be maintained.
In terms of prices, the price operation situation will gradually improve in 2024, and in the future, driven by the rebound in demand, some improvements will gradually occur in both the output gap and the deflator, which will promote the gradual stabilization of prices. We believe that both CPI and PPI are likely to run in the range of 1%-2% in 2024, although the increase is not large, but it will change the trend of continuing to fluctuate around "0" in 2023.
In addition, the risk profile is likely to moderate in 2024. The current risks are mainly twofold, one is the debt pressure and risk of the local government, in the case of the active financial force, borrowing new treasury bonds, allowing the local government to issue more bonds, so that the debt pressure and risk situation of the local government have begun to ease, and may improve in 2024.
The second aspect of risk is real estate, and many policies have been introduced to support real estate from both the supply side and the demand side, but the main problem lies with real estate companies. We believe that in 2024, various policies will be strengthened, and the support of monetary and financial structural policies will be greater and more targeted, so the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize in the first half of 2024.
Finally, in terms of macro policy, in view of the external and internal uncertainties in economic operation in 2024, mainly in real estate, we believe that macro policy should continue to maintain a certain degree of expansion should be the overall tone. Fiscal policy will be more efficient, which could lead to a fiscal deficit of 36%-3.The 8% range, and at the same time, will make monetary policy loose adjustment on a prudent basis, such as liquidity to remain reasonable and abundant, interest rate levels to fall further, and it is hoped that in 2024 we will see the possibility of two cuts in the reserve ratio, which will increase market liquidity, so that the future interest rate level can be further lowered on the existing basis. At the same time, on this basis, the basic fluctuation direction of the RMB exchange rate in 2024 is to gradually appreciate.
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