At the end of 2023, the capital market is still repeatedly difficult to figure out and grasp, and the 3,000-point defense battle has started again: after the 52nd A-share fell below 3,000 points on October 20, it was repaired again in 7 trading days, and in just one and a half months, it fell below 3,000 points for the 53rd time on December 5.
So, what exactly does the oft-mentioned 3000 points mean?What should investors think of it?
Historically, when the index returns above 3,000 points, the market is usually more confident and more liquid. Since February 26, 2007, when the Shanghai Composite Index stood above 3,000 points for the first time, it has experienced a total of 53 "3,000 point defense battles", carrying many important historical twists and turns and market expectations.
Of course, the rise and fall of the ** index will be affected by many factors, 3000 points is more of a reference value, and more important is the analysis and judgment of fundamentals and development trends.
The trend of the Shanghai Composite Index since 2007
Data**: wind;As of 202312.08 As an investor, the most important thing to do is to stay calm, rational and patient. Especially towards the end of the year, when the market is repeatedly seesawing around 3,000 points, it is very important to do your own investment plan and risk management. Many investors' current goals have changed from the previous ones"Take advantage of the remaining time to get more money"., became"Smoothly get through the rest of 2023 and stop the bleeding for this year's losses", "cushioning".The demand is highlighted.
Taleb, the author of Antifragile, once wrote in this book:"Investing the vast majority of assets in low-risk, low-expected return assets, and a small number in high-risk, high-expected return assets, such a barbell-shaped allocation idea is very helpful in dealing with the impact of uncertainty. ”
What is a "low-risk, low-expected-return" asset?Looking at the current investment targets in the market, it seems that pure bonds** are more in line with this characteristic, and there is just a newly issued pure bond** recently, which was issued on December 4BlackRock Eversheds 30-Day Holding Bond** (Class A: 020202, Class C: 020203).
Why is pure debt ** a plan b for a barbell configuration?
At the end of the third quarter of this year, I counted the changes in the size of bonds, and I found that pure debt seems to be becoming more and more popular.
Wind data shows that:As of the third quarter, the scale of pure debt** (medium and long-term + short-term) was 5,192.4 billion yuan, an increase of 687.1 billion yuan, or more than 15%, compared with 4,505.3 billion yuan at the end of last year, the growth rate is much higherHybrid primary debt base, secondary debt base, convertible bonds
I think there are two reasons why the scale of pure debt** has grown so fast:On the one hand, under the condition that the bank's wealth management income continues to decline, pure debt ** has slowly won the favor of investors by virtue of its own characteristicsOn the other hand, the current and subsequent macro environment may be more friendly to the bond market, and pure bonds** can continue to play their own advantages.
(1) The income of bank wealth management continued to decline, and the "popularity" of pure debt ** rose
In recent years, bank wealth management has "stepped down from the altar". According to the data released by the banking wealth management registration and custody center, since 2019, the average rate of return of bank wealth management products has been declining, and the end of 2022 has come, and there is a high probability that it will continue to decline this year.
Data**: Lower interest rates in banking wealth management registries mean they are less attractive to investors, which is why more and more investors with low to medium risk appetite are looking for alternatives.
In my opinion, the core of satisfying the financial needs of spare money is mainly"Stability + Appreciation + Liquidity".Stability is the most important thing, and long-term returns can be higher than demand deposits and currencies, but the volatility must not be too large.
From this point of view, the performance of pure debt** is still good.
First of allAccording to the historical data of the past 8 years, the long-term performance of the CSI Pure Bond ** Index is relatively stable, although the volatility is greater than that of the currency ** index, but the return is also higher than that of the currency**. 
Data**: wind, data interval 201310.1-2023.9.30。CSI Pure Bond Bond Index**930609CSI, CSI Currency ** Index H11025csi。The annualized volatility cycle is selected as a month, and the yield algorithm is the ordinary yield. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
SecondlyThe proportion of bond investment in pure debt** is not less than 80% of the assets, and do not invest in ** or convertible bonds, not only can play a hedging effect in the first time, but also have more room for operation in terms of leverage, and the bond market is expected to bring better income elasticity when it is good.
(2) The opportunities in the bond market outweigh the risks
In the first eight months of this year, the bond market has gone bullish, and the net value of many bond bases has not only filled the hole left by last year, but even hit a new high.
Although the bond market has also been adjusted since the third quarter, in terms of the current macro environment, the domestic economy is still focusing on moderate recovery, superimposed on low interest rates, the pattern of monetary easing + credit easing is likely to continue, and these macro conditions may form a certain support for the bond market.
And we also need to know that even if there may be a net drawdown in the short term, the risk is relatively controllable, which is also the value of pure debt.
How is BlackRock Eversheds doing?
There are a lot of pure bonds in the market at the moment, why would I pay so much attention to a new issue?
Actually, I saw it at firstBlackRock Eversheds 30-Day Holding Bond** (Class A: 020202, Class C: 020203). , it didn't particularly attract me, after all, the logic of pure debt ** is very different, nothing more than that"Pure debt investment strategy, bond investment ratio is not less than 80% of ** assets, do not invest in ** + convertible bonds, and the risk rating is R2 with medium and low risk".These.
Probably a bright spot on the surface, the low rate counts as one. The rate of this new ** is only 022%, the average of the same class is 031%Even if the rate of the debt base has not been high, who would dislike the rate of being lower?After all, it is the cost of your own investment that you are saving.
When I took a closer look at this **, I found that there was a sparkle hidden in this **:It fully integrates BlackRock Group's fixed income investment and research capabilities at home and abroad, as well as rich experience in investing in the domestic market, and strives to achieve higher absolute returns under the premise of controlling risks.
**The manager is deeply involved in the bond market
Wang Yang, the proposed manager of this new **, has 14 years of experience, including 7 years of bond investment experience, and has been in the bond market for many years, and is good at constructing portfolio interest rate strategies and portfolio risk management.
His products under managementBlackRock Puyue Fengli one-year holding hybridIt was established at the end of November last year, and it has only been established for more than a year now, but the performance of this ** since its establishment is very eye-catching.
Wind data shows that as of the third quarter of this year,The increase of this ** is 126%, ranking in the top 17% of its peers(The same kind is the second-level classification of wind, the same below).；The maximum drawdown for the year was -102%, the average of the same class is -1606%, it can be said that it has achieved "both offense and defense". (Data**: Wind, as of 2023.)09.30, co-managed by ** manager Li Qian).
The investment research team is strong
The core of pure debt** is to increase the expected return while controlling the drawdown by adjusting leverage and other means. This seemingly simple operation is not easy for managers, because it requires not only the ability to screen high-quality credit subjects, but also a complete set of risk control systems.
However, for"Fixed income power"., this is not a problem, because BlackRock** is very strong and has three major advantages:
1. Rooted in China's bond market, attach importance to credit analysis
BlackRock's parent company, BlackRock Group, has accumulated more than 10 years of experience in investing in Chinese bonds, as of March this yearBlackRock manages about 120 billion yuan of Chinese bond assets. Therefore, BlackRock's investment research team can fully absorb the resource advantages of the group's global investment research platform while basing itself on local investment experience, and explore investment opportunities in the bond market in multiple dimensions. (Data**: BlackRock, as of March 2023.) The business isolation system is implemented between the manager and the shareholders, and the shareholders do not directly participate in the investment and operation of the property. ）
In terms of credit research and analysis, BlackRock pays attention to two aspects: risk discovery and value discovery, evaluates the investment value of the issuer in multiple ways through the way of scorecard, and at the same time, it will also use the different perspectives of the overseas investment research team to do a cross-collision, and use a wider range of information in exchange for investment targets with better risk-return ratio.
2. Forward-looking macro judgment
BlackRock's investment research team not only uses financial data indicator tracking and analysis models to study and judge economic trends and policy trends, and looks forward to bond market interest rate trends, but also uses BlackRock's think tank to comprehensively analyze global macroeconomic policies and various assets, combining the group's many years of Chinese bond investment experience with overseas unique perspectives to accurately grasp market allocation opportunities, which is an advantage that many ** companies do not have.
3. Whole-process risk management
As a global leader in the field of risk control, BlackRock has extended its strong risk management capabilities to China. With a full-process, multi-dimensional risk management system, BlackRock's investment research team provides scientific and rigorous assessment and analysis of the risks and risk events undertaken by the portfolio, and strives to help managers strictly control risks, and ultimately achieve better drawdown control and post-risk returns.
It is worth mentioning that this new hair ** is set up30-day holding periodThe advantage of this is that it can not only help investors standardize their investment behavior, face fluctuations rationally, but also pay attention to the accumulation of small amounts and reduce the costs caused by frequent redemptionsAt the same time, it is also conducive to improving the efficiency of capital utilization, so that the manager has more ample operating space to show his talents.
If you want to add a bit of calmness to your investment at the end of 2023, if you want to find a good place for your spare money, in the case of declining bank financial returnsBlackRock Eversheds 30-Day Hold Bond (Class A: 020202, Class C: 020203).This pure debt** may be a better plan B. 