On Monday, A-shares bottomed out and rebounded, but liquor stocks became a "burden", and CSI liquor fell nearly 4% intraday, and fell 162%。Recently, liquor stocks have continued to be poor, CSI liquor has been in the dark for 5 consecutive months, with a cumulative decline of more than 18%, and the latest point is only about 8% from the previous low, and it has retraced about 42% compared with the historical high. 
The leading liquor ** is even worse
In detail, the ** liquor stocks on Monday were even more so in the liquor leader, of which Luzhou Laojiao bore the brunt, and the stock was 368% opened sharply lower, and the opening flash crash**, once fell more than 8% at around 9:31, and still fell 445%。According to the first financial report, some institutions said that Luzhou Laojiao lowered the ex-factory price of its core products Guojiao 1573 and Tequ. In this regard, Luzhou Laojiao said that the settlement of the above-mentioned core products has not changed, but the profit pre-adjustment for some customers.
In addition, the Wuliangye gap in the leading liquor once fell more than 4%, *time**261%；Shanxi Fenjiu opened low and fell nearly 6% at one point, and fell 2 when it was *55%；Kweichow Moutai once fell nearly 3%, *time**041%；Yanghe shares once fell nearly 3%, and rose slightly by 027%。Of the 18 constituent stocks of CSI Liquor, 13 closed down on Monday, accounting for 72%. The total market value of 18 shares evaporated more than 43 billion yuan on Monday, of which Wuliangye evaporated 14.5 billion yuan and Luzhou Laojiao evaporated 12.4 billion yuan.
Why do liquor stocks keep falling?
As the former "eternal god", the continuous decline of liquor stocks has always been the focus of discussion among investors, especially the recent continuous decline, and there is even more discussion about why liquor has been falling. From a comprehensive market perspective, the following three perspectives are mentioned more:
First, the overall performance of the A** field is average, for example, the CSI 300 Index is 3 consecutive negatives, of which it has accumulated 11 since 202368%。In this context, it is not surprising that the plate water falls low. Second, since 2023, the AI track has been in full swing, and TMT+ media and other sectors have shined, which is bound to have a blood-pumping effect on old tracks such as consumption, medicine, and new energy. The third is the "dammed lake" phenomenon of the liquor sector itself, which affects the expectations of investors. According to the "2023 China Liquor Market Interim Research Report", compared with the same period in 2022, 80% of liquor distributors will have a serious backlog of inventory in 2023, and both first-tier and second-tier liquor will have varying degrees of inversion. According to data from Oriental Wealth Choice, as of the end of the third quarter, the total inventory of the 18 constituent stocks of CSI Liquor reached 135.5 billion yuan, an increase of 12 percent over the same period in 20225%。For example, the inventory of Kweichow Moutai reached 409900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1651%。
The liquor sector is now a positive factor
Of course, with the long-term and large-scale development of the liquor sector, the positive factors of the liquor sector have also begun to appear. On the one hand, the valuation of the liquor sector is becoming reasonable. According to data from Oriental Wealth Choice, the latest price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI Liquor Index is 2558 times, which is 71 times on February 10, 2021Compared to 46 times, it has fallen by about 64%, and the current valuation has basically returned to the level of early 2019. 
In addition, the performance of the liquor sector is also showing a steady and positive trend. In the third quarter of this year, the liquor sector achieved a total net profit attributable to the parent company of 3527.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1792%。Since the third quarter of 2020, the liquor sector has maintained double-digit growth for 13 consecutive quarters. 
In addition, the institution has increased the allocation of the liquor sector. Take the public offering ** as an example, the secondary industries that actively favored stocks in the third quarter to increase their positions were liquor, medical services, industrial metals, auto parts, and ** increased their positions to 192pct、 1.38pct、 0.54pct、 0.48pct、 0.41pct。Specifically, Kweichow Moutai is still the largest heavy stock in the public offering, and Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu are also in the top 20 heavy stocks in the public offering. 
Institutions are optimistic about the liquor sector
At present, more and more institutions say that the future of liquor stocks is promising. IFC pointed out that the recent sentiment of the sector is mainly due to top-down concerns about the slope of subsequent demand recovery, and the CPI in November also continued to fall year-on-year. The leading wine companies in the industry and the wine companies with upward potential can still deliver relatively high-quality performance, and there is no need to worry too much about the confidence of performance, and the increase in industry concentration is not only reflected in the level of wine companies, but also in the concentration of channel resources to large merchants. At present, the valuation of the sector is already relatively cost-effective. Open source ** pointed out that the current liquor has entered the off-season, the industry demand is stable, and considering the market operation ability of liquor companies, it theoretically has the premise and foundation to start a new cycle. The subsequent differentiation of liquor structure may become more and more obvious, and the head liquor companies should enjoy the best dividends. The price increase of Moutai is of great significance to the industry. In the short term, Moutai's price increase will drive the confidence and enthusiasm of brand soy sauce liquor and high-end fragrant liquor channels to increase inventory. In the medium and long term, the price increase has opened the ceiling of the industry, and the logic of liquor has been strengthened, and it is possible to start a new round of liquor cycle.
From the perspective of inventory, Guojin ** said that at present, especially large businessmen, they tend to be more rational and more risk-resistant, and there is no need to worry too much about problems such as high channel inventory. The fundamentals of liquor are still in a steady recovery trend, but the dynamic sales differentiation between brand liquor companies and low-tier liquor companies, and the differentiation between large and small merchants are still being interpreted.
Of course, there are people who are cautious about liquor. For example, Lin Yuan, a private equity boss, previously said that now he will only hold liquor and will no longer ** liquor.
Article**: Oriental Wealth Research Center).