Russian siege troops and "Wagner" infiltration teams have recently poured into the north and south cities of Avadiivka, preparing to carry out a comprehensive liquidation of the remaining Ukrainian forces in order to end the protracted siege. Some analysts believe that the Russian army's "siege" operation actually means that the "important stronghold" of the Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk region is about to be lost. As the battles of Maryinka, Pisky and Avadiivka draw to a close, the nine-year siege of the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk by Ukrainian forces is coming to an end, while Russian forces will turn their attention to the western front of Mut and the northern front of the Kupyansk region. (The M1 tank became a lifesaver for the Ukrainian army).
Judging from the overall situation of Russia and Ukraine, Zelensky's military counterattack activities have gradually come to a standstill since he announced on December 3 that the Ukrainian army had switched to a full-front defensive posture in winter. Zelensky and his military advisers personally organized "micro-exercises", which led to the fact that the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had to dig fortifications and trenches with difficulty in sub-zero frozen soil. Zelensky's "brilliant tactics" directly led to the failure of the Ukrainian army to put pressure on the Russian army in time, and instead allowed the Russian army to launch a counterattack on the local front as scheduled. (On the ** Mutt front, the Russian army has taken the absolute initiative). Now the Russian army has taken the initiative to attack on multiple fronts, testing the real situation of the Ukrainian grassroots troops through frequent military tests, and ascertaining the artillery firepower output capacity of the Ukrainian army and the deployment of troops.
For example, the Russian army recently attacked the Novomykhailovka stronghold south of Maryinka, and at the same time divided its forces to recapture the heights of the Kryshchivka stronghold southwest of **Mut. In addition, on the Kharkiv front north of Donetsk in the Kupyansk region, the Russian army is also organizing troops to blockade the perimeter of the Ukrainian army, and the final combat goal is the soft underbelly of the Ukrainian army's Kupyansk defense line - Sinkiivka. (Russia and Ukraine have engaged in a number of fierce battles around Kupyansk). Considering that the city of Kupyansk is an important transportation hub and forward defense core of the Ukrainian army in the Kharkiv region, the fighting between the two sides in this area is likely to completely change the overall situation of Russia and Ukraine, so the military activities of the Russian army on the northern front have always been more cautious.
Elite Russian troops had already advanced north from the Crimean forest months ago, gradually penetrating into Ukraine's defensive positions on the northern front along the Crimean-Svato direction, claiming that 100,000 troops had pressed Kupyansk. The goal of the Russian army's offensive was to achieve a broad breakthrough on the northern front and to target Izyum in order to secure control of Slavyansk. The forward unit of the Russian army is already only 9 kilometers away from the city of Kupyansk, but just as the Russian army was preparing to launch an offensive on the Ukrainian army on the northern front, the Ukrainian army's "spring **" suddenly unfolded, causing the focus of the game between the two sides to shift to the Zaporozhye and Yuzhnodonetsk fronts, which made the situation on the northern front of Kupyansk slightly eased. However, the Ukrainian army is in a state of confusion and bewilderment.
With the crushing defeat of the Ukrainian army**, the Russian army has once again increased its military investment in the Kupyansk region, remobilizing part of its forces to forward positions on the northern front. After the fierce fighting in Avadiivka, many of the main Ukrainian forces are exhausted and exhausted. In order to reinforce the Avadiivka battlefield, the Ukrainian army mobilized reserves and mobile units from several fronts, which not only emptied the defenses of other fronts, but also led to an insufficient supply of ammunition. In order to hold the Kupyansk defensive line, the Ukrainian army has sent the latest received American-made M1A1 "Abrams" main battle tanks to the front line, becoming the last "hole card" of the Ukrainian army on the ground battlefield. The M1A1 tank is one of the latest "active" main battle tanks to be received by the Ukrainian army.
The German "Leopard 2" tank and the British "Challenger" 2 tank were destroyed by the Russian army one after another, and the M1A1 tank became the last "fig leaf" for the honor of Western tanks. Prior to this, the German Leopard-2A6, the British Challenger-2, and the American M1 Abrams tank were described in the West as the "strongest" tank combination in the world today, with strong combat and defensive capabilities. However, the first two have suffered heavy losses on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, while the M1A1 main battle tank has not yet been destroyed due to the late delivery to the Ukrainian army. However, over time, it may only be a matter of time before the M1A1 main battle tank is "unboxed" on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, some analysts believe.
The Ukrainian army is pinning its hopes on 31 M1 tanks against 30,000 Russian synthetic armored forces, and this expectation is actually self-defeating. The Russian army is equipped with a large number of drone groups known as the "Reaper of Death", which makes it a question worth thinking about how the Ukrainian army can compete with it. What kind of strategic plan will they take?In addition, in addition to the M1A1 main battle tank, reconnaissance drones of the Russian army found a Leopard-1A5 main battle tank that should have become a museum treasure long ago on the Kupyansk front. In the current Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, the performance of this tank appears to be somewhat outdated, its armor protection is very weak, it cannot withstand the anti-tank fire of the time during its service, and its 105mm rifled gun cannot pose a substantial threat to the existing Russian main battle tanks.
Sending such an "old antique" to the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, even in the face of the deeply upgraded T-62BVM tanks in the same period, there is no advantage at all, not to mention that the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield is mainly dominated by T-72 and T-90 tanks. Although the German Leopard-1A5 tank was "disliked" by the Ukrainian army at the beginning, now the Ukrainian army is seriously lacking in heavy equipment, and the grassroots troops can only "pinch their noses" to send this tank to the front line. In the face of reconnaissance drones and powerful firepower equipped by the Russian army, the Ukrainian army will face great challenges. At the moment, the Russian 1st Guards Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is advancing rapidly north of Kupyansk, due south, and the unit has previously controlled a number of Ukrainian positions, including strongholds such as Limanpersh.
The Russian 1st and 15th Guards Motorized Infantry Regiments, the 26th Tank Regiment, and the 2nd Motorized Infantry Division penetrated directly east of Kupyansk to the west. In the direction of the Russian army's offensive, the number of Ukrainian defense forces is scarce, and there are only battalion-level units such as the 13th Air Assault Battalion, the 225th Territorial Defense Assault Battalion and the 2nd Mechanized Infantry Battalion north of Kupyansk, and there is currently only a complete 101st Territorial Defense Brigade. And to the east of Kupyansk, there are only the 54th Mechanized Infantry Brigade brigades that have just arrived in a hurry from **Muth. In this case, the Ukrainian defense forces will face great pressure and challenges, and they urgently need to develop a suitable strategy to respond to the offensive of the Russian army. Although the garrison of the Ukrainian army in the Kupyansk defense zone has increased, it has not yet developed a superiority in troops.
Even if it is equipped with M1A1 main battle tanks, the Ukrainian army is still at a significant disadvantage in the face of the fact that the Russian army has more and more advanced main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Therefore, the failure of the siege of Avadiivka indicates that the infiltration plan of the Ukrainian army in Kherson will also be difficult to succeed. These signs indicate that the opportunities for the Ukrainian army are becoming less and less. With the end of the two battlefields, the Kupyansk and Izyum fronts are likely to become the focus of future fighting between Russia and Ukraine. And judging from the current deployment of troops, the Ukrainian army is obviously at an absolute disadvantage. If Western countries fail to provide adequate ** assistance in a timely manner, the Ukrainian army may face the risk of a rapid rout in the future.