The picture shows the topic of this issue of Russia** Putin, the European god operation, Lavrov's plane has been sewn;Hersh broke the news again that the Russian and Ukrainian armies may have begun secret peace talks;Putin ordered Russia to expand its army again, and Zelensky also implemented conscription reform;The Russian-Ukrainian conflict that left the seams, von der Leyen, the working boy who pretended to be the boss.
Yesterday, I went to Hangzhou to visit a furniture factory, and last evening I returned to Xi'an.
During the visit, I was deeply impressed by a sentence from the narrator of the furniture factory.
The narrator said: "Good carpenters have a mantra: 'Attention, leave a seam here', this seam is a seam left for the hot expansion and cold contraction of the material." ”
This sentence of hers inspired me a lot.
I connect with the people and things around me, with everything in the world, and then with myself. I'm thinking, not only carpenters have to keep seams, but also nature, isn't there also seams?Many things need to be left behind.
Mountains and rivers should leave seams, celestial bodies should leave seams, crops should also be seams, and society should also be seams.
The landscape has a seam, and there is a beautiful sound of flowing water. Only when there is a crack in the celestial body can there be a glorious trip of the sun and the moon. When crops are seamed, they have light, breath and life. Only when there is a seam in society can there be space for recuperation. The stressful life also needs to leave a gap, otherwise, it is impossible to have a free release of the mind.
I am an international military blogger, and I believe that there should also be a gap between countries, and only with this gap can there be lasting peace and tranquility.
The crux of the problem lies in the fact that the Palestinian people have been unable to realize their legitimate national rights to an independent state, so China has always stressed that the fundamental way out for Palestinian-Israeli peace lies in the "two-state solution," and only the two-state solution can leave a gap.
The same is true of the Russia-Ukraine issue, and there must be a gap, including how the international community of Russia and Ukraine can create a gap left for the two countries in the future, and a gap recognized by both sides, which is the key to the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This crack, from a military point of view, at the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, my personal judgment was that Russia and Ukraine drew a river to rule, and the river is this crack. Looking back today, the width of a river may not be enough, and a strategic buffer zone is needed.
So my judgment in the show has always been that in the future, between Russia and Ukraine, no matter how big it is, Russia and Europe will inevitably have a strategic buffer zone, and at present, Russia and Europe both think that there is none. Both sides don't recognize it, so they will just continue to fight.
Because there is no seam, both Europe and Russia are actually quite panicked now.
The picture shows the former United States ** Trump on the European side, there is a discussion internally about whether to set up a 100 billion euro military ** in the future, because on the one hand, the Ukrainian army ** has gone, on the other hand, the United States ** is getting closer, polls show: Trump is ahead of Biden, if Trump comes to power, it is likely to be a big stroke of the pen and reduce his participation in NATO, at least he will say: "Europe you go first, I have to rest for a while", he will lead the United States and sit on the bench. Then the European battlefield will have to rely on Europe itself.
Recently, Wolff, president of the German Council on Foreign Relations, said: "Europe urgently needs to prepare for the 'Trump 2' emergency. Security policy is one of the key points. ”
Estonian Prime Minister Kallas said: "At the recent EU summit, a proposal was made to create such a hundred billion euros** in order to take precautions when Trump returns to the White House. ”
Klein, a former senior US diplomat, also said: "No European country can defend itself against the threats of the modern world." It is therefore in Europe's interest to strengthen cooperation on security policy, including co-financing defense spending. ”
So isn't this scene interesting?The United States portrayed Russia as a huge threat to Europe, led the European "eastward expansion of NATO", forced Russia into a corner, and led to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Now, Europe is very nervous about the fact that the general situation is not good, Trump may be elected, and the United States may run away halfway, and calls for preventive measures.
There is a group of people in Europe today who are very worried that while the US Congress can prevent Trump from withdrawing from NATO, it is entirely possible that Trump will weaken the alliance in other ways.
In addition, Trump's recent defense secretary Esper said: "It is very likely that Trump will withdraw some US troops from allies, starting with Germany." He may be trying to pull the United States out of NATO. ”
As soon as they heard this, the Europeans became even more nervous, and this is not enough, which would be disastrous for Europe, because, if such a situation arises, Russia may target the three Baltic states, thus proving that NATO is nothing more than a paper tiger.
I think that a group of people in Europe today are saying this, some of them are really scaring themselves, and the other part is trying to take advantage of the slope to get off the donkey, continue to pursue Europe's strategic autonomy in the "post-Russia-Ukraine conflict" era, and in the process of pursuing, re-establish cooperation with Russia.
Whether you believe it or not, it is a fact today that Russia has broken through the blockade of the West through the hands of the OSCE and reconnected with some European countries.
The picture shows the street scene of Skopje, the capital of North Macedonia, from November 30 to December 1, the OSCE Foreign Ministers' Meeting was held in Skopje, the capital of North Macedonia. ”
Russia's "Point of View" commented that no matter what the outcome of the talks is, the visit itself is an important victory for Russia over the West.
However, it seems that Lavrov, Zakharova and the Russian newspaper "Viewpoint" did not make it clear this time, so I will make it clear for them.
With the thorny energy issue, the defeat of the Ukrainian army, the ineffectiveness of sanctions, the Kremlin like an immortal little power, and the idea of hoping for civil strife in Russia has been shattered, more and more European elites have realized that blind confrontation with Russia is futile for Europe, and in the end it may have to go to the negotiating table. Instead of waiting for Trump to come to power and walk to the negotiating table with his shoes and hats off, it is better to walk to the negotiating table in suits and leather shoes today. This has enabled more and more European rationalists to speak out.
So yesterday I said that there is a tendency for the east wind to prevail over the west wind in Europe.
The picture shows Russia's *** Chief Lavrov, you can see it from the process of Lavrov's flight to North Macedonia this time.
Because Lavrov was previously sanctioned by the West, his plane was forbidden to pass through EU airspace.
So a few days before the meeting, the EU foreign affairs and security policy spokesman Stano made a foreshadowing: "If some countries decide to allow Russian planes to fly over their territory, or if the North Macedonian authorities allow Lavrov to land and attend the meeting, this is normal and does not violate the sanctions." ”
Almost at the same time, Bulgaria, whose leadership is extremely anti-Russian, also said: "Allow planes carrying the Russian Foreign Minister to pass through its airspace." ”
That is, the flight route of Lavrov's aircraft will be, first over the Black Sea, then into Bulgarian airspace, and then to North Macedonia.
However, Bulgaria *** said: Lavrov's plane can fly over Bulgaria, but Zakharova cannot fly on this plane.
In the end, Lavrov's plane chose the route: it did not pass through Bulgaria, but flew to North Macedonia through Greek airspace.
Bulgaria's voice this time once again proves a point, because the Americans do not want Europe and Russia to talk, so the representatives of the United States in Europe, such as European Commission President von der Leyen and German Foreign Minister Baerbock, are resolutely opposed, as are Ukraine and the three Baltic countries, however, there are still quite a few European countries that want to engage with Russia as soon as possible.
The picture shows Hungarian Prime Minister Orban is the most typical is Hungary's Orban, the day before yesterday on the 29th, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban publicly criticized von der Leyen, he said: "In the eyes of the public, how common this situation is, Europe is being run by the European Commission and its president, we think of her, and we read her words, as if the European leader is speaking, in fact, she is our employee, our employee, her job is to implement our decisions" Before Orban finished speaking, there was applause on the stage.
So you see that this Orban's mouth is also very poisonous, saying that you von der Leyen, don't be a ** boss for a day, put yourself in the right position, you are a working boy. When he said this, he was actually speaking to other EU countries.
So, is the Russia-Ukraine conflict really as I said, and has Europe really adjusted its thinking and prepared for the "post-Russia-Ukraine conflict" era?
Let's look at another thing, Hersh broke the news again.
The latest news, the famous American investigative journalist Seymour Hersh broke the news on the "subscription stack"**, he wrote that "the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks, led by the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Gerasimov and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny, seem to have started." ”
Please note that Hersh said that the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks seem to have started, but neither between the United States and Russia, nor between the political leaders of Russia and Ukraine, but between the top echelons of the two armies of Russia and Ukraine, the commanders of the Russian army, Gerasimov and Zaluzhny, who are pushing for it.
Hersh then broke the news specifically: "The two sides negotiated peace terms. Possible options include the Ukrainian side could join NATO, but NATO promised not to deploy troops and offensive ** on the territory of Ukraine, in exchange for Russia to retain Crimea and part of the territory of Donetsk, Luhansk and other places occupied during the special military operation. ”
Hersh also said that the White House is firmly opposed to this plan, and Zelensky is also against it. But Hersh said that an American ** told me that Zelensky was told that the problem was not solved by him, but by the military, so with or without him, the negotiations would continue.
I know that many people will not believe Hersh's revelations after hearing them.
But I think it's very likely. Why?
Let's look at one more thing, there is a detail in it.
We all know that after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, on August 25 last year, Putin signed an order to increase the establishment of the Russian army by 1370,000 people, the total number of Russian troops increased to 1.15 million, specifically 1150628 people, Putin's ** order officially took effect on January 1 this year. Please remember this figure, the total number of Russian troops is 1.15 million, which just came into effect at the beginning of this year.
But yesterday, Putin again signed an order to increase the total number of Russian troops by another 170,000, 115 plus 17, to 1.32 million.
As a result, the total number of personnel of the Russian Armed Forces has increased from 2.03 million to 2.2 million. In other words, the Russian armed forces have been adjusted this time, and only the combat strength of the Russian army has increased by 170,000, and the other establishments have not changed.
And this time, the expansion of the Russian army is carried out in stages, not in one go, and second, it is not intended to be mobilized, and it is a contract soldier. The reason for the expansion is that Russia faces the related threats of the special military operation and the expansion of NATO.
So the Russian army is expanding, what about the Ukrainian army on the other side?
The picture shows Ukraine**ZelenskyAfter Putin signed the order for the expansion of the Russian army yesterday, last night, Ukraine**Zelensky made a **speech, and also promised to reform the conscription law.
"Everyone in Ukraine understands that this area needs to change," Zelensky said. ”
Why change it?Because there are currently about 820,000 Ukrainians serving in the Armed Forces ......According to the existing laws of Ukraine, these soldiers cannot be demobilized. However, some Ukrainian soldiers previously proposed to increase rotation, and the Ukrainian army hopes to allow the exhausted front-line soldiers to recover, so in order to allow some soldiers to temporarily return to their hometowns to recuperate, Ukraine needs to recruit again, so that the front will not collapse. ”
This is obviously Ukraine's reaction after Russia announced the expansion of its army, but this time, in his speech, Zelensky said something like this, he said: "The new conscription targets will also be the focus of the reform of the conscription law, and any reform plan must be formulated and approved by the military leadership." ”
Now there is a lot of noise on the Internet at home and abroad, some people say that Zelensky and Zaluzhny are infighting, some people say that there is no such thing, the relationship between the two is very good, this is an information war launched by Russia, of course I don't know whether the infighting between the two of them is true or false. But I think that regardless of whether the infighting is true or not, I estimate that Gerasimov and Zaluzhny, who Hersh broke the news this time, are promoting negotiations.
Because wars are always started by those who want to fight and ended by those who don't.
The Russian army is surrounded by vacancies today, and the poor are not in a hurry;Just want the Ukrainian army to lose its fighting spirit and retreat in the face of difficulties. Thus, leaving a slit.
Okay, pay attention to Zhongnan Swordsman and interpret the latest topics for you.