After the supply of lithography machines is cut off, ASML's after-sales service may be cut off, and YMTC seeks to buy back.
On September 1, the Dutch semiconductor control measures will be officially implemented, completely banning the advanced DUV lithography machine to China, what impact will this have on China's semiconductor industry?
In short, China's chip manufacturing industry and its related industries may face the embarrassing situation of reducing or suspending production for some debugging tasks, such as orders for 812-14nm chips, AI chips and mature chips.
At the beginning of this year, the president of ASML swore that there would be no impact on the shipment of lithography machines to China in 2023, but the result was"Total supply cut-off"。
According to a report by the United States, Biden wants to completely limit ASML's shipments of lithography machines to China, so he invokes FDP rules to start a new round of blockades, or ban the sale of old DUV series such as the 1980DI.
Visible, in Biden's"Crazy"In the midst of limitations, all compromises are"Draw a pie"。However, more serious than the supply cut is the severance of after-sales service in Chinese mainland.
Some U.S. experts believe that they cannot guarantee that Chinese companies had purchased large quantities of lithography systems above the 1980DI model from ASML in the advanced manufacturing equipment** before the supply cut.
Therefore, when Biden discusses the new regulations, he will also take into account the cutting off of the after-sales service of the lithography machine. If the new regulations are officially promulgated, Chinese companies that have purchased lithography machines will enter the full range"Bankruptcy"of the situation.
Some time ago, the United States imposed sanctions on China"Polarization", this one has no gunsmoke"War", who wins and who loses?
* Get up and receive"Wassenaar arrangement"Although ASML cannot ship freely, Chinese companies are still among ASML's third largest customers with more than 1,000 lithography machines, and the relationship between the two sides has gradually turned"Interdependence"。
With the reduction in the supply and demand of upstream and downstream chip orders, TSMC, Samsung and other wafer foundries have reduced the number of equipment purchased from ASML, which has made the company's revenue begin to decline.
However, Biden has issued new rules that if ASML stops providing after-sales service to China, the 1,000 lithography machines previously purchased by Chinese companies may be damaged by components and signal source failures"Scrapped"failure, the two sides will also be at an impasse.
According to foreign reports, this move will seriously damage the interests of Chinese companies, and ASML may be countered for breach of contract, and the most serious may be the loss of patent rights in China.
Is it possible for the Dutch company ASML to lose its lithography patent rights in China?The answer is: possibly.
According to reports, after the news of after-sales service, the CEO of YMTC officially announced that if ASML refuses to provide after-sales service for Chinese companies that purchase advanced equipment, the latter will have to take buyback measures to ensure the normal operation of Chinese semiconductor companies.
According to the relevant provisions of the commercial contract, ASML refused to provide after-sales service, which is obviously a breach of contract, which is feasible in YMTC, but the amount of repurchase is too high, and the repurchase funds are at least tens of billions of yuan, so ASML obviously will not agree, so we have to consider its response strategy after the default.
1) China can file a complaint with ASML, and if ASML refuses to compensate on the grounds of the Dutch injunction, China can consider refusing to recognize the intellectual property rights of all Dutch companies.
2) Directly enter the litigation process and ask ASML to forcibly buy back the equipment that the Chinese company has already purchased. If the lawsuit is lost but the judgment is not enforced, the Chinese side will be justified in confiscating all of its assets in the Netherlands, including the patent rights to the lithography machine.
In conclusion, there is no final winner in the semiconductor game, regardless of whether there is a violation or not, the most likely outcome is"Lose both"。