Autumn and Winter Check-in Challenge
Today is December 11th, the last month of 2023, more than a week has passed unconsciously, and more than 10 days have just passed, how is the property market performing?
A third of December has passed, and the sluggish property market is still in the downturn, and in the first period of December, the property market transactions continued to decline.
According to data from the China Index Research Institute, the overall transaction area of the property market fell by 18 month-on-month last week73%, down 2362%。Among them, the first-tier cities saw the largest decline, with the overall transaction area falling by 28 month-on-month15%, down 39 percent year-on-year27%。Although the second- and third-tier cities are better than the first-tier cities, the overall situation is still declining, and the overall transaction area of the second-tier cities represents a month-on-month decrease of 1267%, down 17. year-on-year66%；The third and fourth tier cities decreased by 2285%, down 1822%。Not only that, but the decline is still expanding, and the property market is even more deserted than in November.
According to past experience, December is the last month of every day, and the property market usually has a "warped tail"** However, judging from the property market data in the first week of December this year, it may be a big question mark. Looking back at 2023, the property market does not seem to be really good, even at the end of February and early March, the property market has come out of a short period of "Xiaoyangchun"**, but in the next time, the property market has been in a downward trend, and the new housing market is slightly better, especially the second-hand houses with a high number of listings, which is simply "not the most difficult, only more difficult".
The property market is still in the doldrums, and it has been carried out for two years to "stabilize the property market", but the effect is not satisfactory.
To give two examples, the transaction area of the property market in December, the first-tier city of Shenzhen, fell by 41 month-on-month9%, down 334%；Guangzhou fell 26%, down 41%。Why do you want to cite these two cities alone, because Guangzhou and Shenzhen just set off a new round of "loosening tide" in November, but did not achieve the desired effect, although in the late November to drive a wave of heat, this is only half a month, the property market began to go "downhill" again, this is not as good as the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" period, the policy effect duration is too short, it is really difficult.
In other words, the property market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen is declining, is the property market in Beijing and Shanghai good? In fact, no, the transaction volume of the Beijing-Shanghai property market in December was also declining, and the decline was greater than that of Guangzhou and Shenzhen. This is still the case in first-tier cities, not to mention other cities, and it can also be seen from the data that the property market transaction volume in second, third and fourth-tier cities in December is still declining month-on-month. The performance of the property market in all cities is very "collapsed", and the relaxation of the property market can be said to be almost "exhausted", and even the first-tier cities are also trying to "relax", can the property market still be "saved"?
The property market in December is still declining, has it given up on "bailing out the market"? In fact, it is not, the "stabilization of the property market" in December is still ongoing, but it is more reflected in the first end.
Most recently, the six major state-owned banks actively expressed their support for the financing of real estate enterprises and promoted a virtuous cycle of finance and real estate. In fact, at the end of November for a period of time, there have been a number of banks to convene a meeting of real estate companies, and there is a "50 real estate enterprises white list" news, this is following last year's "financial 16" after another major move, perhaps because of the "three arrows" landing effect is not good, or because the implementation is not in place, so there is this year's round of heavy statements, including the central bank, eight departments also jointly stated "increase financial support for the private economy".
To be honest, the reason why the property market will continue to be sluggish this year has a lot to do with the real estate risks that have not yet been fully cleared. As one of the main bodies of the first end of real estate, real estate companies have an unshirkable responsibility, of course, this is also a "stubborn disease" accumulated over a long period of time in the past. It is not only necessary to "stabilize the property market", but also to "save housing enterprises", and to "stabilize housing prices", and the property market this year is really not easy. But no matter what, what should be done still has to be done, we are also continuing to do, and we have increased our efforts, whether it is the first end or the demand side, the property market still needs to continue to make efforts in order to really get out of the predicament.
To sum up, in the past one-third of December, the property market is still performing poorly, and all cities are declining. What do you think about this? Feel free to leave a message in the comment area.