100 Families Help Program This week (1218 22nd), A-shares once again unilaterally **, the three major indexes continued to close in the shade.
For the week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 094%, Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index respectively**175% and 123%, with a turnover of 3,511 billion, a decrease of 426.7 billion from last week, and an average daily turnover of only 702.2 billion.
In terms of industry sectors, among the 56 industry classifications of Tongdaxin, only transportation services, general machinery, household goods and construction machinery turned red, and the remaining 52 industries**, of which media and entertainment, Internet, commerce **, software services and diversified finance occupied the list of decliners.
In terms of *, **923 shares, **4368 shares, of which 66 rose by more than 15%, the money-losing effect "exploded", and the participation experience was extremely bad.
Northbound funds sold a net of 223.6 billion, of which 13.4 billion, Shenzhen Stock Connect net selling 210.2 billion.
Traceability perspective: Plate and**general fall, market sentiment freezing, week**5 consecutive yin (Shanghai Composite Index), over-falling** is about to start, and it is expected that next week's A-share or "violent**".
The chief economist of a certain bank ** believes:
Using equity risk premium ERP to measure the market's risk aversion, it is found that ERP fluctuates between plus or minus two standard deviations, and rarely deviates significantly. The current ERP of the Wind 300 (excluding financials) index is around minus two standard deviations, which is 26% away from minus one standard deviation. In general, it can be seen that the valuation of the whole market is relatively low now, and the market is relatively safe. The market outlook may have a "spring sprout" type of volatility to the upside.From the level of market transactions, Traceback believes that this conclusion is trustworthy because:
1. The trading volume has shrunk significantly, with an average daily turnover of only more than 700 billion, and the short-term short momentum has been vented.
Although the bears are powerless to ≠ and cannot accurately predict when. But from a medium-term perspective, the current odds and winning rates are undoubtedly quite cost-effective.
Speaking of human words is to enter or stick to the moment of entry, from the perspective of 1 year or above, probably only lose time, not lose account.
On the other hand, wind data statistics show that there are only 16 times that the turnover of wind is less than 700 billion this year, especially less than 6582 on December 19 (Tuesday).7.2 billion only 4 times, on January 18 and September 19 on September 21.
After the appearance of these land volumes, **A shares have appeared well**. Considering that the current market is at a low level of the year, the ** window may have been opened.
2. The net selling strength of northbound funds has weakened significantly, and the strategy has most likely shifted from unilateral exit to phased "position adjustment and stock swap", and the traces of layout in 2024 are more obvious.
After all, this week, the northbound funds only sold about 2.2 billion yuan, while before that, they were net sellers of tens of billions at every turn.
What's more, the Shanghai Stock Connect only sold a net of 13.4 billion, and the targets involved in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect are concentrated in the "Mao Index" and "Ning Portfolio", and this group happens to be a weighty market capitalization**.
In other words, at this point in time, we can reasonably expect that the "core assets" may have stabilized, and the ** is obviously easy to rise and difficult to fall.
3. Undertaking the second point, after the weight stabilizes the situation, if the market wants to rise, it needs to cooperate with the money-making effect plate (we call it the atmosphere group), and then the entire market can form a virtuous cycle of "weighting the stage and singing the theme concept".
This Thursday and Friday's trend, the direction of new energy is obviously "ready to move", especially the photovoltaic industry chain. Its logic is also not smooth, that is, the upstream raw materials return to rationality + the willingness of downstream installed capacity to increase + the demand for modules to increase + the industry dilemma reversal + high prosperity.
If there is no "black swan" event on Friday, the direction of artificial intelligence and digital economy will also be icing on the cake. As for Friday's "black swan" event, the source of the source believes that the market has overreacted.
More importantly, on Friday, the collective rapid and straight line, and the concentrated release of risks may make this direction usher in a restorative upward trend and resonate with the direction of new energy.
4. Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index has been in the red for 5 consecutive weeks in a week, which is the first time since it peaked at 3731 points in February 2021, and the weekly line has been in the negative line for 5 consecutive days after peaking at 3731 points.
Secondly, since the peak of 3731 points, in 145 trading weeks, after 3 consecutive negative and above in the week, the market will also rise and fall in the next trading week.
The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index are even more exaggerated, both ushering in the weekly **6 consecutive yin, and the monthly **5 consecutive yin, both of which belong to the limit of phased adjustment.
In terms of form, the Shanghai Stock Exchange currently has a triple bottom combination of 2863 points, 2882 points and 2885 points, which is still validOn the trend, Friday closed at 2914 points, and the long-term trend line (Q60**) is currently at 2911 points, and long-term support is effective.
As for indicator divergence, oversold and so on are visible to the naked eye.
In short, as far as the technical level is concerned, A-shares have all the technical conditions for over-falling, and there is only one trigger opportunity left, perhaps at this special point at the end of the year and the beginning of the year.
Comprehensive analysis: Maintain the recent view, the current medium-term dimension of the market belongs to repeated bottoming and grinding, short-term adjustment has reached the limit, and next week A shares may bottom out and rebound after the violence**.
The article is a collation and reflection of traceable investment ideas, and does not constitute investment advice, for reference only).