The main body of the strongest cold wave this winter is moving south, the largest snowfall in the north this winter ushered in the peak day today, starting tomorrow, most of the north will open the cold moment of this winter that lasts for about a week, and the south will also bid farewell to the high temperature, in just one or two days, it will encounter a cliff-like cooling.
Q: How cold will it be in the north this time?
Tomorrow, as the cold wave moves eastward to the south, and gradually forces the warm and humid airflow to retreat, the snowfall in the north will weaken significantly, and the snowfall area will move eastward, with heavy snow only in northeast Liaoning and eastern Jilin. Next, the real cooling test is about to begin!
In the next few days, the temperature in the north will be large-scale and continue to refresh new lows, of which from the night of the 16th to the morning of the 17th, the minimum temperature in some areas of North China and northern Huanghuai will be close to or fall below the extreme value of the same period in history, and the minimum temperature in Shanxi, Hebei, northern Henan, and northeastern and western Shanxi will reach about -20 °C.
Among the cities, the lowest temperature in Shijiazhuang on the 17th was -18, and Jinan was -15, which will set a new local record in mid-DecemberBeijing-15 will be the fourth lowest in mid-December, and Zhengzhou-12 will be the second coldest in mid-December. The temperature in the above areas is 6 or even more than 10 lower than that of the same period in normal years
Q: How bad will the temperature fall in the south?
We have been preparing for the imminent change in temperatures in the south for a few days, and today we are finally on the eve of the big change.
Today, the temperature in most parts of the south continues to rise, the temperature has reached a recent high, the highest temperature south of the Yangtze River generally exceeds 20 °C, and the highest temperature in many places in the south of the Yangtze River even reaches about 25 °C, and the degree of warmth and heat is rare in the same period!As of 14 o'clock today, a total of more than 100 stations in Shanghai, Guizhou, Hunan, Zhejiang and other places had the highest air warmth to break the extreme value of the same period.
Starting tomorrow, most of the south will experience a cliff-like cooling. A large area from Guizhou to Jiangnan will have the temperature drop by about 20 degrees Celsius in just two or three days, and this cold wave will put an end to the outrageous warmth in the south since the beginning of winter.
Among the big cities, the maximum temperature in Hangzhou and Nanjing will drop from 25°C to 2°C, and Guiyang will drop from 22°C to 0°C, staging a super reversal of cold and warm. Especially in Nanjing, the minimum temperature will drop to about -5 this Saturday, and Nanjing friends who have no heating will be very difficult!
After the 16th, the dry and cold air mass in most areas north of the Yangtze River was controlled, and the rain mode was switched, and the precipitation was concentrated in the area from Guizhou to Jiangnan, with light rain and snow as the main focus. Among them, there was freezing rain in Guizhou, western and southern Hunan on the 16th and 18th, and it was necessary to prevent freezing disasters.
For the southern region, this cooling is also accompanied by rain and snow weather, the feeling of dampness and cold is aggravated, and the body will feel cold and cold, especially the contrast with the warm and hot in the early stage is huge.
Q: I just said that this year may be the warmest winter in history, and this cold wave is here to "slap the face"?
After talking about forecasting, I finally got to the point of today. In the face of the prediction of the warm winter and the current situation of the cold wave cooling rain and snow, it seems quite contradictory, and several waves of netizens have come to ask
In fact, many netizens answered for Xiaogong, but since I promised everyone to publish a single article, I still take this opportunity to talk about it in detail.
Let's throw the conclusion first: the cold wave and the "warm winter" are not in conflict at all!
The "warmest winter in history" is a prediction of the average temperature of the entire region and the entire winter period of our country, and it does not mean that there will be no periodic cold air cold waves.
The average temperature, everyone should have learned elementary school mathematics, the general level of its statistics, take the middle value, will flatten the specificity of the data. In winter, the difference between sea and land heat creates a pressure difference between the continental cold high pressure and the ocean warm low pressure, and the cold air will not disappear suddenly, and the temperature will not remain unchanged, there will always be fluctuations. For example, since November, we have experienced several rounds of cold and warm reversals (such as a rare warming from late October to early November, and two more cold spells from November 6 to 7 and 23 to 25). Therefore, we cannot use the average trend of "warm winter" to deny the possibility of the specific process of a single cold air cold wave.
It's only early December, and the weather in January and February hasn't happened yet, so it's not appropriate to say that the cold wave "slaps the face" so early.
It is not enough to look at a single specific process, and it is not possible to use a single process to represent the state of the whole winter. Just like we can't completely deny the "warm winter" trend just because this cold wave may cause rare cold in North China, Huanghuai and other places in the same period, after all, winter has just begun.
Coming back to this cold wave, although it was a cold event, we also saw the strength of warmth.
The precipitation pattern in Henan is complex, which also reflects the strength of warmth.
The picture shows the ice particles photographed by Zhengzhou netizens today, **see watermark).
Today, Henan has a "hodgepodge" - ice particles, freezing rain, sleet, snow, thunder hitting snow, thundering ice particles, ......The reason why the precipitation phase is so complex is that it is at the junction of cold and warm forces, before the main body of the cold wave moves southward, the strong warm and humid airflow occupies this place first, bringing abundant water vapor at the same time, creating a warm zone with higher temperature in the middle of the air, forming a cold (high altitude)-warm and humid (hollow)-cold (near the ground) inversion layer, resulting in the gradual melting of snowflake ice crystals when they fall, resulting in complex precipitation phases.
The fact that the warm and humid air currents can reach such a northerly position at this time of year is actually evidence of its strength.
The rare warmth in the south during the same period is also a proof of warmth.
As mentioned above, as of 14 o'clock today, a total of more than 100 stations in Shanghai, Guizhou, Hunan, Zhejiang and other places have been warm enough to break the extreme value of the same period. Since the beginning of winter, the temperature in the south has been ridiculously warm, which should not be at this time. Looking at the temperature change this afternoon, the temperature south of the Yangtze River is also "crazy" ......
As we mentioned a few days ago, the anomalously northerly subtropical high system and the ridiculously strong warm and humid airflow are the driving forces behind this unusual warm event. Although the cold spell has put an end to the warming, the winter is still long, and it remains to be seen whether the warming will be repeated.
So friends, be sensible, don't think about "slapping your face" or something about the process once.