Stock price review: The theme of humanoid robots is obvious, and there are many event catalysts.
In 2023, driven by AI progress + policy catalysis + multi-party entry, the robot sector will rise by 25 as a whole82%。Taking the robot (wind) index as a reference, since the beginning of the year, the CSI 300 index** has declined, and the robot sector has fluctuated upward, with an overall increase of 25 in 202382%, significantly outperforming the market.
The performance vacuum period event catalyzes the overall **, and the performance period sector ** is obvious. In 2023, the stock price of the robot sector will rise and fall regularly, mainly showing the trend of catalyzing the performance period and non-performance period, of which the performance period is mainly due to the main business of the robot industry chain company in 2023 Affected by the general manufacturing boom, the demand is weak and the performance is under pressure, and the range adjustment in October (the third quarter of the reporting period) has reached -7 in March and April (the first quarter of the annual report period - August (the middle reporting period), and the adjustment of the range in October (the third quarter reporting period) has reached -736%、-7.79%，-3.94%。The performance vacuum period is subject to Tesla's announcement of the latest progress and policy of Optimus.
The introduction of catalytic trends is the most advanced. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to the industry's low-level layout investment opportunities during the performance period when the stock price is ** brought about by the unrecovered demand.
The catalysis of the humanoid robot sector mainly revolves around the mass production progress of Tesla's Optimus. Since May, each wave of the plate has basically been catalyzed by Tesla's events, generally Tesla's latest progress in humanoid robots or domestic manufacturers giving mass production guidelines and sample delivery progress.
Humanoid robots: In the 0-1 stage of the industry, the investment logic is biased towards event-catalyzed theme investment, and the core focuses on the mass production rhythm of the humanoid robot industry. In September 2022, with the release of Tesla's AIDAY prototype of its humanoid robot, the event in the humanoid robot sector catalyzed a significant stock price**, and then began in the fourth quarter**. Different from the pure theme investment in 2022, since 2023, the industry has accelerated with AI progress + policy catalysis + multi-party entry, humanoid robots have entered the real 0-1 node, and the mass production rhythm of leading enterprises has been concerned.
In November 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots", which pointed out that by 2025, 2-3 ecological enterprises with global influence will be cultivated, and humanoid robots will be mass-produced.
Combined with the rapid iteration of the technology and the continuous optimization of the performance of Tesla's humanoid robot many times, we expect that we have entered the key technology finalization stage on the eve of mass production of robots, and it is expected to enter the stage of small batch mass production in 2024. From the perspective of investment opportunities, we recommend focusing on two directions:
1. Robot upstream machining equipment (shovel seller): grinders, cutting tools, winding machines, etc. related to upstream machining equipment of core components are expected to benefit first. The investment logic is similar to Haitian Precision and Neway CNC, which have grown up under the catalysis of "horse racing and capacity expansion" in the new energy industry from 2021 to 2022. From the point of view of value and quantity, machine tool winding equipment, from the perspective of domestic substitution progress, winding equipment tool machine tool. Under the large-scale volume of humanoid robots, upstream production equipment is expected to benefit first. It is recommended to pay attention to: Lathe: Zhejiang Heideman;Grinding machine: Rifa Precision Machine, Huachen Equipment, Qinchuan Machine Tool;Knives: Wald;Winding equipment: Tanaka Seiki.
2. Long-term deterministic parts (indispensable hardware links): Motor: focus on the number and pattern of coreless motors for dexterous handsReducer: Harmonics for joints The progress of planetary reducers and miniature harmonics for hands;Screw: Pay attention to the sample delivery progress of domestic planetary roller screws and trapezoidal screws;Sensors: Pay attention to the progress of force sensors (six-dimensional torque sensors), IMU inertial navigation, and vision sensor solutions.
Investment suggestions: Combined with the development of the humanoid robot industry chain and market cognition, the current investment focus is
The industrial chain is stuck, grasp the manufacturers that are already Tesla's first-class chain and potential entrants, such as the original Tesla automobile first-chain enterprises, or the first-class merchants of tier1 Sanhua Tuopu, will be expected to bind leading customers, enjoy the opportunity of large-scale growth of the industry, and can tolerate short-term high valuation.
The main business is relatively stable, which does not significantly drag down the performance, and the robot business can bring greater flexibility.
The four major components focus on two directions:
1. Motor reducer: the main difference is whether it is good or bad and whether it can enter Tesla. At present, the localization rate of the two types of products is high, the technology has completed a breakthrough, the competition pattern is fierce, and the pattern will be differentiated, focusing on the two dimensions of customers and production capacity, that is, the progress of chain sample delivery and production capacity.
2. Sensor + planetary roller screw: the main difference is between having and not. Both types of products have high technical and technological barriers. The localization rate of planetary roller screws is extremely low, and product accuracy and yield are the key considerations. Although the six-dimensional torque sensor has made a good breakthrough in the field of aerospace and military industry, it has not yet formed a leading listed company in civilian scenarios.
To sum up, the above two directions, the current market perception and industrial progress stages are different:
The field of reducer and motor is optimistic about the leading company with the advantage of card position;
We believe that sensors and planetary roller screws are the key direction to focus on in 2024, and they are also the winners and losers of investment in the direction of humanoid robots. 
Focus on:
Ball screws: [Hengli Hydraulics], [Best], [Wuzhou New Year], [Beite Technology]. Sensors: [Donghua Test], [Keli Sensing]. Reducer: [Green Harmonic], [Double Ring Transmission]. Coreless motor: [Mingzhi Electric]. Frameless torque motor: [Buke shares], [Dechang shares]. Production equipment: [Huachen Equipment], [Zhejiang Heideman], [Rifa Precision Machinery], [Qinchuan Machine Tool], [Wald].
This is an abridged excerpt from the report, the original PDF of the report
Machinery and Equipment-2024 Humanoid Robot Special Strategy: Mass Production is Approaching, and the Future Is Not Far Away-SDIC**[Guo Qianqian, Zhao Mengni]-20240106[Page 39]".
Report**: Value Catalog