In the next 5 years, there will be 3 results in the property market, which is quite reliable.
In the next 5 years, there will be 3 results in the property market, which is quite reliable.
Housing supply and demand: Oversupply is excess, putting downward pressure on housing prices.
At present, both the new housing market and the second-hand housing market are oversupplied. As the demand for new and improved housing gradually decreases, the situation will further deteriorate and persist. Contrary to Professor Xu Gao's view, there will be no shortage of housing supply in the future, but a serious surplus. The area of commercial housing for sale in the country increased by 18 percent over the previous year1%, and the area of residential for sale increased by 197%。If the real estate development area can be further reduced, it will ease the pressure of destocking in the real estate market. In fact, there are many factors that determine the rise and fall of house prices in the future, not only depending on the scale of construction by the developer, but also on how active the real estate market as a whole is.
Resident income: Housing prices should be linked to resident income.
The current high housing prices have been decoupled from the income level of local residents and may return to a reasonable level. According to available information, in second- and third-tier cities, a family with an annual income of only 100,000 yuan will need at least 15 years to buy a house of more than 1.5 million yuan. In first-tier cities, a family with an annual income of only 150,000 yuan will need at least 40 years to buy a house of more than 6 million to 7 million yuan. Obviously, the trend of the property market is closely related to the income of local residents, and housing prices cannot exceed the purchasing power of residents.
Short-term policy impact: The real estate market continues to be affected by political regulation.
Policy will be a key factor in the short-term property market trend. Without the support of a number of favorable policies, the property market trend this year may be even more unoptimistic. Especially in the new housing market, if there is no limit on house prices**, the decline of new homes** everywhere may be greater than we imagined. Although favorable policies can alleviate the ups and downs of the property market in the short term, they cannot change the general trend of the property market in the future.
Summary. In short, China's real estate market is likely to present three outcomes over the next five years. First of all, the downward trend in house prices will not change. As domestic market house prices have lasted for more than 20 years, the real estate market needs time to adapt to house prices over the next five years"Steady and falling"More likely. Second, property developers will face a major makeover. Real estate companies such as Evergrande Real Estate and Country Garden have defaulted on their debts and renovated dilapidated houses. In the next few years, the entire real estate industry will reduce the debt ratio, and controlling the scale of investment will become an important trend. Finally, China will gradually get rid of its dependence on the real estate industry. In order to adjust the economic structure, China will increase the development of high-end manufacturing and high-tech industries, reduce dependence on the real estate industry, and promote sustainable economic development. At the same time, future housing reform will pay more attention to meeting the housing needs of families with different incomes, so that the rich can buy commercial housing, and low-income groups can also buy affordable housing.
In conclusion, there are three possibilities for the direction of China's real estate market in the next five years. First of all, housing prices will continue to maintain a steady and declining trend, as Professor Xu Gao said, rather than **. At present, the real estate market has been seriously oversupplied, and the demand for housing will continue to decline in the future, so the downward pressure on housing prices is very great. Secondly, real estate developers will face rectification, such as Evergrande Real Estate, Country Garden and other real estate companies that are in arrears and in disrepair, and the entire industry will begin to restructure and integrate. Finally, the state will gradually reduce its dependence on the real estate industry, develop high-end manufacturing and high-tech industries, promote sustainable economic development, and reform housing reform policies to meet the housing needs of families with different incomes. The direction of the real estate market will be affected by many factors such as supply and demand, residents' income and policies. The future of the real estate market is still uncertain, and we need to pay close attention to market changes and make informed investment decisions.