Recently, the two large-scale conflicts between Palestine and Israel and Russia and Ukraine have intensified, and both conflicts have a great possibility of spillover.
In the Asia-Pacific region, although there has not yet been a large-scale military conflict like that between Palestine and Israel or Russia and Ukraine, there are many conflicts in the brewing stage, the most dangerous of which isThe situation on the Korean Peninsula is most likely to erupt in the near future
South Korea and North Korea shelled each other from the air.
According to a report by South Korea, the South Korean side announced a message on the 5th, claiming that the North Korean army carried out artillery training on the area of Baeknyeong Island and Yeonpyeong Island on the same dayThe North Korean army fired more than 200 artillery shellsSince the shells fell into the buffer zone of the military demarcation line between the two Koreas, there was no property damage or personnel **.
In response, the South Korean ** team also carried out sea shooting training after the North Korean artillery training ended, and the Yanpyeong Island garrison also used self-propelled guns and main battle tanks for artillery training.
The mutual artillery bombardment between the two armies actually means that the situation on the peninsula has entered a rather dangerous situation.
According to the September 19 military agreement signed in 2018, the two countries are not allowed to conduct artillery bombardment and maritime maneuver training in the maritime buffer zone, which is intended to prevent the two militaries from misjudging and attacking each other due to artillery training.
But in November, North Korea unilaterally announced that it was scrapping the agreement and resuming artillery drills in the maritime buffer zone due to a sharp deterioration in relations between the two Koreas, while South Korea denounced the move as "a provocation that threatens peace on the peninsula and exacerbates tensions."
South Korea and North Korea shelled each other.
The ongoing aerial shelling of the peninsula will continue to unstabilize the peninsula, as evidenced by the 2010 shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, which sparked displeasure in North Korea by firing dozens of shells at disputed areas at sea during routine military exercises.
In retaliation, the DPRK also carried out reciprocal artillery drills, and carried out direct artillery bombardment at the artillery positions of the ROK army on Yeonpyeong Island, and the ROK army also returned fire laterMore than 10 people were killed and wounded in the artillery battle
Now, with the two sides no longer bound by the 9/19 inter-Korean military agreement, and the relationship between the two countries is at its most tense since 2018There is a high probability that the scene of the artillery battle on Yanping Island will be repeated again
If there is another artillery battle between the two sides, the result will inevitably be even more serious than the one in 2010.
North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong-un Source: North Korean media.
Not long ago, Kim Yo-jong, deputy minister of the North Korean Labor Commission, issued a statement criticizing South Korea's policy toward North Korea and bluntly said that 2024 is the year when conflict between South Korea and North Korea is most likely.
It can be seen that the relationship between the two sides has been tense. Under such circumstances, once a frictional incident such as an artillery battle occurs, it is extremely easy for the two sides to misjudge and think that this is a declaration of war on the other side, and a military conflict on the peninsula will be completely triggered.
From another point of view, this aerial shelling is actually a wake-up call for the current South Korean regime. South Korea has repeatedly accused North Korea of "deliberate provocations" in recent days, but in fact, the main responsibility for the current tensions on the peninsula, including the shelling, lies with South Korea.
Since Yoon Suk-yeol came to power last year, South Korea's foreign policy has begun to tilt toward the United States in an all-round way, in order to cater to the demands of the United StatesSince last year, the ROK has adopted the policy of "exchanging force for peace" in its policy toward the DPRK。Against this backdrop, joint military exercises between the ROK and the United States have become more frequent and targeted since last year.
American nuclear submarine visits the South Korean port of Busan.
North Korea, which felt threatened, also reacted immediately and expressed its displeasure by test-firing multiple ballistic missiles. However, South Korea, which has been "on the top", has not only not relented, but has become more and more excessive.
Not to mention, the South Korean military frequently holds military exercises near the military demarcation line between the two KoreasYoon Suk-yeol also reached the "Washington Declaration" with Biden during his visit to the United StatesIt aims to introduce U.S. strategic assets and nuclear ** to South Korea, from bringing South Korea under U.S. nuclear protection and countering the North Korean nuclear threat.
Less than a month after the Washington Declaration, the United States immediately sent a series of strategic ** to South Korea, including nuclear submarines, B52H bombers.
Not to be outdone, the DPRK has adhered to the "tough for tough" policy of joint deterrence and provocation by the United States and South Korea, and has continuously test-fired various types of missiles in the last few months at the end of last year.
South Korea's **Yoon Suk-yeol (left) visits the United States.
According to statistics, throughout 2023, North Korea will test 25 long-range ballistic missiles, including 5 intercontinental nuclear missiles. At the same time, the DPRK also successfully launched a military reconnaissance satellite last year, and its first attack nuclear submarine was successfully launched last year.
It can be said thatThe situation on the Korean Peninsula has developed to the point where it is today, and Yoon Suk-yeol**'s policy of "force for peace" must bear full responsibility
As for the aerial bombardment between the two armies, although the DPRK took the lead in carrying out the bombardment, it was the ROK that provoked the front.
In his 2024 New Year's address, Yoon Suk-yeol said that he would "block" the North Korean nuclear and missile threat from the source this year, and that he would also complete the construction of an extended nuclear deterrence mechanism between South Korea and the United States in the first half of the year.
The meaning of these words is very clear, that is, South Korea will continue to pursue the policy of "force for peace" this year, and will further strengthen its efforts to rely on US nuclear weapons to deal with North Korea's nuclear missiles.
South Korea-U.S. joint exercises.
Before the North Korean shelling, the South Korean military also intensively held various military exercises near the demarcation line between the two Koreas. On December 29 last year, South Korea and the United States launched a joint military exercise on New Year's Eve, which lasted until January 4.
The joint military exercise was not only located in Pocheon, Gyeonggi Province, which is close to the military demarcation line, but also dispatched most of the conventional weapons, which was equivalent to a rehearsal for attacking North Korea.
On New Year's Day, several divisions of the ROK Army also conducted large-scale firepower and mechanized marching exercises in Gyeonggi Province and Gangwon Province, near the military demarcation line.
On January 3, the ROK Navy dispatched destroyers, frigates, and missile boats to conduct naval gun firing and sea maneuver exercises in close proximity to the maritime buffer zone between the two countries.
This series of intensive military exercises can be said to be the most direct military provocation against the DPRK, which even the South Korean side does not hide.
North Korea launches a military reconnaissance satellite.
In response to these military exercises, the South Korean side said that in the new year, South Korea is facing a severe security situation, and this series of exercises is to ensure a decisive battle at any time and strengthen the determination to respond to enemy provocations.
It was after this series of provocative military exercises that North Korea finally chose to respond by shelling the buffer waters. This aerial shelling has also been demonstratedIt is impossible for South Korea to adopt a posture of maximum pressure to force North Korea to comply on the nuclear issue.
North Korea will not "hit the bottom" because of South Korea's repeated toughness, but will only take a step forward on South Korea's basis and take tougher measures to deal with it.
Although South Korea is trying to obtain nuclear protection by introducing U.S. strategic assets, this move will only give North Korea a legitimate reason to increase its nuclear development, and the security situation in South Korea will not improve in any way, but will continue to deteriorate.
If Yoon Suk-yeol continues to implement the policy of "force for peace" this year, the situation on the Korean Peninsula will inevitably end in a military conflict, as the North Korean side said.
China and the DPRK have a deep revolutionary friendship.
Countries outside the peninsula are also paying close attention to the situation on the Korean Peninsula, which is currently becoming more and more intense. On the day of the air bombardment by the DPRK and the ROK armies, China issued an urgent statement, hoping that all parties would remain calm and restrained, refrain from taking actions that would aggravate tensions, and avoid further escalation of the situation.
For China, North Korea is its close neighbor, and the instability of the peninsula means that China's border areas also face security challenges. As a result, China is the country that is most reluctant to see a military conflict erupt on the peninsula, and since last year, China has been acting as a mediator to ease and stabilize relations between the two Koreas and prevent a military conflict from erupting between the two sides.
However, Yoon Suk-yeol not only did not accept China's good intentions, but began to point fingers at China's internal affairs in order to cater to the needs of the United States to contain China. After last year's G7 summit, Yoon Suk-yeol said that the Taiwan issue should be a "global issue" like the North Korean issue. Having said that, it is obviously unrealistic to continue to mediate the contradictions and conflicts between the DPRK and the ROK.
In the future, China will certainly continue to monitor the situation on the peninsula and try its best to stabilize tensions, but if the United States and South Korea are trying to solve the problem by military means, then China will certainly not sit idly by. Just as it did 73 years ago, after the DPRK was directly attacked militarily, China will also shoulder the heavy responsibility of maintaining peace on the peninsula and striking at any country that dares to undermine peace on the peninsula.