2023 is over, and it has been an unsatisfactory year for most shareholders and institutions.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 114 points, or 3., for the year7% may not seem like much, but the CSI 300 Index fell 440 points, or 11%, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 309 points, or nearly 12%, the STAR 50 Index fell 11%, and the STAR 100 Index fell 125%, and the GEM index was **455 points, down more than 19%.
In terms of sector index declines, new energy**36%, commerce**31%, real estate**26%, liquor**15%, and pharmaceutical index**12%.
The adjustment in 2023 is mainly the structural adjustment of those sectors that were hyped from 2019 to 2021, such as white horse stocks, new energy and consumer stocks.
Judging by the above data, 2023 is undoubtedly gray. However, it is not without its bright spots.
The CNI 2000 Index, which represents small-cap stocks, is only **1%, while the BSE 50 Index is up nearly 15%.
In terms of sector index gains, communications 26%, media 17%, chips 15%, computers 9%, electronics 7%, and energy 4%.
In other words, it is mainly the technology category that will carry out structural *** in 2023
In January 2023, I said on January 30 in the article "All Markets Are at the Critical Point of Change": For the ** in 2023, I think it will definitely be better than 2022, the risk is lower than last year, but it is not so good that the big bull market is coming. To be precise, 2023 is a transitional year, and there will still be significant fluctuations.
On August 2, 2023, at the high point of the second half of the year, the trend of the second half of the year was reported in the form of a short article: in the next half a year to a year, the Shanghai Composite Index will be around 3000 points up and down 150-200 points, there will be several small bands, and the high point of each wave will decrease in turn. From the fourth quarter of this year to the beginning of next year, it will test below 3,000 points again, and the bottom is roughly in the 2,800-2,900 point area.
On January 28, the highs and lows of 2023 were 3,377 and 2,840 in the form of a sentence, respectively, and the actual ones were 3,418 and 2,882.
At present, the two *** in January and August are basically consistent with the actual trend, and the points are basically accurate, with only a few dozen points of error.
From the fourth quarter of last year to January this year, I have published several articles analyzing the major opportunities in the artificial intelligence sector, and everyone has seen the big bull market of artificial intelligence after the Spring Festival this year.
Overall, 2023 is true about **and plates**.
2023 is a year of transition, a year to end the three-year bear market correction once and for all.
2024 will be a year of a new bull market that lasts about two years.
In 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index will definitely break through the volatility range of 2022 and 2023, of course, to the upside, and 3400 and 3500 points will be successfully crossed.
Of course, you can't be blindly optimistic about the first half of 2024, especially once you can't keep raising your target after a few months, and you can't be hot-headed.
The first half of 2024 is the beginning of a bull market, and volatility is still inevitable.
According to my research and analysis, it is impossible to go all the way up, and there will be some in the first half of 2024, mainly in the second quarter. This may be the last slightly larger **. The specific points at the beginning are 3,700 points for the Shanghai Composite Index and 4,350 points for the CSI 300 Index. There may be a drop of a little more than 10% at that time, i.e. to the 3200 to 3300 point area. Of course, this point is only preliminary**, and the actual trend shall prevail.
After the adjustment in the second quarter, a stronger ** will appear after the third quarter of 2024, when investors will generally feel the coming of the bull market.
The Science and Technology Innovation Board will lead the entire market, and the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index will rise by 1,300 points and 1,500 points in the first half of next year.
The Hong Kong ** market will enter a bull market in tandem with A-shares, and there will be a fairly strong ** in 2024. The Hang Seng Index will reach 23,000 and 25,000 points respectively.
The correction of all major sectors has completely ended in 2023, whether it is liquor stocks, white horse stocks, blue chips or new energy**, all of which have experienced a long bear market correction that has lasted for nearly three years. They have collectively seen a phased bottom at the end of this year, and in 2024 they will enter a large-scale** stage that will last one to two years.
These sectors will continue to be ** in 2023 and will be abandoned by institutions and stockholders, but they will be reversed in 2024, and they will all have good ** opportunities.
However, these are obviously outdated industries, most of which belong to traditional industries, and 2019 to 2021 is their last bull market. After 2024, they will only have a decent ***, but they will certainly not enter a bull market again.
As for the new energy sector, this industry is indeed an emerging industry, and the prospects are good. However, the industry prosperity does not mean that the company is worth being optimistic about, and it does not mean that the relevant ** is also worth being optimistic about.
The new energy industry, not only new energy vehicles, but also photovoltaic wind power and other new energy as a whole, have entered the stage of fierce competition in the industry, and at the same time, there is overcapacity in various subdivisions. It is unrealistic to expect the new energy sector to repeat the big bull market before last year.
Taking lithium batteries as an example, it is a foregone conclusion that upstream lithium carbonate *** will lead to a decline in the performance of related companies in 2024;The price reduction will be transmitted to the more competitive middle and lower reaches, and the profits of lithium battery production companies will also bid farewell to high growth;As for the new energy vehicle, it is a highly competitive industry, and a large number of existing related companies may be eliminated in a few years.
Therefore, as far as the new energy sector is concerned, due to the huge decline in the past two years, there will be a strong *** in 2024, but it is only a return to the light
Corresponding to the above-mentioned white horse stocks, consumer stocks, and new energy*** are expected to temporarily pick up in 2024, some sectors that will be hyped in 2023 may perform poorly in 2024, such as dragon characters**, games, film and television, and cultural media.
*Investment should not only look at the fundamentals, but also pay attention to the fact that this is a gambling market. This market characteristic determines that it is difficult for any sector to sustain if the heat is too high. And, historically, some plates that have been hyped up the previous year are the exact opposite the next year, and will be discarded.
Of course, the hot spots in 2023 that will cool down in 2024 are mainly those sectors that are hyped up by conceptual themes. It's a different story for tech stocks, which have also been hyped in 2023.
It is necessary to deeply understand the policy orientation of the state to attach great importance to scientific and technological innovation and the development of new quality productive forces, to keep pace with the times, and to grasp the main theme of the times that scientific and technological innovation leads economic development.
Technology stocks, especially mainstream technology stocks, are the core theme in the medium and long term, and they are different from the conceptual hype that can continue the bull market in 2024.
Take the artificial intelligence sector as an example, as the core of the core, the sector bull market will last for at least two to two and a half years, far from the end.
The bull market in the new energy sector, especially lithium stocks, actually began in the second half of 2015 and lasted for nearly seven years, experiencing two major hypes. As an artificial intelligence bull market that is more important and influential than new energy than lithium mines, it is far from the end, or even just the beginning.
Moreover, at present, the artificial intelligence sector, whether it is the index or most of the **, has returned to a low or relatively low level in the fourth quarter after the adjustment since the middle of the year, and some ** have even fallen back to the starting point, which is undoubtedly an excellent time to pay attention to in the fourth quarter.
Again, stay away from speculation and look for opportunities from the bottom. As far as tech stocks are concerned, the vast majority of tech stocks are still at the bottom or even the absolute bottom.
The bottom, the unpopular, the small and medium-sized cap, and the industry are promising, and these four points are the necessary elements for the birth of the first place.
Looking forward to 2024, it is undoubtedly the best year for the best opportunities in many years, and it is the beginning of a new round of bull market.