Beginning in 1988, India began to station troops in the Maldives, which stemmed from the coup d'état at that time, and India stepped in to help the Maldives and help stabilize the situation. Since then, the Indian garrison in the Maldives has grown in strength. However, during the former Saleh administration, the Maldives has become closer to India, and India has further strengthened its presence in the Maldives through military assistance and facility construction. Especially in 2023, against the backdrop of the volatile global security situation, India has further strengthened its military ties with the Maldives by providing it with a fast patrol ship and an assault landing craft. This has created fears and unease among the Maldivian population about India's military presence, which is one of the reasons why Mouiz was elected.
The discontent of the Maldivian population stems from the increase in the number of Indian troops, which has led to a surge of nationalist sentiment. During this year's campaign, Muiz made an important commitment to drive out Indian troops in the Maldives, arguing that it would undermine the sovereignty of the Maldives. This is one of the reasons why India agreed to withdraw its troops.
However, India's withdrawal has not been smooth sailing for the Maldives. First, India's investment in the Maldives is huge, especially in this year's Greater Malé Connectivity, which India invested $500 million and provided direct grants of $100 million. This makes India hope to be able to reap the rewards that the withdrawal will inevitably bring with it losses and uncertainties.
Second, India has always focused on the "Greater India" strategy, and the Maldives is an important breakthrough point. India's inclusion of the Maldives in its sphere of influence has helped strengthen its regional status and influence. Therefore, India's withdrawal of troops will not be an easy task for the Maldives and will be extremely difficult.
In recent years, exchanges and cooperation between the Maldives and China have been increasing, especially in the Belt and Road Initiative. The Maldives is beginning to pay more attention to its relations with China, which has raised concerns in India. However, the Maldives' cooperation with China is completely different from what India has said.
India has been influencing the development of the Maldives through its military presence and interference in its internal affairs. On the basis of mutual benefit, China has provided economic assistance and technical support to the Maldives. China's cooperation with the Maldives is based on equality and mutual benefit, and has no interest in the internal affairs of the Maldives. This has made the Maldives more inclined to cooperate with China.
Despite the close ties between the Maldives and China, this does not mean that there is a competitive relationship with India. In fact, China's aid and cooperation with the Maldives is what the Maldives needs, rather than trying to make it dependent on India's military power, as India has done. The Maldives**'s exchanges and cooperation with China have been supported by the people, while the "China threat" hyped up by India has not been confirmed.
Whether India will withdraw its troops from the Maldives has not yet been answered definitively. Despite the hope expressed by the Maldives, India did not respond. If India continues to remain silent, the Maldives may find a reason to "get started", but in the face of a powerful Indian army, the Maldives faces a difficult and complicated situation.
The first issue that India's withdrawal is likely to bring to the Maldives is the negotiation of reparations and other topics. The scale of India's investment in the Maldives is huge, and a withdrawal would result in investment losses and economic variables. Mouiz** will face both military and financial pressures.
In addition, India's strategic objectives have made it more difficult to withdraw its troops. The "Greater India" strategy pursued by India is aimed at bringing neighboring countries into its sphere of influence, with the Maldives being one of its breakthroughs. Therefore, the feasibility of India's withdrawal is not high.
In summary, the impact and subsequent development of India's withdrawal from the Maldives will depend on the consultations and efforts of both sides. The Maldives' choice of China is based on a mutually beneficial partnership, while India's strategic concerns and interests need to be considered. In any case, the Maldives will face a difficult and complicated process.