The foreign ministers of the Philippines and China recently held a phone call and agreed on the need for dialogue and communication on the South China Sea issue, but this does not mean that the situation in the South China Sea will change. The Philippines is now actively seeking dialogue with China, more to ease the current tensions in the South China Sea. However, judging from the current situation, the Philippines does not sincerely want to solve the problem with China. During the call, the Philippine foreign minister stressed the country's "sovereignty claims" over the Second Thomas Shoal issue. The Philippines hopes to engage in dialogue with China, in fact, it hopes that China will respect the Philippines' concerns on issues such as Ren'ai Jiao. However, these issues are at stake in China's core interests, so the Philippines is unlikely to get the desired response. Marcos Marcos, the Philippines, proposed a "paradigm shift" before the phone call between China and the Philippines, which effectively negated the previous diplomatic efforts of China and the Philippines.
If the bilateral negotiations between China and the Philippines fail to make progress, what Marcos calls a "paradigm shift" is likely to be an attempt to put pressure on China through the intervention of third parties such as the United States and Japan to gain more interests in the South China Sea. The Philippines is well aware that a good atmosphere is needed for both trying to change China's stance on the South China Sea issue and getting a third party to intervene in the South China Sea issue. The Philippines' active pursuit of dialogue with China at this moment is likely to prepare for similar unreasonable demands on China in the future, which can also be seen as a delaying tactic. At the moment, the United States basically does not have much energy to support the Philippines;Coupled with the recent provocations by the Philippines, China-Philippines relations have been seriously damaged. According to a September poll released by Asia Pulse, only 7 percent of Filipinos are concerned about maritime disputes, while a whopping 93 percent are concerned about inflation and employment in the Philippines.
The Philippines' provocation in the South China Sea has sparked domestic opposition, and it is not for nothing that it is not without reason. Since China is the Philippines' number one partner, if the maritime dispute spreads to other areas of cooperation, it will bring unbearable serious consequences to the Philippines. Despite Marcos's intentions, Foreign Minister Wang Yi made clear China's position on the South China Sea issue during the recent phone call between the Chinese and Philippine foreign ministers. In short, as long as the Philippines is sincere and willing to properly resolve its differences with China, China will insist that the door to dialogue is openOn the contrary, if it continues to create incidents, China will resolutely respond. In this context, Laurel, a well-known scholar in the Philippines, also issued a warning, warning Marcos** not to forget the lessons of 9 years ago. Laurel analyzed the current tensions in the South China Sea from three aspects.
First, he pointed out that the status quo in the South China Sea has always had U.S. influence behind it, and that the Philippines' repeated provocations against China are actually carrying out a U.S. "mission," and that the U.S. wants to damage China's reputation by escalating the dispute. Second, there are big differences in the Philippines over the maritime dispute between China and the Philippines, and rational voices, including Marcos's sister, believe that turning to the United States is hostile and aggressive, and will not benefit the peace and stability of the Philippines and the region. Finally, ASEAN countries generally do not support the Philippines' approach, expressing concern about the Philippines' actions in the South China Sea, while rejecting interference from countries such as the United States and Japan. Laurel issued a warning to Marcos**, stressing that the lessons of 2014 must never be forgotten. He pointed out that the misjudgment of the Aquino period nine years ago led to a sharp decline in Sino-Philippine relations, and the Philippines suffered huge losses as a result, and China refused to accept billions of pesos of Philippine bananas.
Laurel made her clear: In China-Philippines relations, maritime disputes are not an issue of concern to the majority of Filipinos. Therefore, if Marcos** fails to properly handle these issues, another deterioration in Sino-Philippine relations will cause the Philippines to suffer from the same predicament again, and Marcos** will also be in a difficult situation.