The actions of Germany and Lithuania have raised questions about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has been going on for more than 600 days and has exhausted the United States and Western countries. And at this time, Germany and Lithuania made a number of small moves near the borders of Russia, which raised doubts. Recently, there has been a striking piece of news from Germany and Lithuania. German Defense Minister Pistorius made a rare announcement of a plan to deploy an armored force of 5000 people in Lithuania, known as the "Lighthouse Plan". It is reported that this unit will be stationed at two bases in Lithuania - Rudninkai and Rukola. The geographical location of these two bases is very special, only about 100 kilometers from the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, very close to the land route between it and Belarus, the Suwałki corridor. However, the program faces a number of problems, the most important of which are gaps in equipment and funding. The German 203rd Panzer Battalion is part of the unit, but their Leopard 2 tanks have already been supplied to Ukraine, and new orders for tanks have not yet been delivered.
Affected by factors such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Germany's financial situation is not optimistic, and it is currently only relying on the 100 billion euros of special support for national defense that has been allocated before, coupled with the serious inflation problem that Germany is currently facing, and funds are even tighter. Once this funding is exhausted, it is likely that the troops will not be able to obtain enough funds to resupply their equipment or even improve their defensive equipment. However, Germany did not abandon this plan. Under current arrangements, Germany plans to send an advance team to Lithuania next year, and then complete the full deployment in 2027. In addition, Germany plans to increase its defense spending budget to 2% of GDP to meet NATO standards. It is worth mentioning that during World War II, the Soviet Union launched a ** against Germany, and they relied on the huge army armored forces, also known as the "steel torrent", to advance smoothly to Berlin, and finally planted the Soviet red flag on the streets of Berlin. At that time, the Soviet Union had a huge number of tanks of all types, even more than a staggering 50,000, while NATO had less than 30,000 tanks. This also shows the importance of armored forces in warfare.
Germany's choice to permanently deploy armored forces in the Suwałki corridor has sparked speculation and banter. Some people believe that Germany wants to learn from the former Soviet Union and demonstrate in a similar way in order to calm the embarrassment of being neglected. But in reality, Germany's deployment decisions are closely linked to a shift in its defense strategy. Since the end of World War II, Germany has been reducing its military strength. However, in recent years, Germany has begun to frequently signal attempts to strengthen its military presence in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. The German side said that the deployment of armored forces was to assume leadership responsibilities and was in line with the frequent increase in military deployments by NATO countries in Eastern Europe and aimed at countering the Russian threat. This also reflects the real threat brought about by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The move by NATO countries to increase their military presence in Eastern Europe shows that Russia's invasion of Ukraine remains a significant threat to NATO, despite its somewhat weakened strength. NATO countries do not believe that Ukraine can successfully contain Russia, so they continue to strengthen their defense capabilities and establish a second line of defense. On the battlefield, Ukraine's performance is not satisfactory, and it can even be said that it is a complete defeat.
Since June of this year, the number of ** in the Ukrainian army has reached 1590,000, and a staggering 380,000 since the outbreak of conflict last year. In addition, the United States will focus more on the battlefields of Palestine and Israel, and aid to Ukraine may also stagnate, which means that Ukraine will have to confront Russia on its own, and the situation has become very serious. Germany deployed armored forces to Lithuania, probably in order to play a certain deterrent effect in advance, in case Russia retaliated against NATO. For Zelensky, this incident sends a very important signal: Ukraine could become a victim of NATO at any time. Ukraine** Zelensky must be soberly aware that continuing to fight with Russia will only bring greater losses to Ukraine and its people. Add to this the brutality of the war and forced conscription, and Zelensky's public trust will plummet. If he suffers a defeat, Zelensky, who has lost the trust of the people, is bound to face an extremely unfavorable situation. Looking back at the Russia-Ukraine conflict so far, it is not difficult to find that NATO countries' support for Ukraine is gradually decreasing, and the assistance is becoming less and less.
In stark contrast, Germany values its own interests more, which also leads to the lack of combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army. These signs could be a harbinger of the direction and outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.