From December 11th to 12th, the Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing, and the General Secretary delivered an important speech. This year is the first year for the full implementation of the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and a year for economic recovery after the three-year transition of new crown epidemic prevention and control. This year, in the face of multiple difficulties and challenges, China's macro-control policy "combined punch" has been effective, the economy has continued to rebound, high-quality development has been solidly promoted, and hard-won achievements have been achieved. So, what is the economic situation we are facing in 2024?In what areas should we exert our efforts in economic work next year?
* The Economic Work Conference comprehensively summarizes the economic work in 2023, deeply analyzes the current economic situation, and systematically deploys the economic work in 2024. 2023 is the first year for the full implementation of the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and the year for economic recovery after the three-year transition of new crown epidemic prevention and control. Since the beginning of this year, China's development has faced a complex situation, with an increase in unfavorable factors in the international political and economic environment, and a superposition of domestic cyclical and structural contradictions. In the face of multiple challenges, China's economy withstood the pressure and rebounded, with GDP growing by 5% year-on-year in the first three quarters2%, which is among the best among major international economies. At the same time, the endogenous driving force of economic development has been continuously strengthened, and high-quality development has been steadily promoted.
Guo Liyan, Director of the Situation Office of the Decision-making and Consulting Department of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute: This meeting is an important meeting held at a critical time. 2024 is a critical year for us to achieve the goals and tasks of the entire "14th Five-Year Plan", and this work conference systematically arranges relevant economic work. At the same time, the meeting reviewed the work in 2023, and the achievements we have made in continuously enhancing the support of domestic demand and enhancing the vitality and momentum of economic development through deepening reform are not easy. This meeting will help us further improve our expectations, boost confidence, build consensus, and do a better job in next year's work.
While fully affirming the achievements in 2023, we should also be soberly aware that there are still some difficulties and challenges that need to be overcome to further promote the economic recovery, such as insufficient effective demand, blockages in the domestic cycle, and rising complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment. However, at the same time, the meeting also stressed that the favorable conditions facing China's development are stronger than the unfavorable factors, and called on everyone to enhance confidence and confidence.
Guo Liyan, Director of the Situation Office of the Decision-making and Consulting Department of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute: At present, there are some pressures and risks both internally and externally, but these difficulties are temporary and structural, and we still have to look to the future.
Being good at summing up and understanding laws is our party's fine tradition. While summarizing the achievements in 2023 and analyzing the current economic situation, the meeting also put forward a general understanding of the laws of doing a good job in economic work in the new era, including the "five musts" such as the need to adhere to high-quality development as the last word in the new era, the deepening of supply-side structural reform and the expansion of effective demand, the need to rely on reform and opening up to enhance the endogenous driving force of development, the need to adhere to high-quality development and high-level security and benign interaction, and the need to promote Chinese-style modernization as the biggest political "five musts".
Dong Yu, Executive Vice President of the China Development Planning Research Institute of Tsinghua University: Since 2017, every year's economic work conference will summarize and refine some of the experience in economic development this year, which is the part of the understanding of the law. These five regular understandings are not only a retrospective summary of this year's work, but also used to guide the development of a longer period of time. Since it is called the understanding of laws, it can be elevated to an important experience in macroeconomic management and can be embodied in future economic work.
Comprehensively promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through Chinese-style modernization is the central task of the Communist Party of China in the new era and new journey. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to take the promotion of Chinese-style modernization as the biggest politics, unite the broadest masses of the people under the unified leadership of the party, focus on the central task of economic construction and the primary task of high-quality development, and turn the grand blueprint of Chinese-style modernization into a beautiful reality step by step.
Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Development Planning Institute of Tsinghua University: To promote Chinese-style modernization as the biggest politics, in fact, we are required to further understand the central position of economic construction in the overall situation, and to refine the task of Chinese-style modernization into the requirements and deployment of the party and various tasks, so that all departments and regions can focus on a series of goals and tasks defined by Chinese-style modernization, do some additions, and make some specific deployments. implementation, so as to drive the improvement of the entire market expectation through our effective actions. It can be said that such a regular understanding has grasped a key point in the current overall work.
2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China and a crucial year for the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Doing a good job in next year's economic work is of great significance to promoting the overall development of the cause of the party and the state. The meeting demanded that next year, we should persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promote stability with progress, and establish first and then break down. Compared with the "stability first, stability and progress" put forward by last year's ** economic work conference, what kind of policy signal is released by the new formulation of "promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking"?
Guo Liyan, director of the Situation Office of the Decision-making and Consulting Department of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute: "Stability" and "progress" are a pair of dialectical relations, and this time the emphasis on promoting stability through progress is to particularly emphasize that in the direction of "progress" we must intensify our efforts to build up momentum and plan, and "progress" is embodied in the upgrading of the structure and the quality of development, and the "progress" in key reforms to create a series of conditions for better realization of "stability".
Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Development Planning Research Institute of Tsinghua University: It is proposed to promote stability through progress, echoing it with the overall high-quality development and high-level security in the guiding ideology, and we can see that a new concept of stability has been put forward in economic work.
The meeting pointed out that we will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. The proactive fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, improve quality and efficiency, and the prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective. Guide financial institutions to increase support for scientific and technological innovation, green transformation, inclusive small and micro enterprises, and digital economy. He also emphasized the need to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of various policies, and ensure that the same direction is used to form a joint force.
Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Development Planning Research Institute of Tsinghua University: The statement that next year's fiscal policy will be moderately strengthened, and this statement is based on the fact that we have already introduced some fiscal policies, and we must observe its effectiveness and promote its implementation, and at the same time, we must observe the changes in the economic environment and situation. In this process, fiscal policy can follow up in a timely manner when necessary. At the same time, we are not engaged in flood irrigation, but have identified the areas that need to be targeted and make the fiscal and monetary policies achieve the greatest results through appropriate intensity and appropriate direction.
How to do economic work in 2024?Starting from the overall strategic situation, the meeting grasped the key issues affecting the high-quality development of China's economy, and deployed nine key tasks, the first of which is to lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, and improve the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain.
Guo Liyan, Director of the Situation Office of the Decision-making and Consulting Department of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute: "The direction of "progress" and the focus of "establishment" are in the direction of scientific and technological innovation and the construction of a modern industrial system, especially to accelerate the formation of new quality productivity, involving new kinetic energy on the new track, to further activate its vitality and the driving capacity of the domestic industrial chain and the influence and voice of the global market.
Dong Yu, Executive Vice President of the China Development Planning Research Institute of Tsinghua University: The construction of a modern industrial system should be made on the supply side, and how should we build a modern industrial system and rely on it?First of all, we must rely on the guidance of new quality productivity, and we must open up some new tracks and achieve some disruptive innovations in some fields. At the same time, there is a very important deployment in the construction of a modern industrial system, which is to build more pillar industries. In next year's economic work, we should concretely find some points that can be broken through, support them through effective policies, and cultivate some new industries as soon as possible.
Focusing on the demand side, the meeting proposed that efforts should be made to expand domestic demand. At present, insufficient aggregate demand has always been a prominent contradiction facing China's economic operation, among which domestic demand is the basic driving force of China's economic development, and it is also an inevitable requirement to meet the people's growing needs for a better life. The meeting stressed: It is necessary to stimulate potential consumption, expand profitable investment, and form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other.
Guo Liyan, Director of the Situation Office of the Decision-making and Consulting Department of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute: The demand for a better life of residents' families is constantly escalating, and it is necessary to stimulate new momentum through investment and increase new and higher-quality supply to match consumption upgrading. On the other hand, in the process of accelerating the formation of physical quantities, investment will also increase the consumption of goods and services, thereby driving jobs and income, and also enhancing consumption capacity, thus forming a virtuous circle and enhancing the support of domestic demand for the recovery of the entire economy.
High-quality development needs to be driven by reform and vitality by opening up. Focusing on deepening the reform of key areas and expanding high-level opening up, the meeting also made further arrangements, proposing to continuously improve and implement the "two unswerving" systems and mechanisms, accelerate the construction of a unified national market, relax market access for telecommunications, medical and other service industries, and effectively break through the blockages for foreign personnel to do business, study, Xi and tourism in China.
Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Development Planning Research Institute of Tsinghua University: This economic work conference has new arrangements for reform and opening up, if you look at these two together, it happens to be closely combined with one of the "five musts" law understanding, that is to say, we must cultivate more endogenous power for China's economy through deepening reform and opening up. This year, our series of arrangements in reform have been combined with the reforms in the past few years on unifying the large market and on the market-oriented allocation of factors, and they are also combined with a series of measures to better implement and support the private economy and better improve the business environment.
Guo Liyan, Director of the Situation Office of the Decision-making and Consulting Department of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute: We have started a new round of reform in key areas such as business entities, finance, taxation and finance, which can play a role in the reform and demonstration effect of the whole body, which will lead to the further efficient and smooth circulation of the entire national economy. At the same time, we should also improve the quality and level of international circulation, and enhance the new momentum of foreign trade, so that the internal and external circulation can form a benign and smooth state of mutual stimulation.
In addition, the meeting also made arrangements for the continuous and effective prevention and resolution of risks in key areas, unremitting efforts to do a good job in the "three rural" work, promoting urban-rural integration, regional coordinated development, in-depth promotion of ecological civilization construction and green and low-carbon development, and effectively protecting and improving people's livelihood. The relationship between development and security has been continuously consolidated and strengthened for the positive trend of economic recovery.
Guo Liyan, Director of the Situation Office of the Decision-making and Consulting Department of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute: Looking forward to next year, the objective pressure and challenges are not small, and the key is to make efforts from both the supply and demand sides. On the one hand, it will enhance the momentum of "entering" new tracks and new kinetic energy, and on the other hand, it will further stimulate the potential of domestic demand. In this regard, we must build consensus, unite as one, overcome difficulties, and implement the various measures that have been introduced in detail, especially to enhance the sense of acquisition and satisfaction of micro subjects with policies, so that macroeconomic operation and micro feelings can converge, further boost confidence, stabilize social expectations, and consolidate the upward momentum of the economy.
The major policy of economic work in 2024 has been decided, and one point of deployment and nine points of implementation. At present, China is in a critical period of economic recovery and industrial transformation and upgrading, and the most important thing in the next step is to implement the high-quality decision-making and deployment in place under the strong leadership of the first comrade as the core, strengthen confidence, forge ahead, and strive to achieve the goals and tasks of economic and social development.