At this year's Reagan Defense Forum in the United States, China once again became the focus of attention. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo made a striking remark at the forum:"China is not our friend, but the biggest threat we face. "These words have aroused great concern and discussion. Soon after,PentagonIt also increased the hype"Conflict between China and the United States"dynamics. Charles Brown, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, even said that the United States has done so"Conflict with China will break out in the next five years"Ready, he also appealed to the American people toU.S. militaryBe proud. It can be said that Brown made such a fiery remark shortly after taking office, which is undoubtedly a provocation to China. However, we need to look at these statements in a dialectical manner. First, Russia's warning may have a hint of adding fuel to the fire. The possibility of an escalation of the conflict between China and the United States does exist, but the United States has taken it in stride, directly involved"Taiwan Missile Crisis"The statement is still somewhat exaggerated and alarmist. On the other hand, we also need to pay attention to Kissinger's death and Milley's retirement, which are the relationship between China and the United States"Stabilizers"of doers are withdrawing from the political scene, while politicians who rely on inciting populism or engaging in shoddy political tactics to rise to power. If anti-Chinese sentiment in the United States spirals out of control, Russia's warnings may not be groundless. There are worries, but it remains to be seen whether the worries will become realityInternational Politicsdevelopment trend.
Russia** has sounded a wake-up call to the friction between China and the United States, fearing that the United States may take risky actions, such as deploying in TaiwanMedium-range missiles。However, we also need to take a dialectical approach to such reporting. First of all, Russia's attitude of not thinking too much of a big deal may have a place in it. Although there is a possibility of a misfire between China and the United States, the United States has made bold arrangements all of a suddenMedium-range missiles, like playing a play"Taiwan Missile Crisis"That's still an exaggeration. Second, facts such as Kissinger's death and Milley's retirement show that those can play a role in Sino-US relations"Stabilizers"The pragmatists of the role are gradually withdrawing from the political scene, while those who rely on demagogizing populism or toyinglgbtand other issues of inferior politicians are on the rise. If anti-Chinese sentiment in the United States spirals out of control, Russia's warnings are likely to be well-founded. Therefore, we need to be wary of such a possibility, but we should not exaggerate it either.
According to Japan's ** "Nikkei Asia", the news broke that,PentagonThe head of the army said that the United States plans to deploy a new batch in the Indo-Pacific region in 2024Medium-range missilesto deter China. Considering that this round of U.S. deployments is aimed at China, the so-called"Partners"Nature is preferred. And Taiwan Island has the potential to becomePentagonOne of the alternative lists. In fact, the United States plans to deploy in the Indo-Pacific regionMedium-range missilesIt's not a matter of a day or two. Back in 2019, the United States withdrew from ".INF TreatyAt the time, many people said that this was to prepare for China. In the middle of this year, the RAND think tank released a lengthy report analyzing five U.S. positions in the Indo-Pacific regionMilitaryThe possibility of allies (Australia, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea and Thailand) deploying medium-range missiles. Surprisingly, however, the report concludes that none of these five countries are suitable. The United States, Japan, and Thailand have close ties with China and are excluded. Although Australia listens to the United States, it is too far away from China, and the cost performance of deploying intermediate-range missiles is too low. The Philippines' political instability and China's influence in Southeast Asia make it difficult to fully implement U.S. plans. South Korea is facing a similar problem. In contrast, Japan is most likely to work withPentagoncountries cooperating on INF issues, but the opportunities are small. The RAND think tank is the United StatesPentagonIt is likely that the report was released to put pressure on Japan, hoping that Kishida would fully support the plan. The fact that the report was not mentioned at the time of the Nikkei Asia revelations clearly indicates that Japan has received a signal from the United States, but is unwilling to take over the hot potato.
Therefore, it is possible that the United States will be able to put the Russian ** as it is saidMedium-range missilesThrowing this hot potato to Taiwan is indeed a possibility that cannot be ignored. Considering the extent of US penetration on the island, as long asPentagonIt is very difficult for politicians on the island to refuse. However, if the United States does act in this way, it will basically be tantamount to declaring war on Chinese mainland. At present, the United States has fallen into the quagmire of Ukraine, Palestine and other issues, and whether it can afford to directly tear its face with China, Biden must weigh it carefully.
To sum up, the relationship between China and the United States has always been in the spotlight, especially the recent U.S. remarks and actions against China have sparked widespread controversy. Commerce Secretary Raimondo called China the biggest threat, and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Brown declared that the United States was ready for conflict with China. Russia ** against the possible deployment of the United States in TaiwanMedium-range missilesIssue a warning. However, we need to think critically when analyzing these issues. Conflict between China and the United States is a potential one, but exaggerated rhetoric and hype are also suspected of being misleading. At the same time, given the turmoil in the domestic politics of the United States and the influence of forces such as Wall Street and the military industry, it is doubtful whether its decision-making will be sound. Against this background, it is still only speculation whether Taiwan will become the target of the US deployment of intermediate-range missiles, but this possibility cannot be completely ruled out. For China, it should remain vigilant about the tensions between China and the United States, especially the recent remarks made by the US Secretary of Commerce and the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. Their statements all pointed to China as the biggest threat to the United States. And Russia** has also issued a warning about this, fearing that the United States may deploy missiles in Taiwan. However, we need to take a dialectical view of these issues. A conflict between China and the United States may exist, but the claim that the United States directly initiated the Taiwan missile crisis is somewhat exaggerated. In addition, we need to note that within the United States, some pragmatists are gradually withdrawing from the political scene, while some politicians rely on inciting populism to rise to power, which may exacerbate anti-Chinese sentiment. We should remain vigilant about the possibility of the United States deploying INF in the Indo-Pacific region mentioned in the report, but we should also note that this is just an intelligence revelation and cannot be exaggerated. Finally, at present, we can only speculate and no conclusion can be drawn as to whether Taiwan will become the target of the US deployment of intermediate-range missiles. China needs to remain vigilant, but it must not be overly concerned.