On December 16-17, the 2023 Snowball Carnival was held in Guangzhou. As the first offline carnival after 2020, the 2023 Snowball Carnival is full of ingenuity in the setting of the event, in order to give investors an excellent investment feast.
On the 16th, there was a very valuable interactive session in the main venue - "I ask the abbot". Participants can ask questions on the activity page of Xueqiu APP in advance, regardless of investment philosophy or life philosophy, they can ask questions to the "abbot", that is, Fang Sanwen, the founder and chairman of Xueqiu, and Fang Sanwen will answer questions at the carnival site.
Q1: Has your original dream come true?
Fang Sanwen: Although I can't say exactly what the "initial" in the question means, I would like to share an "initial" that was more than 30 years ago, when I was a primary school student, and as a farmer's child, my dream was to be able to go to the city and get a job with a fixed salary. In those days, it was probably a dream shared by many people.
So when we look back, we will find that over the past few decades, the actual life of the vast majority of people has been better than they dreamed of at that time. Of course, we should not forget the tide of the times, especially the progress of science and technology. As everyone said: personal efforts are important, but they also depend on the tide of the times. So we're in a good time, plus a little bit of personal effort, and gradually making our dreams come true.
Q2: Do you think ETF** is the ultimate destination for most small and medium-sized investors?
Fang Sanwen: I have no way to ** the last behavior of every small and medium-sized investor, but it can be seen from the subscription data shared by E Fund and China AMC in the morning that ETF has become the mainstream choice of more and more investors.
The reason behind this is simple. First, it is becoming more and more difficult for active management to create excess returns. The second is to use broad-based indices as a basic tool for asset allocation, which is not only an investment method that Buffett has always recommended, but also an investment method that has been proven to be very effective after David Svensson's investment practice for many years.
As of today, if someone asks me on Snowball what investment advice I have? My answer is very simple, use RMB to build a global portfolio through A-share on-exchange and over-the-counter ETFs, including China's, the United States, Japan, and Europe's, and make a broad-based portfolio of various countries, which is an investment method suitable for the vast majority of people. Will returning to ETFs become the ultimate destination for most small and medium-sized investors? I think it should be.
Q3: What is the essence of value investing? Does value investing require long-term holding?
Fang Sanwen: This is a very controversial topic. In fact, I'm not quite sure what the essence of value investing is, in my opinion, it can be superficially understood that when you encounter something, you feel that it should be more valuable than the existing **, and then**, this may be value investing.
Should value investing be held for the long term? Not necessarily. For example, if you are optimistic that something is worth 20 yuan, and it is sold for 10 yuan in the market today for 30 yuan, who can say that you are not a value investment? However, generally speaking, most investment targets have a certain time requirement to realize their value, and the probability of returning to value immediately today and tomorrow is not high.
Q4: The CSI 300 and the S&P 500 have been trending for all over the years, do you have anything to say about this phenomenon?
Fang Sanwen: This is a very normal phenomenon, and it is very normal for all markets to go up or not to go up. But as investors, we should be aware that when the market is not rising, it may happen to be the time when the target is cheaper and the probability of making money is higher.
I don't recommend you to buy any single **, or even a single wide base, I recommend you to do a global configuration. At this point in time, I think Chinese assets are probably relatively cheap overall, not only for the CSI 300, but also for Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong and the United States.
Q5: How can A-shares get out of the current downturn, and what do you think?
Fang Sanwen: There are two trends, one is already pessimistic enough, and there may be a reversal of sentiment at this time, that is, the so-called negative is good. The other is that the market continues, and everyone will be very excited, and then get out of the downturn. From the current point of view, it is more likely to be a reversal of sentiment.
Q6: How do you see the impact of real estate policy on the economy?
Fang Sanwen: It's an interesting question, but I'd like to fix it a little bit, it's actually the impact of the rise and fall of the real estate industry on the economy, not the policy.
Although many people may disagree, I think that the ups and downs of the real estate market are mainly the result of the participation of each specific market participant like us. Because housing is not only a consumer product, but also an asset, the trading behavior of each of our participants will affect the market **.
Moreover, the ups and downs of the real estate industry will have a very big impact on the economy. **, the net worth of an individual's household rises and consumer confidence increases. Secondly, the house serves as the main collateral of the entire financial system, and appreciation means that the financial system can release more money and drive the purchasing power of the whole society. Third, a series of industries such as construction, building materials, decoration, and home appliances involved in real estate will be pulled when the sales volume of real estate is the highest, making the whole society very prosperous. Of course, there will also be problems with housing prices, which will increase the difficulty of buying a house for people who have not yet bought a house, and produce a very strong sense of deprivation for the whole society.
If any kind of asset is too high, there will be a risk, and once the house is held, it will also trigger a series of reactions. Household net worth**, loss of confidence in consumption and investment. From the point of view of the house as the main collateral of the financial system, because of the decline in net worth, the loans that can be released by the financial system will decrease, and even the house price will be very strange when the house price is **, for example, many users will repay the loan in advance, and behind the disappearance of the loan is the reduction of social funds. In addition, the upstream and downstream industries of real estate will be affected downward.
In the present moment, these two feelings are intertwined. On the one hand, the ** of housing is still not cheap, and the sense of deprivation caused by not being able to afford a house still exists; At the same time, there has been a certain amount of real estate **, which has triggered a negative impact on the entire macroeconomy.
Q7: Shouldn't working people be whimsical and always fantasize about increasing their income and improving their living standards through **?
Fang Sanwen: On the whole, I agree, most of the numbers do not have the ability or the luck to double in a year. According to the average return of ETFs in various countries displayed by E Fund**, the median value is about 8%-10%. If a migrant worker uses the surplus of wage income to increase his income by 8-10% of the income, he can improve his life to a limited extent, but he cannot expect too much.
But I would also like to remind everyone that in the long run, with the increase of personal income and surplus, under relatively stable investment conditions, if you stick to it from the age of 25 to the age of 60, through the compound interest over time, it may be very obvious to improve your retirement life.
Q8: Judging from the statistics, the balance of residents' deposits has been maintained at a relatively high level, and corporate investment seems to be conservative. How do you see the issues behind the data? What can we do to break this dilemma?
Fang Sanwen: It's not necessarily a dilemma, but it's very normal. Behind this situation may be a reflection of the lack of investment confidence in society as a whole. However, when the deposit balance of a society is relatively high and the investment of enterprises tends to be conservative, it is also the most beneficial to shareholders. Because when the balance of residents' deposits is kept at a relatively high level, it will generally lead to a decrease in interest. And when a society's cost of capital falls and the willingness of enterprises to expand decreases, the shareholder returns of the stock will rise. So this is not necessarily good news for everyone, of course, this social phenomenon is very complex and cannot be fully explained by a single variable.
Q9: At present, many central enterprises represented by "China Special Valuation" have stable fundamentals, cheap valuations, abundant operating cash flows, and considerable dividend yieldsBut at present, the market does not seem to be too cold about this part. What do you think of this phenomenon? When will the "medium and special estimate" usher in its own "mean reversion"?
Fang SanwenFirst of all, this premise is not necessarily true, we can see that there are a large number of ** holding shares of such companies, which is not necessarily cold. Secondly, if it is said that the stock price has not risen, it is a very good situation for investors, and they can use relatively low *** these assets to get relatively high dividends and obtain better cash flow, which is a very good thing.
Q10: Is China still suitable for ordinary investment, and will it take the institution-based route in the future?
Fang SanwenI can be very sure that the main trading volume of China's A-shares is still contributed by individual investors, but at the same time, we must also see changes, and the share of common ** is increasing, especially the share of ETFs, which is a passive investment tool.
Q11: Is there anything you can recommend to people who don't have much time to manage their finances? The goal is to preserve the value of assets and outperform inflation.
Fang Sanwen: I have recommended many times that you can use on-exchange and over-the-counter ETF tools to build a global portfolio with broad-based indices. And the meaning of configuration is that you need to give up the judgment of ups and downs.
Q12: Is it true that most people are not suitable for investment in the first place, and can not be transformed by Xi?
Fang SanwenI think everyone is very suitable for investing, but it is very difficult to achieve excess returns by buying and selling**, so the key is to find an investment method that suits you, and again, it is to build a global portfolio with broad-based indices.
Q13: The current China General Internet Index andNASDAQ-100 indexWhich is more valuable as an investment?
Fang Sanwen: From a configuration point of view, it should be configured. However, at present, I think that the China Internet Index is lower than the Nasdaq 100 Index and more attractive, and the proportion of Chinese concept stocks in my own portfolio is also higher than that of the Nasdaq ** stocks.
Q14: At the 2018 Hong Kong Stock Summit, you said clearly that Hong Kong stocks are undervalued assets in the global asset category. In September 2019, you said that now is a good time to invest in Hong Kong stocks. In December 2021, I asked you again, are you still bullish on Hong Kong stocks? You answer: Of course. Isn't it stupid not to be optimistic about the stock price if it is cheaper? It's just that the Hang Seng Index has lived up to your love and trust for 5 years. My question is, are you still bullish on Hong Kong stocks? If you are still optimistic, how long do you think it will take for Hong Kong stocks to repay your long-term love?
Fang Sanwen: Of course I am optimistic. From the perspective of configuration, it is worth configuring at present, but it needs to be abandoned for its short-term ups and downs. If you want to buy ** specifically, you need to look at the specific company and the specific business model.
Q15: Is the CSI Dividend Index suitable for long-term regular investment?
Fang Sanwen: I think it's very suitable, I've always recommended the dividend index, not just because the dividend index has been in ** for the past two years, the core reason is that I think the dividend strategy is a good stock selection strategy, and I naturally delete the ** with a relatively high valuation.
Q16: What is the global competitiveness of domestic smart cars in the future?
Fang Sanwen: I think it's very competitive. I have a Tesla, and I have an ideal. Judging by the feeling of driving and riding, it feels like the ideal is doing better. At present, from the perspective of electric drive, in fact, each manufacturer is almost the same, and the real differentiation is the experience of riding and interaction, such as the use of Internet product design ideas to transform the interactive interface of the car, in this regard China's advantages are very prominent, and the global competitiveness is also very strong.
Q17: Since most of the goals in life are achieved, the conclusion is: But that's it!Why do we have to set a goal and try to achieve it?
Fang Sanwen: This is a question of life, it has long been said in the book: life is a mass of desires, and if desires are not realized, they are miserable, and if desires are realized, they are bored, so life always oscillates between pain and boredom. If I had to choose, then I would choose pain!Because boredom is really more painful than pain, and the goal flickering, oscillating between the achievable and the unattainable, it is life that is at its best, just like the current market, full of hope.