In the past two years of international affairs, the situation has been like a wave of unsettled waves, and I have to say so. The war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022 has not been extinguished, followed by the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in 2023, and now it is North Korea stamped "the year most likely to break out of conflict". North Korea has explicitly designated South Korea as "completely hostile," and Kim Jong-un has ordered the military to prepare. (Kim Jong-un redefined inter-Korean relations in his closing speech at the 9th Plenary Session of the 8th ** Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea).
At this critical moment, China once again stood up and called for all parties to calm down, hoping to ease the situation on the peninsula. But North Korea is preparing for war, and since Yoon Suk-yeol became South Korea's first, South Korea's policy has changed dramatically, no longer seeking dialogue and peaceful solutions to problems, as was the case during the Moon Jae-in era, but instead cooperating with the United States and Japan to increase pressure.
This choice is clearly wrong, and North Korea will never succumb to pressure. Yoon's policy has not brought North Korea to its knees, but has re-escalated tensions between the two Koreas. (Relations between the two Koreas eased during the Moon Jae-in era).
South Korea has conducted military exercises with its allies to pressure North Korea, and North Korea has responded with missile launches, escalating the situation on the peninsula.
The ROK and the DPRK, starting with the DPRK's successful satellite launch last year, have lost the good atmosphere at all. Remember the peace agreement "Panmunjom Declaration"?Now that it's scrapped, this is a big signal, which means that both the DPRK and the ROK are starting to aim for war. Kim Jong-un's recent rhetoric has become even more intense, saying that inter-Korean relations have become "completely hostile," and he has also called off "ethnic friendship" toward South Korea and intends to re-examine inter-Korean relations and reunification policies.
At the end of last year, Kim Jong-un also held a meeting with the top level of the North Korean military, and specially explained the preparations for war, saying that he would deal a devastating blow to the United States and South Korea as soon as possible. He also mentioned that the United States and South Korea have been engaged in more and more intense things recently, so North Korea must respond forcefully and completely eliminate their plot.
This has made even the United States feel the pressure. On December 27 last year, when Kim Jong-un asked the whole country to prepare for war, the United States suddenly changed its face, canceled its previous hardline policy toward North Korea, and quickly settled down. It's getting tense.
The United States issued an emergency message on December 28, saying that it had "no hostile intentions" with North Korea, stressed its willingness to resolve the Korean Peninsula issue through diplomatic means, and claimed that there were "no preconditions" for dialogue with North Korea. This statement contrasts sharply with previous actions by the United States, indicating that the United States, which is currently mired in two conflicts, Russia, Ukraine and Palestine and Israel, does not seem to want a conflict to break out on the Korean Peninsula. However, it is not enough for the United States to adjust its policy.
Just as in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, although the United States does not want the situation to expand, Israel continues to promote actions, which eventually leads to the spread of the conflict, in the situation on the Korean Peninsula, although the United States chooses to "give in", Yoon Suk-yeol**, who has a strong ideological concept, does not compromise. At the beginning of 2024, South Korea's three armed forces have successively launched military exercises, clearly demonstrating their hostility towards North Korea. The DPRK, on the other hand, has always taken a tough stance towards its enemies, and of course will not sit idly by and watch the "threat" from South Korea.
On January 5, North Korea used 47 artillery pieces to conduct naval artillery drills in five areas in response to South Korea's drills. North Korea's official media KCNA specifically warned South Korea to stop its provocations. South Korea, however, heeded the warnings, not only exaggerating and creating tension in its coverage of North Korea's artillery drills, but also describing North Korea's explosives blasting drills the next day as coastal artillery drills. This series of interactions has made the situation on the Korean Peninsula even more tense.
At a moment of inter-Korean tension, South Korea exaggerates the military actions of the North Korean side, which is clearly adding fuel to the fire and could lead to further escalation of the situation. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) has already issued a statement saying that "this year is the year in which conflict between the two Koreas is most likely."
North Korea's 1.2 million troops are ready, and if a conflict breaks out on the peninsula, China and Russia will inevitably be affected by it. For the sake of their own security, China and Russia must not sit idly by. On the contrary, although South Korea has more than 800,000 troops and good equipment, we can see that the United States does not dare to let go of the command of the South Korean ** team, and there are doubts about the combat effectiveness of the army.
Although the United States and South Korea have conducted a number of joint military exercises, the United States may not immediately intervene if the situation on the peninsula does break out. The defeat in the Korean War has cast a shadow over the United States, and even if it does want to participate in the affairs of the Korean Peninsula, it must do so when the United States can face the situation in Korea with all its might. At the moment, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict are running out of ammunition for the United States, so it is unlikely that the United States will personally intervene in the Korean War if it is not in a complete state.
It is no wonder that Kim Yo-jong, vice minister of the North Korean Labor Commission and sister of the North Korean leader, criticized Yoon Suk-yeol as "stupid and reckless".
However, regardless of the situation after the Korean War, war is not what the Chinese people want to see, because they love peace.
Seeing the escalation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula, China has urgently expressed its hope that the conditions for dialogue and consultation will be re-established for the settlement of the Korean Peninsula issue. At a press conference on January 5, the Chinese side said in response to a question on the Korean Peninsula that it has been closely following the development of the situation. With regard to the current situation, China calls on all parties to respond calmly, avoid escalation, and create the necessary conditions for the resumption of dialogue.
In addition, the Joint Staff Headquarters of the Ministry of National Defense reported that North Korea continued to conduct coastal artillery firing north of Yeonpyeong Island on the 7th. This has aroused great concern in the international community. Some analysts believe that this year may be the peak year of the conflict between the two Koreas, which has also become the focus of attention.
Kim Jong-un's redefinition of inter-Korean relations has attracted widespread attention. In addition, the abrogation of the Panmunjom Declaration and the readiness of the DPRK and the ROK to be ready for conflict are inseparable from the evolution of the situation on the Korean Peninsula. It has been pointed out that this is not just a problem of China-North Korea relations, and that the deeper reason may involve a complex game between Russia and the United States.
While North Korea is strengthening its combat readiness, the United States has stated that it has no hostile intentions. This statement has also become one of the focuses of attention of the international community. On the whole, the changes in the situation on the Korean Peninsula involve many factors, and the international community's concern and concern for the situation are deepening day by day.