If Russia really doesn't have two brushes, why has the United States been pestering Russia for so many years?
Think about it, will Russia be willing to completely fall to China and become China's little brother? From the point of view of willingness, it is basically impossible, no matter what Russia's current strength is, in their own eyes, they are definitely a powerful power, and the title of "fighting nation" is the best proof of this.
At the moment,The reason why China and Russia can coexist peacefully is mainly based on the balance and mutual assistance of strategic interests between normal countriesEspecially when the greater contradiction of the United States is still in the middle. That's why we often say that we should continue to deepen the strategic cooperative relationship between China and Russia, but this relationship is far from reaching the level of being allies.
Everyone knows this.
Therefore, it is completely impossible to want Russia to completely turn to China subjectively and become China's little brother, but there is a high probability that the great power game will not be completely activeThen, in the case of helplessness, will Russia passively fall to China?
Most likely, not.
One: Russia may want to be closer to Europe
From the point of view of geopolitical relations, Russia is, after all, a European country, and it is not only closer to Europe in terms of history and culture, but also closer to Europe in terms of distance, in their own heartsRussians simply cannot let go of their "superiority" as a "Caucasian".
Here is a quote from an article by Alexander Lukin, a well-known expert on China:
The reason for the arrogance of the Russians is that they are not Xi to seeing the Chinese who were poorer than themselves twenty or thirty years ago now gradually getting richer, and they are not Xi to the fact that the Chinese do not regard Russia as a big brother, but as an inexplicable strange person who can not live a good life."
Russia usually sees Japanese and South Koreans as rich people who can get things done, but it doesn't want to see China as a complete equal to itself, which may be why for so many years the interaction between China and Russia has only been reflected in high-level political interaction, but there has been little substantive integration between the peopleOn the one hand, it is difficult for the cultures of the two countries to blend together, and on the other hand, Russia's sense of superiority is too high.
This is where the problems between China and Russia at the software level lie.
There is a more important pointThe great power game, in fact, cares more about the degree of favorability and national orderAt present, the trilateral balance between China, the United States and Russia in the world has formed a balance, and once one side moves, this weak balance will be broken. And judging from the current strength of each country, Russia among the three countries obviously does not have the strength to break this balance.
After the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian economy has declined at a rate that is visible to the naked eye, and it may be difficult for the Russian economy to recover even in the next few decades.
Although Russia and China also have energy and first-class exchanges, but in fact, the advantages of the Russian economy still have to take into account geopolitical factors, do energy business with China, and do energy business with European countries, which cost is smaller and more profitable, Russia can see.
With an economy that is difficult to guarantee, does Russia have the courage to completely turn to China and make a break with the United States? We can't get our hopes up.
Perhaps the current sanctions on European countries for Russian energy in the Russian-Ukrainian war are more serious, but it can also be seen from the results that this kind of sanctions actually loses both, and European countries cannot always use energySuch sanctions are likely to be short-livedWill the energy business between Europe and Russia recover again in the future? We're not sure.
On the whole, judging from the current situationThe role that Putin wants to play may be the same role that China played during the US-Soviet hegemony struggle.
From this point of view, there is no reason for Russia to turn to China and be China's little brother, on the one hand, it is unwilling, and on the other hand, the reality does not allow it, and in the case of being close to Europe, Russia will most likely want to get close to Europe.
Second, the relationship between major countries is ultimately a transfer of interests
Russia is now revealing friendly relations with China everywhere, mainly because the United States is pressing too hard.
Sino-Russian joint military exercises, frequent exchanges between China and Russia, etcIn fact, the Russian side has two main goals, the first is against China.
Russia invites China to join Russia's military exercises and Xi even the entire production chain, and even no longer cares about territorial disputes, you know, Russia has always been worried that China covets the vast and sparsely populated Russian regions of Siberia and the Far East.
Russia has openly stated that it no longer sees China as the biggest threat,And the logic of what Russia has done is that China needs to return more money to RussiaIt can help Russia to ease the economic pressure a little.
In fact, this can be seen from Russia's arms sales, after the Sino-Indian border conflict, India immediately adjusted its armaments to buy from Russia, Russia completely ignored the Sino-Indian border dispute, and India reached an arms agreement, so to speakIn Sino-Russian relations, Russia is more of a businessman than a brother.
And the second meaning of Russia is addressed to the United States, which can be said to be the main meaning of RussiaHe wants to tell the United States that if it does not want to push Russia into the arms of China, it should not aggressively push Russia into the corner of sanctions. In fact, this can be seen from Russia's subsequent actions, although the Russian-Ukrainian war has pushed Russia and the United States to the brink of tearing their faces, but at present, the two sides have not confronted each other on this matter, and even now the two sides rarely talk to each other in the air.
I have to say that Russia's main strategic purpose is actually placed on the United StatesAll kinds of cooperation with China may only be a second-best choice.
3. Territorial contradictions are not the main contradictions
When it comes to the contradictions between China and Russia, everyone digs out history and opens their mouths, China is now capable, and it is necessary to settle new and old accounts together. In fact, to be honest, this statement is more of an addictionIn this situation, there is no reason for China to bring up these things again.
First of all, the territorial issue between China and Russia does not occur under the current international order, and we all know the answer to whether the current China will be isolated and helpless because of the unequal treaties signed more than 100 years ago.
Knowing history is not for the sake of shouting and killing, but only for the sake of learning from history. Today, more than 100 years later, the demarcation of the Sino-Russian border has long since returned to normal, and it is completely undesirable for China to use these things to provoke a border dispute.
So, there's a good chance we're not going to do it, and it's not worth it.
The main contradiction between China and Russia,In fact, it is the contradiction between nomadic culture and agrarian culture. This contradiction is simply unavoidable and unavoidable.
In fact, the biggest reason why China and Russia are getting along well is that the United States has been obstructing themEven in this case, Russia's domestic status quo is dire and dire, and it has no intention of turning to China and being China's little brother, and we are even more uncertain in the future.
If the Russian economy slowly recovers, and if the United States changes its strategy and throws an olive branch to Russia, the situation may become even more severe.
At present, the most likely and wisest choice for China and Russia is to form a community with a shared future, not to engage in alliances, but to make the two sides more closely connected.
The current situation in Russia is not optimistic, the Russian-Ukrainian war has consumed too much, and it is often said that mules are horses that come out for a walkRussia's war this time can be regarded as completely exposing its own shortcomings, and the war is about the economyThe Russian economy is not optimistic in the first place, and it is estimated that it will take too long to recover after the Russian-Ukrainian war. I don't know if the Russian top brass will be able to recognize this situation.
At the same time, the Russian-Ukrainian war is, to put it bluntly, a sword aimed at ChinaChina should also have a clear understanding of the situation and be prepared for danger in times of peaceThe United States and Canada are close neighbors, and later the two sides became friends, and now the situation between China and Russia is similar to that of the United States and Canada, and this relationship is worthy of Xi learning from China and Russia.
At present, the United States is the only one that is dominant, and it is doing everything in its power to squeeze out the second child, and at present, the Sino-Russian consortium has enough strength to compete with the United States, and China and Russia still have to grasp this relationship well.
Finally, to sum up,China and Russia can be partners and friends, but Russia will most likely not be China's little brotherIt is a matter of reality and history.