2023 is coming to an end.
Looking back at this year, the most important thing is still China and the United States. If we understand China and the United States, we will understand the whole world.
Given a comprehensive rating of the performance of China and the United States in the past year, the United States scored 90 points, while China scored only 80 points.
1.90 points for the United States
The United States scored highly, and the biggest achievement came from successfully curbing inflation. The interest rate hike reached 5 o'clock, and the economy was still very stable, and there was no collapse. It's so hard to find that it's as hard as dancing on stilts.
The United States is given a high score because it has adopted the correct modern economic thinking. The most fundamental idea of modern economics is to push the contradiction to the future to solve.
Now** borrowing 30 trillion, it seems that it is not good to be high. In another 5 years, this money will not be nothing. It is to exchange time for space while maintaining the vitality and momentum of the economy.
2.China 80 points
China's score of 80 points is also due to the fact that it has not taken the right pulse in terms of economic thinking.
China has taken the opposite economic approach, which is to leave the problems to the present and the space for the future. Therefore, we insist on high-quality development and refuse to release water to stimulate the economy.
This line of thinking seems healthier, more in line with self-restraint, and in line with virtue. But it is not very human, nor does it conform to the laws of modern economy.
Because for the modern economy, debt is not absolute, it is just a means to pull the economy. The most fundamental thing is to maintain the driving force of the economy, and other problems can be postponed, and major matters can be reduced to small ones. If we have to solve all the current problems, it is easy to lose the momentum of the economy.
Therefore, China originally had a 20-point question, but as a result, China just did not answer the question. Missed 20 points in vain.
And the United States, that is desperate, trembling, walking on thin ice to get a score of 90.
It's a pity, China!
3.The performance of China and the United States in the past year, why only look at the economy?
Because the competition between China and the United States is, in fact, only the competition of economic strength remains. All other strategies of the United States have failed, and now it is up to them to see who has more strength.
The United States' technological leadership, military leadership, dollar hegemony, alliance system, etc., still exist, but it is no longer possible to use them to contain China.
So next China and the United States can only compete for strength, economic strength.
4.Other manifestations of China and the United States
Otherwise, China and the United States have performed in a decent manner, with no outstanding achievements and no major mistakes.
This is because, after the fierce struggle of the past few years, China and the United States have now entered a period of relative relaxation. Both sides roughly understood each other's intentions, knew that they could not change each other in the short term, and now was the right time to take a break.
The United States is still basically dominated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and does not have much energy to deal with China.
In both conflicts, the United States has failed to perform at its best. Aid funds for Ukraine have not been approved by Congress, and nothing has been achieved in Ukraine**.
In the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Israel has completely lost its basic moral norms and the bottom line of humanity in the international community, which has also caused great annoyance to the United States. The United States has protected Israel in this way, and it will no longer be able to hold others to the same standards in the future. Turn the page in 2023
For these two conflicts, the United States deducted 5 points each, so the United States scored 90 points.
5.The biggest takeaway of the past year
Although we were not able to achieve satisfactory results economically, we still had a good year.
The biggest gain is that we have gradually gained a sense of the strength of the United States. The United States is now largely transparent to us.
Because in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States has already shown its family background, and all the means it can use have been used, and we have all observed it. And none of the US methods against China has been absolutely successful. This gives us a lot of confidence.
If the United States, as the party that took the initiative, failed to knock us down, that is our victory and the defeat of the United States.
6.Outlook for 2024
As the economic situation weakens further, the country will have to come up with stimulus policies to support the economy. Because after all, we can't afford a lower economic growth rate.
In fact, there is no contradiction between high-quality development and an appropriate economic development speed. Even maintaining economic momentum is a prerequisite for high-quality development. Without economic growth, where can there be high-quality development?
We still have policy tools, but we are reluctant to use them. So even though we only scored 80 points this year, we did leave room for growth next year. It's just a bit of a shame to waste this year's time. Now, the latest ** China will overtake the United States until 2037. It was 2027, or 2030.
Another direction worth paying attention to next year is external development.
Now the United States and the West are advocating decoupling and chain breaking, and chain transfer. In fact, that's where we're going in the future. Even if the United States does not transfer the **chain, we will transfer the **chain.
After the epidemic is over, what we need to do most is to go out and go to the world. We must take the initiative to transfer our first chain and production chain overseas, so as to better lay out our future global factories.
In the past, China was the world's factory, and in the future, China will establish a global factory, which is to spread our production chain all over the world to meet the needs of global consumers.
7.What to look out for in 2024
The most important thing to pay attention to in 2024 is that the past world pattern is gone forever, and a new world pattern is beginning to gradually take shape.
The main sign is that Russia will never be able to reconcile with the United States and the West. This crack will become a permanent fracture. As this rift forms, the rift between China and the United States, between China and the West, will also solidify.
Therefore, starting from 2024, all major countries need to re-establish their own international order, world order and global order on the basis of this kind of **.
We should be ready to open up to the outside world and cooperate with other countries on the basis of the separation of China and the West.
We ourselves have to dominate some of the forces, especially the Global South.
The United States has been doing this for a long time. Because the United States is the dominant player in this development. It is re-creating its circle of allies, the Security **Chain Alliance.
The United States is by no means just talking, and it is also a helpless choice for its own security. This is not something that can be changed by talking about the overall situation of international cooperation.
8.The first year of China's real independence
We have just seen what the United States is doing and how it is doing, and we have just realized that the United States is serious about doing this. Well, there is no turning back, so we can only do it like the United States and re-establish our ** system, ** chain system, and partner system.
2024 is the first year for China to go global and become independent on a global scale. It means that we no longer rely on the American system, but begin to develop our own system, just like we develop the HarmonyOS system, to create RMB payment, to have a whole set of our own independent system and system.
This is our most important task in 2024. The most important direction.