Reporter Liu Zhao and Xu Yiming.
The main force of lithium carbonate *** has been increased by 24 on July 26050,000 tons fell all the way to 9 on December 5310,000 tons, which aroused strong concern in the market.
Liu Youhua, deputy director of the wealth research department of Paipai.com, told the reporter: "From the perspective of supply and demand, the growth rate of new energy vehicles has slowed down after a rapid increase, but the lithium carbonate inventory of car companies and battery companies has always been at a high level, and there is no obvious digestion at present. In addition, due to the high profit of lithium carbonate in the early stage, the production capacity and output of mines and salt lakes have also continued to expand. At the same time, the market is more bearish. The market judged that there will be a surplus of global lithium resources next year, and driven by the expectation of oversupply, the market bearish sentiment will spread. In addition, the production cost of lithium carbonate is declining, prompting downstream enterprises to reduce procurement**.
The market outlook still needs to be observed
*In terms of *, as of December 5**, the main force of lithium carbonate *** reported 9310,000 tons, down 700%, a new low since lithium carbonate was listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on July 21, 24050,000 tons have fallen 6130%。In terms of spot, according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, on December 5, lithium carbonate ** was 1260,000 tons, a new low in more than 2 years, and a total of 43,980 yuan in the past 30 days.
For lithium carbonate ** fell below 100,000 tons, Xinhu ** researcher Zhao Xinyi believes that from the first end, the long-term ** volume certainty is high, and the current lithium price has fallen below 100,000 yuan, and many high-cost lithium salt manufacturers are in a state of large lossesFrom the demand side, the downstream purchasing sentiment has recovered to a certain extent, but the downstream manufacturers as a whole are still mainly based on clearing inventory;In addition, weekly inventories have not yet shown significant signs of improvement.
In order to promote the healthy and stable operation of lithium carbonate**, in the past two weeks, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has carried out several adjustments and regulations on the LC2401 contract, the main contract of lithium carbonate**. Guangfu said that the recent lithium carbonate ** has been affected by many uncertain factors, the transaction volume of varieties continues to expand, and the market is hot. In order to curb the overheating of market transactions, guide investors to participate rationally, and ensure the smooth operation of the market, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has studied and introduced targeted measures including the implementation of trading limits and the adjustment of closing fees.
How lithium carbonate will develop in the future will stop at He Li, general manager of Zhishan Investment, told the reporterAt present, lithium carbonate has broken through the psychological threshold of 100,000 tons and fallen below the cost line of most domestic lithium extraction enterprises. Considering that on a global scale, the cost of lithium extraction from Australian minerals is roughly in the range of 60,000 to 80,000 tons, and the first lithium carbonate may find a balance in this range.
According to the analysis of Everbright's research report, although the production side may still slow down due to factors such as profits and climate, especially due to the rapid development, some lithium salt plants have returned to a loss-making state, but with the import of lithium resources and the pressure of social inventory, there is still an expectation of further increase in spot circulation, suppressing market sentiment and demand.
It is estimated that the total amount of lithium carbonate in China will be about 990,000 tons in 2024, and the demand will be about 8790,000 tons. Guoxin ** research report said, "The excess of fundamentals is aggravated, and the general trend of futures and spot is still difficult to change." However, considering that the cost curve of lithium carbonate integration project is relatively steep, the supporting force of this cost line needs to be further observed when the fundamentals of supply and demand are difficult to say a sharp reversal. ”
Listed companies actively respond to changes in lithium prices
Although the lithium carbonate market has emerged, it does not mean that the market demand has weakened. According to the analysis of the Yangtze River nonferrous metal network, with the continuous growth of the new energy vehicle market, the demand for power batteries is still very large. Therefore, for lithium carbonate enterprises, how to maintain stable profitability in the process of improving and meeting market demand at the same time is a difficult problem that needs to be solved.
In response to the recent sharp fluctuations in lithium prices, a number of listed companies have issued announcements to actively respond to the current industry situation. On December 2, Tiantie Co., Ltd. issued an announcement that in order to avoid the adverse effects of lithium carbonate further, it was agreed that the amount of margin used by the two wholly-owned subsidiaries should not exceed RMB 13.5 billion yuan to carry out the first hedging business. In the future, the company will continue to strengthen the management of lithium carbonate hedging business to minimize the adverse impact of hedging transactions on the company's production and operation.
On December 1, Yahua Group also announced that in order to reduce the operating risk brought by the fluctuation of lithium salt products to the companyThe company intends to use the hedging function of the first tool to carry out hedging business according to the production and operation plan, effectively reduce the risk of product market fluctuations, and ensure the steady development of the main business。The total quota shall not exceed 200 million yuan.
The continuous decline in lithium prices** has also aroused strong concern from investors. On the investor interactive platform, dozens of listed companies in the lithium industry, including Sinomine Resources, Tianqi Lithium, Huabao New Energy, and Salt Lake Co., Ltd., were asked by investors about the impact of lithium prices on the company.
Tianqi Lithium said that under the premise of legally complying with the signed commercial terms, taking the overall interests of the company as the basic consideration, comprehensively considering the inventory of raw materials and products, market conditions, customer orders and delivery, the company's factory capacity release and other factors, and reasonably planning the company's lithium concentrate procurement rhythm and the production rhythm of the company's own factories and foundries in the future.
Sinomine Resources said that by accelerating the release of its own mine capacity, the company has greatly improved the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials in the lithium salt business, effectively reduced production costs and operating risks, and safeguarded the vital interests of shareholders and investors.
Ganfeng Lithium said that lithium carbonate has a certain impact on the company's operating income and profits, and the company will consider flexible adjustment of production capacity planning.
An interviewee told reporters that the price of lithium carbonate fell below the 100,000 yuan ton mark, which is a reflection of the market supply and demand, and is also the inevitable result of the development of the industry. For lithium carbonate enterprises and related parties, they should actively respond to market changes, strengthen cooperation and innovation, and jointly promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry.
The above-mentioned interviewee further said that lithium carbonate companies need to pay close attention to market dynamics, reasonably plan capacity expansion, and reduce production costs. At the same time, it is also necessary to strengthen technological innovation and research and development, improve product quality and competitiveness, and reduce risks by diversifying the layout and expanding market channels. In addition, for the first and industry associations, the supervision and guidance of the lithium carbonate market should also be strengthened to prevent overexpansion and vicious competition.
* |Station cool Hailuo production |Zhang Wenling review |Wang Lixin edited |Yan Liliang's final review |Zhang Liang