Text: Yang Guoying.
It has been nearly a month since the summit between the heads of state, has the relations between the two countries warmed up?
If it doesn't deteriorate, it's warmer.
In the midst of global hyper-turmoil, the East, not only the East, but also the West, should be lowered to the qualitative standard of friendship.
Of course, this qualitative criterion can be reflected in our prediction of China's economy and China's finance, and the medium- and long-term prediction of 8-10 years must be firmly determined in our hearts that there is a general trend - the irreversibility of the ultimate game between China and the United States, and the irreversibility of the U.S. stock suppression of China's economy and high-tech suppression.
High-tech suppression, everyone knows this, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and all high-tech that can get stuck in China's neck, these are the core of the United States' suppression of China's economy in the medium and long term**.
Stock suppression, I'll explain this.
The export economy has been our advantage in the past few years, including the OEM of countless American brands such as Apple and Nike in China, as well as the exports of local Chinese enterprises to the United States.
In the medium- and long-term irreversible suppression of China's economic stock and high-tech suppression by the United States, is there any contingency?
Of course it exists.
For example, if we break through the relevant stuck neck technology, the United States will choose to ease the pressure of the crackdown.
For another example, when there is a major external event, such as the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States urgently needs to develop shale oil and shale gas.
Therefore, after clarifying the inevitability and contingency of the ultimate game between China and the United States, we have also clarified the inevitability and contingency of China's economic future, which in turn indirectly clarifies the logical construction of the inevitability and contingency of the future investment and entrepreneurship direction.
It is related to the high-tech that breaks through the neck, and there will continue to be policy dividends in the future, but there are two points to pay attention to here, one is that once the neck is broken, the policy dividend will be greatly reduced, and the other is that among the thousands of troops who break through the neck, the probability will not exceed 10% if it is really able to become bigger.
It is also irreversible that the stock and exports to the United States and its developed country allies will continue to be suppressed by the United States and its allies in the future, which is also irreversible as a whole, which is either suitable for players who do investment or industry to seize short-term opportunities, or suitable for moving the industry to the sea as soon as possible.
At this point, the facts involve the leverage support point of China's economy.
The outward migration of China's export industry is suitable for going to the first place, and it should go to the first place
In addition to the outward migration of export industries, there are also China's high-speed global competitive advantages in the past five years, such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, etc., and its potential market should go under the inevitable long-term pressure of the United States and its developed country allies
In addition, after the medium and low process semiconductors and their equipment have been scaled, and after the future breakthrough to the medium and high process upgrade, including all the bottleneck high-tech breakthroughs at different stages, where should our potential possibility market go?
There is no doubt that it must be the emerging economies of the world, and it must be the countries and regions that China has consolidated in the past 10 years and the deep bonding of the Belt and Road Initiative.
As of the end of 2022, our two-way investment with the co-construction countries has exceeded US$380 billion, of which China's outward direct investment is close to US$300 billion.
In the past 10 years, we have exported nearly 3,000 US dollars to the countries along the Belt and Road, which will reach or even exceed this value in the next 5 years.
Based on the complementarity of the traditional allies of China and the United States and the diffusion of external regions and countries, the vast majority of the export of Chinese capital, Chinese production capacity and technology to the Belt and Road Initiative is now and in the future, and the vast majority of them will be locked into emerging economies in the future.
Among them, including Southeast Asia (except for Singapore, a developed country, the Philippines in the United States, and Myanmar, which continues to be in turmoil), so that there is a market potential of almost 6-700 million people.
South Asia, excluding India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, etc., has a market potential of nearly 500 million people.
Eastern Europe and Central Asia, where the former CIS countries are located, except for a very few countries such as Ukraine, with Russia as the leader, there are about 2The market potential of 500 million people, and importantly, the variety of resources involved here is complementary to the supply of raw materials with our manufacturing industry.
South America, led by Brazil and Argentina, based on the historical feud with North America, has become closer and closer to China in the past 10 yearsThe market potential of 500 million people.
The vast Africa, with a total population of more than 1.2 billion, although there are more war-torn countries and some ** or ** allies, but no matter how discounted it is, for China, there is at least a market potential of close to 600 million.
Also, the Middle East, the relationship between China and the Middle East, the fact is that the recent two or three suddenly warmed up, especially this year after we successfully mediated the historical feud between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the relationship between China and the Middle East, the fact has reached a historic new stage, here is not only the super complementary resources of China's manufacturing industry, at the same time, there is a vast market with a population of nearly 500 million and about half of them have high consumption power.
The above-mentioned emerging economic regions with uneven economic levels, and emerging economic economies with a total population of nearly 3 billion, are in fact the leverage support points of China's economy one after another.
For different regions and countries, China almost has different gradients of industries to match.
For particularly backward countries such as South Asia and Africa, we can continue to export infrastructure and related low-end manufacturing.
For Southeast Asia, South America and other countries (where there are both relatively underdeveloped countries and emerging economies) relatively underdeveloped countries, we can export infrastructure, can also export mid-end and low-end manufacturing, at the same time, the future is also our traditional transfer of production and re-export to the United States and Europe.
For the former Commonwealth countries and the Middle East, there is not only complementary resources, at least half of the population is a market with a certain consumption potential, in these regions, our mid-end and high-end manufacturing, as well as high-tech at different stages of breaking through the bottleneck of the United States, can be given priority to market expansion in these regions.
In the next ten years, under the irreversible situation of the ultimate game between China and the United States, we only need to consolidate the above-mentioned leverage support points one after another, so that we can finally realize the transformation of potential energy between China and the United States, and turn passive into active in the big cycle of the ultimate game between China and the United States.
For us as individuals, for investment, we need to study which industries and which companies really have the ability to expand and continue to expand in the above-mentioned leverage support point areas.
For entrepreneurship or industrial transfer, it is necessary to study the above-mentioned leverage point area, which area is really consistent with oneself or one's own enterprise.
Going out, not only large enterprises, including countless small and medium-sized enterprises and countless individuals, will surely become a high-frequency vocabulary and the choice of home and country in the next 10 years.
Let's talk about today's market.
Multimodal promotion toaiHot spot.
Recently, Google launched a new Gemini language model, once again focusing everyone's attention on multimodal large models.
gemini1.0 claims to have native multi-modal capabilities, able to process **, audio, images, text and ** and other forms of content, the performance is better than the existing "splicing" multi-modal large model, according to the technical documents published by Google, Gemini can not only carry out the conversion between two modalities (Wensheng diagram or Wensheng**) but also can handle complex tasks that require multi-modal conversion.
Therefore, the significance of multimodality is to bring more possibilities for AI applications, which is the key to the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI).
Recently, a number of multimodal AI applications have been unveiled, including the popular PIKA and the three major **turn** applications - Ali's Animateanyone, ByteDance's MagicAnimate and Microsoft's GAIA, in addition, a number of technology giants have also made new progress in the field of Wensheng**, such as the tool eMuVideo released by Meta and MotionBrush launched by Runway in Gen2.
The multi-modal large model has much higher requirements for computing power than the plain text mode, taking Gemini as an example, behind its powerful multimodal capability is a huge demand for computing power, it is rumored that Gemini has trillions of parameters, and the computing power used for training reaches five times that of GPT-4, however, unlike the dependence of traditional large models on NVIDIA hardware and ecology, the computing power required for Gemini training is based on self-developed hardware.
To sum up, we believe that the rise of multimodal large models will generate a higher demand for computing power, and Google, as a new force in self-developed computing power, is expected to stimulate the formation of a new competitive situation in the computing power market, thereby reducing the cost of computing power.
The first paragraphcrisprGene editing**fdaApprove.
Last Friday, the U.S. FDA announced the approval of two "sickle cell disease (SCD) gene editing", including the first "gene scissors" - CRISPR CAS technology **CASGEVY.
It is reported that Casgevy is jointly developed by Futai Pharmaceutical and CRISPR Medicine, which is an autologous cell**, which uses the CRISPR Cas9 gene editing system to modify hematopoietic stem cells from patients in vitro to make red blood cells produce high levels of fetal hemoglobin.
In China, significant progress has also been made in the field of gene editing recently, with the National Medical Products Administration announcing last Tuesday that the clinical application for YOLT-201 injection of Yaotang Biotech has been accepted.
YOLT-201 is an in vivo gene editing** that uses an mRNA-LNP delivery system to transiently express the gene editing tool to reduce the risk of off-target.
It has been reported that gene editing is expected to bring the possibility of permanent treatment for genetic diseases that are currently unavailable, and it has unique creative advantages and is expected to achieve a lasting effect of "one dose, lifelong effect".
However, while gene editing is the most advanced means of potential "set and forget", it has a significant problem – it is expensive, and the NGO Institute for Clinical and Economic Review, which specializes in assessing reasonable drug prices, has previously estimated that Casgevy's could be closer to $2 million.
In addition to the high cost of the drug, there is another risk of gene editing – off-target, where the gene editing tool may remove other DN** segments in addition to the intended target.
The European Union is the first in the worldaiRegulatory Bills Reach Provisional Agreements.
Recently, the European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament reached a consensus to reach a provisional agreement on the proposed harmonized rules on artificial intelligence, known as the Artificial Intelligence Act, which means that the EU's Artificial Intelligence Act is the first law in the world to deal with the regulation of artificial intelligence.
The main new content of the interim agreement includes a governance system for high-impact general-purpose large models and high-risk AI systems that may lead to systemic risks in the futureA revised management system with some enforcement powers at EU level;An expanded list of prohibitions;and the obligation of deployers of high-risk AI systems to undergo fundamental rights impact assessments before AI systems are put into use.
According to the European Council, the central aspect of the bill is to follow a "risk-based" approach to regulating AI based on its ability to cause harm to society, that is, the higher the risk, the stricter the rules, which means that stricter regulatory measures will be taken for high-risk AI systems.
According to what is disclosed in the current interim agreement, companies that violate the Artificial Intelligence Act in the future could face fines of up to 7% of their global revenue.
In our view, Europe's AI Act further strengthens its position in technology regulation, and the EU bills have been directly targeted at US tech giants, which has had a broad impact on US Silicon Valley companies, however, to a certain extent, the new legislation may hinder European technological innovation, thereby bringing further advantages to the US and UK, where AI and development are already more advanced.