The proactive fiscal policy will have a fixative star effect on next year's economy.
From the 21st to the 22nd, the National Financial Work Conference was held in Beijing to summarize the financial work in 2023 and study and deploy the financial work in 2024. The meeting clarified the work requirements in six aspects, including the implementation of the requirements of living a tight life and optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditureIt emphasizes the support work in eight aspects, including supporting and speeding up the construction of a modern industrial system.
In the face of the complex domestic and foreign situation, the current risk carrying capacity of various places is different, in order to better play the role of the first, first of all, it is necessary to maintain the grassroots "three guarantees" (to ensure the basic people's livelihood, to ensure wages, to ensure the operation), only in this way can we truly and effectively promote the best to do something, not to do. This is why the Ministry of Finance will give the highest priority to the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level next year.
At the same time, it is also necessary to follow the principle of establishing first and then breaking down, and strictly implement the established measures to reduce debt, so that the fiscal sector can truly free up its hands, focus on high-quality development, and strive to promote Chinese-style modernization.
This means that the evaluation system of fiscal policy not only requires the financial sector to strictly enforce fiscal discipline and strengthen performance management, but also needs to look at the specific behavioral feedback and response measures of the financial subject, such as how to carry out balanced transfer payments, how to define "tight days", and how to balance the relationship between the constraints of tight days and the incentives for the grassrootsFor example, in the support work of the eight major congresses, how to support the construction of a modern industrial system, how to balance the relationship between the market and the market, and how to evaluate its performance, etc., not only depends on the financial sector, but also depends on the recognition and acceptance of the mobilized departments of the fiscal policy.
At the same time, once the fiscal policy goal is not fully realized, what are the corresponding constraints such as punishment and compensation, which obviously determines the effectiveness of the policy and whether it can really affect market expectations. Policies that lack a restraint mechanism will make it difficult to stimulate benign economic and social interactions.
At present, to give full play to the positive effects of the fiscal policy, the key lies in the following two aspects of correcting the course.
On the one hand, the origin of finance is to take from the people and use it for the people, and the efficiency of financial use depends on who spends it and how to spend it. Entrusting fiscal funds to others or organizing expenditures may not have a significant effect, because fiscal policy should play a positive multiplier effect, not in the expenditure itself, but in stimulating the explicit preference of the market, that is, the fiscal policy to improve quality and efficiency, is to use fiscal funds, so that people can release their preferences, so entrusting fiscal funds to support the expenditure of institutions, which releases the preference of the first, rather than the market preference.
Only through transfer payments can the fiscal funds be directly transferred to the ultimate beneficiaries determined by the fiscal policy, so that the positive effect of the fiscal policy can be truly and effectively brought into playIn other words, the fiscal policy can play a role in reducing the chain of fiscal transfer payments as much as possible, and truly investing fiscal funds strictly in the field of public services, so that everyone can directly benefit.
On the one hand, fiscal policy has completely returned to the attributes of public livelihood. The current problem of insufficient domestic demand is not that people are unwilling to spend, but that there are concerns about disposable income and the inability to manage expectations for the future.
The essence of fiscal policy is not to increase aggregate demand through fiscal spending, but to stimulate aggregate demand. Both the economy and the market belong to the expectation management and safety control system, and one of the main reasons for the contraction of China's economic demand is the long-term absence and inadequacy in the field of public and people's livelihood. For example, it is difficult for people to get out of the dilemma of difficult and expensive medical treatment in the public medical and health system, whether the social security system can allow people to provide for their old age and survive the aging of the population smoothly, whether the unemployment system can help people overcome temporary difficulties, whether the scarcity of educational resources can be fundamentally overcome, and whether the social relief mechanism can be strong and effective.
Public livelihood issues determine the potential of economic growth, and the carrying capacity of the economic and social system to the risk of economic slowdown, as well as the ability to support the economic and social system, also determine the resilience and resilience of the economic and social system.
At present, China does not lack resources, but mainly in the distribution structure of financial resources in a broad sense, which affects the bouncing power of the economy. To this end, if the huge state-owned assets can mainly serve the public people's livelihood, establish a direct supply link with each individual, and truly transform all state-owned assets into public service guarantee for all residents, so that they can have medical treatment, support for the elderly, and rely on the distressed, then it will not only greatly provide an incentive and restraint compatible mechanism for state-owned assets, but also enrich the public people's livelihood and raise the bouncing force and growth base of China's economy.
At present, on the basis of consolidating the foundation of the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level and consolidating the work of reducing debt, the current fiscal policy should focus more on the investment of financial resources in the field of public people's livelihood, so that the economy and society can withstand the ups and downs and control the more complex economic and social situation.